With a straight face & complete honesty, I can say without hesitation, I’ve never
EVER seen volatility in any kind of mainstream market, like I’m seeing in the
crypto space now … “bat shit crazy” doesn’t do it justice … and if anybody tells
you they have a “handle” on this kind of insanity, they’re lying, simply cuz it’s
never been seen before … maybe the crash of ‘87 for a few hours comes close
in “Stock Bellies”, but this has been building steam for weeks and shows no
signs of going away … and in fact, it could get a helluva lot worse before it
settles down, IF EVER! … too many institutional dollars chasing coins cuz the
“alpha” available in everything else literally STINKS … and when the whales jump
into the pool, the waves are like tsunamis hitting price … expect some casualties
cuz there’s gonna be a lot of ‘em! … this is fucking stupid!
And of course, HFT’s being LP’s and pretending to be the scumbag banks in
crypto, makes it even more treacherous … none more so than BTCUSD, where
today sees bid/offer spreads between $10 - $300 depending on the level of
stupidity, where the spread can go from $20 to $100 in less than a microsecond,
or even out to $300 like early this morning, in the dumbest display of FOMO I’ve
ever witnessed in my entire career of trading … so quite LITERALLY, you could
be up $50 - $100 in a BTC trade, click the liquidate button, and that profit is now
a loss cuz the spread changed …. And of course, once they fill your liquidation
sell at the bottom, it’s right back up $100 to where it was when you hit the button
… and they wonder why we call them thieves? … “oh wait, I forgot … duh, market
conditions, DUH!” … and the bullshit never ends from these clowns!
I finally got in touch with Turnkey management early this morning, and they were
in error telling me the commission schedule for their new crypto pairs … bottom
line is this: only BTC & ETH are tradeable at Turnkey, the rest are not competitive
with other houses … you have to do the math, and when you do, what matters is
the total cost to trade and not simply the spread or the commission structure
… and after that, what matters is whether or not Turnkey trades are CHEAPER or
MOAR! EXPENSIVE than the other platforms that trade crypto using the
“open order” book paradigm … meaning, is Turnkey cheaper to trade than doing
“taker” [market] orders at other houses or not … and ONLY IN BITCOIN AND
ETHEREUM is this the case … the others NO.
And what we learn today about BTCUSD, is that with an IVIX INDEX LEVEL over
1,000+ the entire day, and a spread that can change hundreds of dollars at the
drop of a hat, you’re an idiot if you attempt to trade this, in the conditions we see
both yesterday & today … if it settles the hell down and comes off its meth bender,
than yea I can trade it … but equally well, ETHUSD [Ethereum] can be traded, and
so tomorrow for the PAMM / MAM I’ll be trading ETHUSD … and as I said,
conditions at Turnkey ARE BETTER IN ETHUSD, than at PHEMEX for the same
trade … and while ETH is volatile, nothing compares with the idiocy we’re seeing
in BTC.
Meanwhile over in Ripple, at times today it’s BEEN WORSE THAN BITCOIN in terms
of IVIX INDEX LEVEL & price moves … nothin like an almost 50% move UP in the
entire price of the coin over 48 hours, straight up to boot, to make you think we’re
all residents in “The Crypto Twilight Zone” … right now, this shit is so goofy it’s
moving as if it’s a penny stock on steroids … “Please!!! … Shut up & take my
money!! … and NO, we don’t FOMO anything EVER! … if this keeps up, the ending
to this will be uglier than anything you can dream”!
I’m somewhat disappointed we can’t trade ripple for the PAMM / MAM, cuz its
trading conditions & trade dynamics are excellent most days … the last 2 days
being exceptions to that rule, cuz we’re deep into “nutso” like I’ve never seen
… the only thing I’ll guarantee is that retail specs will get burned like never before,
and if they don’t slow the money wave down, the backlash tsunami will be
something to behold when it comes … but no matter cuz money is money, and I
don’t ever marry trading pairs … as I’ve said, I trade them, I don’t date them! … so
ETHUSD is a pleasant surprise to be able to trade BETTER THAN PHEMEX, and
quite frankly all the other houses as well … Turnkey even beats the houses that
have flat 0.05% “maker & taker” fees per side most of the time … the only thing
you have to keep your eye on is the changing variable bid/offer spread … but
most of the time if it’s below about 60 cents, it’s tradeable and worthy of attention.
Here in the New York afternoon, things are getting out of control once again
… Ripple starting to have full cent M1 ranges [100 points], and Bitcoin just had
an M1 puke of about $400 in seconds, with the spread blowing out to about
$30 - $50 … so once again, insanity on parade … they either make the loss doubly
painful, or they screw you blind on the profit side, neither of which is good under
any circumstance … meanwhile ETH lost about $12 in its M1 puke job.
And when conditions get like this, and they’ve been like this the entire day except
in ETHUSD, which has been trading somewhat “normally”, if you can say anything
in this space is “normal” anymore, the only thing to do is back away and come
back later … “sure, making big money is great, but you need to control risk to do
it right, otherwise you’re a trading fool … and I ain’t no fool"! … no trading today in
the Turnkey PAMM / MAM or “The Syndicate” … quite frankly, we need better
conditions than this “circus shitshow” is giving us now.
Outta here! … I’m full steam ahead! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment