“Maybe the dog realizes it’s an NFP Friday!”
Oh yes, another NFP Friday … oh joy, oh fun, as the Department of Unicorns
& Fairy Tales releases seasonally quadruple adjusted waitress & bartender
employment numbers this morning at 8:30 AM EST … and if it’s like usual
NFP Friday’s, we’ll get 10 minutes of “TNT”, quickly followed by the rest of
the day “Crickets” … “quite frankly, I’m not feeling the vibe, so that today’s
report is nothing more than a wad of warm spit to markets everywhere … just too
many other concerns at the moment for this number to matter … maybe wage
growth, or hourly earnings inside the report can shake things up, but I think it’s
gonna have to be sigma misses to matter”.
And that takes us to Friday position squaring, and more than likely chop,
more chop, and then mercifully it closes … could be all wet, but again today all
eyes are on the oil complex and stock indices … what’s OPEC gonna do with
the Ruskies & announced production cuts, and can the SP500 NOT crash into
the weekend? … outside of that, the usual “Brexit” bullshit infects Europe and
traders await next week for some British closure.
Oil traders look to the OPEC meeting in Vienna for some market guidance,
although I’m not really sure who takes these assclowns seriously anymore
… “if their lips are moving, they’re lying”, is more than likely the best approach
to take, when one of the Apparatchiks strolls to the microphone to wax
eloquent … bottom line is that they’ll say anything while pumping double
MAX, and hope you don’t notice.
Take everything before the NFP numbers, and everything 30 minutes directly
after the NFP numbers, and throw it away … noise not worth bothering with
or commenting on … since then? … 2+ hours in, and gold’s got about a $3 and
change range, doing nothing but inching higher then slamming lower … “WTF
is anybody supposed to do with this”? … it’s not a rhetorical question. Gold is
very slowly working higher, and unless you want to bite off “bigly & yuge” risk,
your only choice here is to position it and pray like hell the bullion dealers can’t
tank it … knowing bullion dealers the way I do, I don’t think you want to take
that bet … better to wait for them to tank it, which they surely will, not chase
price, and get price you want instead of what they give you.
Afternoon in New York, and while gold remains relatively strong, price action is
terrible … there is no volumes clearing, price gaps on the M1 from close to open
the next minute, and liquidity is non existent … if you had to go in and either
buy or sell a lot of gold, you have my well wishes and prayers. “To be blunt, there
isn’t anything here … there’s no there there … maybe you can make pennies, but
you’re risking dollars … in other words a typical NFP Friday, where after
cleaning out orders on bullshit mystery ticks and gaps higher/lower, the market
dies and traders hit the exit gate … out the door for the weekend”. Assuming the
afternoon is going to be worse than the morning post NFP, I’m not at all
interested in hanging around and playing with dealers.
No trades in the PAMM today, nor in the C2 options signal advisory.
Our C2 options advisory still has bullish positions on in gold, that I put on in
mid November, and that are working well … I’d like to see some kind of break
in gold on a “washout”, so I can take advantage of theta decay over the
Holidays, and a greater appreciation of the gold price into 2019 … when we get
it, I’ll do more positions in GLD … until then, why enter bullish positions
unless you get a pullback?
I wrote yesterday about crude oil … I’ll have more in the update blog on
Sunday. Today is/was a waste in gold … typical Friday, regardless the NFP,
where there isn’t much interest … after the NFP garbage, not even a $4 range
from the tips … extremely pathetic trading action … I would say, though, that
gold is supported at lower levels by the markets perception of a turn in interest
rates and the end of the hiking cycle the FED is currently on … the market
now, isn’t even expecting but a 12 bps. hike in rates in all of 2019, and is
looking for lower rates in 2020 … this is a far cry from the FED’s “dot plot” of
3 or even 4, 25 bps. rate hikes by the end of 2019 … unless that somehow
changes in the weeks and months ahead, I don’t see gold getting significantly
weaker in price.
I’m outta here early today … I can’t take watching the paint dry on the wall,
with zero going on … whatever gold wants to do, it's gonna do it without me
... until Sunday mia amigos … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!!
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