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Wednesday, February 22, 2017


“When gold bullion dealers play!”

Saying EARLY trading is “slow” today is an insult to “slow”. A $3 & change HVALUE at the NY open … “wait … what? … that’s right Skippy, absolutely zero going on in markets … USDJPY didn’t even reach its threshold 40 PIPS until Europe was well open, and since then its mucked around hitting off a few sell stops below 113 before quickly rebounding … no signals to take advantage, except a couple of sell signals near the bottom on the rebound that would have yielded zip … the reason for not taking them? … 1) zero movement in gold as the Yen rallies, and although they don’t have to correlate tick-for-tick, when Yen moves up gold should move up as well, and when you looked at gold it looked like the market was closed, and 2) more importantly intraday volatility has imploded to where the signal lines are all on top of each other and it takes only about 3 PIPS one way or the other to get the signal lines to change and give new signal direction … “no thanks”.

I guess the world is in “hurry up and wait” mode for the FED minutes this afternoon, although I don’t have a clue why anybody should think there will be any surprises; rate rises on the horizon, every meeting is “live” for a rate hike, and we will be watching economic conditions carefully. “As if they have a clue what they are doing”.

In other news, you got Europeans in panic mode, with the 2 YR. German notes yielding almost -1%; election jitters in the Netherlands & France the usual suspects; been hearing this crap forever, and it gives “talking heads” something to write about as to why the Yen is rallying on safe haven flows. [“Yea, I know; the Yen a safe haven? Sure, why not”.]

Bullion dealers tried didn’t they? market missed a lower RM=1 exhaustion move by 13 cents; dodged a bullet by not selling the rebound, for the simple reason strange stuff happens inside the ± $5 HVALUE, and even though we missed the buy at RM=1 by 13 cents, that’s a buy, and so which is right here cuz they can’t both be right? Gold is acting very strange today. What with Fed minutes coming out at 2 EST, and markets held hostage, look for anything.

And, as usual, the bullion dealer’s mess with both sides of the market as FED info is released, ho hum. Here near the NY close, a $5 HVALUE day & a $4 LVALUE day, and it feels like gold went $30 [cuz it did, back and forth between the high and low a number of times]. These are not the kind of days the algorithm does well in, and when you get trips back and forth between the high and the low multiple times, it usually means profits will be hard to come by; it’s simply the least probable scenario for gold, but it happens as today shows.

I’m gonna resist the urge to be a crybaby cuz nobody wants to hear about the details; this is trading, crap like this happens now and then. But, the fills today are one for the record books they are so bad; you have no idea. If your limit orders don’t get hit, it’s better than what the market fills will do to you; now that I know that, time to adjust my thinking a little and I’m gonna have to be early to the trade.

Total of 3 trades today [2 gold & 1 USDJPY], and what I made yesterday I gave back, plus maybe $15 bucks or so total, I haven’t added it up yet. What should have been a great day got sidetracked by market issues and “speed of light” trading where my liquidation orders should have been resting in the market; my fault, make no mistake, but all the exhaustion moves were untouchable and I wasn’t short to buy down at that level.

No matter, tomorrow is another day, and the “market tuition” we paid today [on fills] is gonna be worth it many times going forward .

Spreadsheet will be posted later tonight in updates, as right now I’m having some Windows 10 problems with Excel but I know how to fix it; it just takes a while. I’ll be back later with the spreadsheet in “Updates”. I’m outta here.

Have a great day everybody!

UPDATE: Ok, Excel spreadsheet problems fixed, directly below the PAMM/MAM spreadsheet from today.

[click to enlarge]

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