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Wednesday, November 23, 2016


“When you’re pretty much ready to try anything.”

“Well, I got news for you; it ain’t the Chicago river next to the CME in Chicago either.”
Ok, trading pretty much finished for the week, as traders all over the world [except those who have a complete “death wish” for their trading account] take the U.S. cue from the Thanksgiving Holiday, and basically call it a 5 day drinkfest weekend. Coming into today and turning my laptop on, my only thoughts are that any cadaver at the morgue has a higher EKG than gold [or any other market for that matter. So, if for any reason you are thinking about trading Holiday markets, simply send me the money you anticipate losing, and I’ll send you back an autographed pic of me on the beach along with a quick note on how the Mrs. plans on spending [your] her money; this way we can make it all warm & fuzzy personal, and you don’t have to dream up an evil LP who took your money. The way I see it, everybody wins!
I wrote the other day about how gold died about 6 months into Reagan’s landslide election victory over Carter back in 1980; and I also told you how I left the gold pit for good after a day where the entire daily range for the day was like $1.80 [maybe it was $1.90, but after all these years since, I’m getting a little fuzzy thinking about it; all I really remember is it was below $2. “And now that I’m in my late 20’s … well … I ain’t what I used to be!]. Well, there were plenty of “locals” [professional floor traders] that refused to believe gold had changed, and were looking eagerly forward to $20+ ranges returning “any day now”; some of them stood there for years waiting, while other markets took over like Swiss Franc and then the SP500 futures, and for practical trading purposes made trading gold look like “corn spreads”. “Talk about denial, these guys were it!”
Honestly folks, I’ve been pushed these last months, really on a daily and weekly basis, by traders [new, experienced, big, small, and everything in between] to “consider” [which of course means “get up off your ass and do it!”] adding back into the mix of markets I follow and offer volatility algorithms, to tackling “Yen” again and make it available. It’s something I’ve thought about since Spring, because unlike any other FX pair on the planet, USDJPY affects and influences gold & the stock indices, and I don’t want to be like the guys on the floor that were in denial and simply say, “well, it doesn’t matter!”, when in fact it very much matters.
Over the Summer and into Fall here, I’ve taken a “radical” approach with the volatility algorithm in applying it to the Yen; more so because FX has become almost untradeable with previous algorithms I have used. I want the core logic, mathematical philosophy, and intraday volatility to be above average and that remains the same, but I’ve had to “re-think” how to optimally initiate trades [long/short, there is no bias in USDJPY like there is in gold] for the lowest risk / highest profit potential, all the while keeping probabilities of success in the 90th percentile. Since the Spring, when I haven’t been working on other stuff, I turned my attention to USDJPY, taking a “top down” approach with the broadest problems tackled first. It’s been a great intellectual challenge with some bumpy moments, but having all kinds of probability and statistical tools as well as all the market data I could ever want, I do have an M1 volatility trading algorithm in USDJPY that I am going to release after I finish the stock indices; more than likely you’re looking at end of year for this as I have to write the manual and gather the data for all of you.
Now, I know what you’re thinkin’; “hey, you said you weren’t doing FX, so what gives?” Well, “what gives” is that I got tons of clients [small, large, and small institutional traders] pleading with me for answers RE USDJPY, that won’t leave me alone until I do it. Plus, from a “one trick pony” standpoint, it makes sense to have the deepest, most liquid FX pair as an option to trade any time day or night.
My motivation here is to give you “options”; whether you’re a small or very large trader doesn’t matter in USDJPY; this market can handle anything you got, or any size you want to do and dwarfs stock indices and gold combined. It wasn’t something I really wanted to do, but I don’t live in “denialville” either, and I can logically understand and appreciate the need of many of you of having a viable volatility algorithm in USDJPY. So, it’s coming after the stock indices manual. [Note: don't look for any other FX market anytime soon.]
Turning to gold today … I’m glad I’m taking the week off, and I know that when you get into Holiday week’s, experience tells me to back away because liquidity and volumes are about half of what they are normally … and if there’s ever a time for “stupid shit” to happen, it’s a week like this! … today is a perfect example of this, and seeing gold drop $15 in about 3 seconds from 1203 to 1188 should remind all of you what the break from 1300 down to 1274 back on October 4th was like; even century marks in gold always have serious stops associated with them; it’s called ‘situational awareness’!”
Sure, I could have wandered in and taken some of the first exhaustion moves and made a buck or two today, but I don’t have ESP, and would rather enjoy my Holiday; I hope you did the same!
No trading tomorrow or Friday, and so I’ll be back on the blog on Monday; until then I’ll be working on all these manuals and data charts to put things together for all of you. To those of you in the U.S., have a great Thanksgiving Holiday and enjoy family and friends; markets will be here on Monday when all of us come back. Until then …
Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!

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