Imagine you’re in space, and all of a sudden your ship is drifting faster & faster
off course, and there’s nothing you can do to correct it … finally, you realize you
got too close to the gravitational pull of a black hole … say goodnight Gracie
…. Now you’re trading, and orders go horribly wrong … off market fills and
slippage dominate … welcome to the “black hole” world of scumbag central bank
manipulators and their BFF buds, the TBTF & TBTJ scumbag big bank LP’s … it’s
like there’s a gigantic magnet pulling dollar bills out of your account … nobody
writes about it, nobody talks about it, cuz if they do they won’t be part of the
financial MSM propaganda machine much longer!
While on the one hand everybody is told world markets are deep and liquid,
never in the history of trading have volumes & liquidity, as measured by the ease
of which to get a specified order size executed, been as low as they are now
… and going lower with each passing week … meaning, nobody but nobody is
willing to let resting orders sit in a market, and then get sucked into a black hole
from which you can’t escape … in other words, everyone is “gun shy” … big
money knows it’s a “rigged game”, and they’re only looking to do something at
the extremes of their price models … and like a lion pouncing on a poor lamb, it’s
over in a few seconds … volume explodes, price jerks & gaps [lightning], and
then it’s “crickets” for hours or days ‘til the next time.
I’ve said before, there are no such things as “trends” … there are only waves of
buying / selling, getting exponentially bigger as time goes by, and the simple fact
is, the scumbag banks at the middle of every transaction in financial trading, are
playing and manipulating order flow … to call these thieves “liquidity providers”
[LP’s] is akin to describing the Mafia as “personal loan consultants” … isn’t it
amazing in this world of QUADRILLIONS OF $$ IN DERIVATIVES EXPOSURE, none
of the big banks ever get in trouble … remember, you can’t “hedge” risk of the
system away into the “Ether”, where everybody is protected from adverse price
risk and dislocations … so, where is the risk at from these banks “scumbaggery
& fuckery”? … EASY PEEZEE: “the risk is passed on to consumers via price
hikes and losses incurred by either specs or businesses who produce end
products and/or services … in other words, it’s invisible! … you only see the
price hike in your car insurance for no reason … you don’t get to see the adverse
effects of the people in the insurance company who lost millions in derivative
exposure to the company’s bottom line … guess what? … and while the
“gamers” of the system make money, the losses the company eats ain’t gonna be
affecting management … those losses are passed onto you!”
We exist in a trading paradigm so FUBAR [excluding crypto], it defies common
sense & logic … only when you view it through the prism of “order flow
manipulation” and who’s at the heart of that and how are they operating, can you
possibly understand and make money … don’t wanna go there Skippy? … OK,
just remember ignorance can be fixed, but delusional stupidity can’t.
What I’m getting at is simple … 1) Bitcoin, and to a certain extent other crypto
like Ethereum, are the purest forms of trading that are likely to exist and allow you
to participate … why do you think Apparatchiks & POLS hate crypto with a
passion? … don’t be stupid, it ain’t cuz “criminals” use it … “criminals” use cell
phones & drive cars … do we ban those? … it’s cuz they can’t control or
manipulate it for their own nefarious ends, like the Lounge Lizards at the FED do
with the fiat dollar … that means you have to be discriminating in choosing the
market(s) you choose to trade, if you’re not primarily trading crypto … I’ve
already outlined why you should be trading crypto at IQCENT, primarily Bitcoin,
but in case you just landed from Mars and are late to the party, here’s the deal
… 1) account held in dollars, deposited with crypto and converted, 2) no
commissions, 3) bid/offer spread in BTCUSDT of 1 or 2 cents, 4) market open
24/7/365 … open your account via my affiliate link in the upper right hand
column, it costs you nothing but helps me a tiny bit.
That brings me to my second point … 2) even though volumes and liquidity are
evaporating everywhere in all markets, you still have to stick with those that have
the highest “relative” volumes & liquidity … in FX, the major dollar pairs, in
“Stock Bellies”, the 3 U.S. major indices, and in precious metals gold & silver
… 3) you have to trade market(s) that have decent 20 Day Range MA’s to insure VIX
is present, and you have to continually watch to see if VIX is dropping … if it does
so significantly, you have to switch out of that market and trade something else
… 4) you have to go where the TOTAL COST TO TRADE IS THE LOWEST, cuz if
you don’t do that you’re throwing money away for absolutely no sane reason.
I have already stated that volume is the key to regular derivatives trading, no matter
the market … however, recognize that raw data volume can be analyzed and viewed
differently, from different perspectives, and can be filtered as well … what I see,
you may not … what you see I may not … in other words, volume data in trading
can manifest itself in many different forms, and how you visualize and interpret this
data in real time is key … I would advise people to concentrate their efforts on
volume, and forget about “trending” horseshit most take as gospel … and the
shorter your timeframe for trading, the more important this becomes.
Volume doesn’t mean Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat when it comes to binary options
trading … regular binary options trading in large traditionally established markets
like USDJPY or gold, for example, is a joke … the payout ratios are never high
enough to justify the bet on an m1 time frame [or any other time frame for that
matter] … only on “OTC binary options” will you find payout ratios that are 95%
… but there’s a catch … these markets have nothing to do with reality and the
markets they supposedly represent … it’s strictly up / down betting with house
client accounts, where the house acts as their own LP’s … and in this type of
environment, all that matters is the collective psychology of the participants and
how they bet based on known incorrect assumptions about probability theory and
the “theory of runs” … I can take any 10 group of people, and if I start flipping a
coin, if either heads or tails comes up 3 times in a row, “Hoover Dam” near all of
‘em will start betting on the other side of the coin, and in any kind of “run”, their
betting strategy gets destroyed … and what’s worse, is that they don’t recognize
there’s no way to get the money back without significantly increasing bet size
… and when they do that, it happens all over again sooner or later [mostly
sooner] and the account is “buh bye” … of course, the house knows this!
… question is, do you? … that’s why I say in the binary options manual that
1) if you trade you have to go the “OTC” route, and 2) you have to play the
“runs” and leave the rest of the action alone … I’ve outlined how I would play
potential “runs”, and by going over the history of the “fantasy” trading action
[most likely driven by some kind of very sophisticated AI program from the LP],
what invariably shows up more than what you’d see in regular trading, is “runs”.
I don’t do much personal trading in binary options, but for very small accounts
looking to build higher balances WITHOUT the risk associated in normal trading,
it’s got substantial merit … but you have to know WTF you’re doing and how
you’re gonna attack the house … playing “chop” will only get you destroyed cuz
the “run” is coming, and it’s coming more often than you realize … how you
define “runs”, or how you look for the setups for “runs” can be debated … I’ve
researched the space and I very much like my approach … that doesn’t mean it’s
the only way or the best way … only that I like it and it works over time … quite
frankly, I’d encourage anybody to do their own research and validate my approach,
or do the necessary research and develop another approach … in any event,
bottom line is the house ALWAYS WINS from the collective of players, and they
aren’t gonna let Gazillions of players bet the m1 “chop” and walk away winners
… they know for a fact, that human psychology ALWAYS HATES “RUNS” and bets
the other way … don’t believe me? … go to Las Vegas and hang around a roulette
wheel and see what happens when either a “red” or “black” number comes up
more than about 4 or 5 times in a row … to save you a visit, I’ll tell you … money
comes pouring out of the ceiling & walls to bet the other side … same thing
happens when any OTC binary option starts going up/down 9 out of 10 m1’s or
even higher.
Like I said, the only PURE, free market that exists is Bitcoin … it’s the “KING” of
crypto for a reason, and that reason is that there can only ever be 21 million BTC
in existence and no more … there cannot be any inflation of coins … to my
knowledge, it’s the only coin that has this stipulation, as all other coins can have
additional coins created and released … Bitcoin can’t be “cheated” like fiat
… there is no CNTRL-P machine spitting out fiat BTC for Apparatchik agendas
… proof of work or proof of stake legitimizes who owns the coins … quite frankly,
I don’t give a shit who loves or hates Bitcoin … it’s simply a tradeable market that
moves, has as close to ZERO COST TO TRADE AT IQCENT, and it’s exactly like
the blimps on your trading screen for EURUSD, the SP500, or any other market
you think you’re trading … in reality, you ain’t trading shit!, and have no claim to
the asset you’re trading! … you’re making bets with a scumbag bank or HFT.
Sure, BTC has “whales” that shove the price up/down … so what? … every
so-called market that has ever existed has had big players try and corner the
market, from agricultural products like corn & wheat to metals like gold and silver
… “whales” add volatility to a market, cuz their actions are in their own self
interest, which isn’t this what every trader wants? … government Apparatchiks
manipulate prices without care of profit or loss cuz their actions DECREASE
volatility … they could care less about P/L, they have other agendas for political
purpose … when in doubt, hit the CNTRL-P machine for more money to throw at
a market until you get your wish.
Turning to this week’s markets, the same intractable problems arise every week
inside the casino … there is such a dichotomy in terms of functionality between
BTC and everything else, it really does some days leave me shaking my head in
disbelief … “Stock Bellies” have died, their 20 Day Range MA’s have fallen off a
cliff, and you can add crude oil to that … gold & silver, without risking
unacceptable chunks of dinero, and that’s before horrific slippage which only
makes it worse, are untradeable in their present form … that leaves FX.
And no matter how you “cut the cake”, “thread the needle”, or make sacrificial
offerings to the aliens in the 6th dimension who run human trading games for
their own laughter and enjoyment, there are 3 items which are inescapable
… 1) FX markets exhibit “speed of light … crickets” trading patterns that bring
about “Loser Formations” far too often to be random, 2) ranges lack
CONSISTENCY in most pairs, meaning one day you get a 150 PIP range, and the
next you get 55 PIPS, and 3) “Trading Ratios” [TR] disappoint most of the time
the last half of the trading day [which not incidentally, is where the New York
session is] … combine all 3, study the data, and there’s only one conclusion any
trader should make.
“Embrace the Suck” [Iteration # (pick a large one, preferably in the 7 digits)], take
a deep breath and move your ass over to USDJPY … sure, some day [maybe] the
YEN slows down and both EURUSD & GBPUSD [Cable] ramp up, but we ain’t there
yet, and there aren’t any tangible signs of an imminent VIX pickup … quite frankly,
it’s a tossup figuring out which one is the bigger central bank & Apparatchik
fuckup … and it leads to trading either one with 1) too many days of lousy TR’s,
and 2) even if you get the perfect spot to get long or short, who wants to wait
around 30 minutes for a 5 PIP gain? … well, not me that’s for sure … and
watching Friday’s action in EURUSD after U.S. retail sales, and then consumer
sentiment, all you get for your efforts is the “Loser Formation” of sideways
movement … seriously, this shit couldn’t move ± 3 PIPS to save its sorry ass life
… no rally to sell, and no break big enough to buy … all the while “chop chop”
where only the scumbag LP bank wins … so, I’ll deal with the warts and blemishes
of USDJPY for the PAMM simply cuz they aren’t as bad as other pairs, and it wins
by default … by concentrating here, unless it dies, we’ll get our algorithm trades
in greater quantities for profitability.
Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.
Onto the week! … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of
sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment