Is trading any financial derivative a “random process” for success [profit]?
… IMHO, definitely not! … my proof for this is the stark fact that I, along with
other successful traders throughout the ages, SIMPLY EXIST! … and we’re not
supposed to … that must mean, that trading can and does yield POSITIVE
RETURN EXPECTATIONS … meaning it’s not random doesn’t mean probability
takes a back seat!
Contrast this with Las Vegas, and the games of baccarat, craps, and roulette
… each has house edges of 1.06% - 1.23%, 1.41%, and 2.64% [European wheel]
respectively … close to a 50/50 split, but not quite …at their most basic levels,
they are “binary systems” … in trading we have bid/offer spreads, and scumbag
LP slippage to deal with, but again it’s a “binary system” with either 1 of 2
outcomes … “how many people do you know that make a living in Las Vegas
playing craps? … baccarat? … roulette? … I lived in Las Vegas for about 10
years before moving to the Caribbean, and I can tell you ZILLIONS tried, but
ZERO were ever successful … and if they were somewhat successful over any
length of time longer than about 3 - 5 days, casino management would like to
“have a word with you!” … so the $64,000 question becomes why not?
… EASY PEEZEE: “You cannot consistently win at a game that has NEGATIVE
RETURN EXPECTATIONS ON EVERY BET MADE … no system or bet
arrangement can ever overcome NEGATIVE MATHEMATICAL RETURN
EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENTLY! … EVER! … and the casinos are proof … all
of the casino games I listed are “mutually exclusive” in terms of one game to
the next one … in plain English, that means dice, cards, & the roulette ball HAVE
NO MEMORY … what happened last game has ZERO effect on the next game
… the statistical probabilities are fixed on every game, so unless you’re
cheating some how some way, you can’t consistently win … again, if you win
too much, casino management would like to have a “word” with you!
What makes trading different is that one m1 to the next one definitely does have
an influence on future price movement … they are NOT “mutually exclusive” [well,
in this era of government manipulation, where money is no object cuz they can
always print more, the argument does exist wondering if this premise is still true.]
And here is where I need to “cut the trading cake” into separate pieces, cuz the
premise & rules are vastly different … there’s regular trading, there’s regular
options trading, and then there’s binary options … and specifically in the binary
options sub category, there’s “OTC binary options” … for our purposes, I’m not
looking at regular options trading, and I’m not even looking at regular binary
options trading … rather, I’m focusing on OTC binary options trading … and as I
point out in the binary options manual, OTC options are a whole other “kettle of
fish” versus regular binary options trading … the differences being 1) the players,
and 2) payout ratios.
As I write this, here in the early AM of the day before the sun comes up and
inflation data coming in about 2 hours, payout ratios that track normal BTCUSDT
trading are 51% … meaning, if you bet $1 that the next m1 in BTC is Up or DOWN,
and you’re right, you win 51 cents … bet $1 and win 51 cents if you’re right but
lose $1 if you’re wrong? … WTF is that? …who in their right mind would take that
bet with so little payout? … conversely, the BTC “OTC binary option” payout ratio
is 95% … bet $1, win 95 cents if you’re right and lose $1 if you’re wrong … why the
vast disparity? … it’s cuz of who the players are.
In OTC binary options, all of the players are simply accounts at IQCENT … no
banks, no “whales”, no hedge funds … only spec accounts at IQCENT with the
house acting as their own liquidity provider to take the other side … with OVER 1
MILLION+ ACTIVE ACCOUNTS, that’s quite a pool of specs … WHOA! … from the
houses perspective, it’s like running a giant roulette wheel, only the house edge
is DOUBLE a casinos advantage of 2.56% versus their 5% edge [95% payout]
… and you wonder why they put this together? … wonder no more!
But unlike a roulette wheel [or baccarat table or craps game], the players betting
OTC options very much influence their betting habits based on a whole host of
incorrect assumptions that are gonna lose them money … [“God bless losing
accounts, cuz without them there would be no depositors to put money into the
system for winners to take out!”] … so what matters here is only that the house
has to make money from the collective of total accounts playing … and with
themselves acting as their own LP, you can readily assume they have their own
best interests at heart … so, while BTC is rallying in the spot market, OTC binary
options can be going down, and vice versa … as well, the price can be close to
spot, or it can be anything at all! … spot at 30K, while the OTC binary options are
at 22K, or 35K? … sure, why not? … it’s simple bets over specified short periods
of time [5 seconds to 30 minutes] … so natch, your intuition or “gut feel” for a bet
is going to consistently lose you money … they will grind you down into dust!
… the house ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BRING ABOUT “RUNS” IN PRICE IN ORDER
TO GET THE COLLECTIVE TO LOSE MONEY.
Go to any casino and watch what happens on a roulette wheel when either “red”
or “black” numbers appear in a row more than about 10 times … money falls from
the sky betting the opposite color … and the streak just keeps on going … it ends
when the table has no more players that have any money to bet the opposite color
… at that exact moment the opposite color shows up … the manual goes into
detail with what to look for and how to play OTC binary options … too many
people, especially Newbies, are looking, searching, and researching for the “Holy
Grail” of trading … meaning they want 100% guaranteed results on a specific
outcome … that is impossible and can never happen, cuz if it did there would no
longer be any game to play or any market to trade!
All I or anybody else can do is define “statistical relevance” with regards
outcomes … trade choppy bullshit markets and you get the results you should
expect … play “runs”, and casinos would kill for the kind of probability odds
you will be enjoying … simple as that! … that’s not to say “my way is the only
way” … I’m not nearly presumptuous enough to think that, as there are infinite
numbers of ways to “skin the cat”, “cut the cake”, and/or “blindside the house”
… at the level of binary options expirations, you can track price, volumes, ranges
of the m1’s, and the list goes on and on … what matters is pinpointing when a
“run” starts and how you want to trade it … do this, and trading OTC binary
options becomes a POSITIVE RETURN EXPECTATION game … millions of people
a year visit casinos and cuz they read some book, or read an article online, they
take their money and throw it away on games they have ZERO chance of winning
CONSISTENTLY … the casino will do everything in their power to keep you there,
including free rooms and meals at the buffet, cuz they know the longer you play
the more they take … these same people shun trading cuz it’s too “risky” … “the
universe DOES NOT REWARD STUPIDITY AND/OR IGNORANCE!” … you can fix
“ignorance” … you can’t fix “stupid”.
Directly below, from this morning in OTC BTC … this is a typical small run you’ll
see quite often in all of the crypto pairs.
And while this yielded 5 winners and 0 losing trades over a 39 minute period,
what would have been the result if anybody simply sold every m1 given the rules
for entry of 3 in a row down for down price betting? … well, 25 wins and 14 losses
… (25*0.95) - 14 = $23.75 - $14 = +$9.75 … so, my MAX risk never exceeded $1 per
bet, and I would have won $9.75 on a series of bets … yes my friends, “runs” do
work! … and given the “rules of the game” as I define them in the manual, MAX
risk before the white TEMA line turns flat or positive [if betting down] would more
than likely not be greater than 2 or possibly 3 bets … if I assume the worst, which
is 3, then I can summarize by saying that on any POTENTIAL RUN I TRADE, my
max loss is only gonna be 3 bets, or on a longer runs a series of 3 bets.
So looking at my results, my typical risk is about $3 per $1 bets in a small
unsuccessful run, while my reward can and will be consistently & substantially
higher … enlighten me here … what’s not to like about this? … and do you think
Las Vegas would be overrun by people mortgaging their house to do this at a
table game if offered [trust me, it won’t be!]? … of course they would! … yet, cuz
they don’t understand the true nature of what the Hell they’re doing, they’ll tell me
“trading” is too “risky”, but gambling is OK cuz “I’m due!” … GTFO!
And this is just one side of the trading coin … there’s regular BTC trading, where
IQCENT has the best trading conditions going … 1 or 2 penny bid/offer spread,
and NO COMMISSIONS … I use the MT4 charts for m1, and I put the IQCENT chart
at m3 … I like the perspective … then I use the signals off the MT4 on the m1 for
trade buy/sell signals and do the orders via IQCENT on their platform … I could
just as easily use the m3 solo at IQCENT in faster, more volatile market conditions
… it’s really up to the end user … for “The Syndicate”, I generally trade via regular
BTC trading cuz the conditions are so superior to the rest of the field, who are all
fighting to escape the $35+ cost to trade, that I can scalp at will and make money
while they can’t.
Finally, as a warning, you can’t use the binary options manual for trading the
normal binary options on regular market CFD’s or spot, like DOW30, gold,
USDJPY, or any of the other markets … and the reason you can’t is cuz they
have the normal group of scumbags that manipulate markets and make good
runs 1) far less frequent, and 2) more choppy, which foils very short term m1
option expirations … it doesn’t do you much good to 1) have shitty payout ratios,
and 2) end up with a 40 minute group of small runs that show 23 wins and 17
losses … with payouts much lower than 95% … it’s like trying to escape fat
spreads + slippage, and you find it very difficult to win consistently … that’s why
my advice is to either trade regular markets, especially Bitcoin cuz of the superior
conditions, or trade OTC binary options, especially the crypto pairs cuz they got
the most specs involved in them for the OTC side of the equation … from what
I’ve seen so far, I think Bitcoin and DogeCoin have the most interest and volume
for OTC options … don’t discount DogeCoin for “run volatility”, cuz in the short
time I’ve watched both markets, Doge gives BTC a good run for its money in
terms of “runs” that go straight and last longer than you might think … and from
what I’ve written about today, you should now know why this is the case, and
further, why you aren’t usually gonna get this in the regular binary option
markets for other pairs outside crypto.
Turning to today’s minefield of “Slots-A-Rama” inside the casino, U.S. inflation
data coming up … “well, that escalated quickly didn’t it?” … “official” inflation at
only 5% now! … sure Joe, sure it is … what a frickin’ joke … meanwhile, gold a
complete trading nightmare at Coinexx … what a fucking circus shitshow
… they’re starting to make Turnkey look good.
Bitcoin somewhat contained today, with only about a $650 range post CPI data
[so far] … still plenty good enough to make shiploads of dinero when you got
conditions like those at IQCENT, but when you’re paying the rip off artists at joints
like Coinexx $35+, and slippage to boot cuz you know they’re gonna screw you
blind, it gets exponentially more difficult … today of course, cuz of the data,
Coinexx LP’s blow the crypto spreads out to ridiculous levels of bullshit cuz they
can … I seriously don’t know how they got anybody trading these given the
horseshit conditions.
Gold today, like most days, a complete shitshow nightmare to trade … I should
know better than to touch this shit … on days it’s moving, the slippage and price
quote gouging is “off the charts”, and on days when it ain’t doing’ Mr. Jack
“Diddly” Squat, you can’t get it to move through the spread to save your life … a
rigged paper game if there ever was one … today sees one algorithm trade in
Gold for the PAMM … DOWN ~0.2% … around a horrendous $1 slippage getting in
on a complete bullshit mystery offer fill, and around a $0.75 haircut liquidating
… honest prices and we would have been down only fractionally, but since when
does anything CFD related at Coinexx ever get honest treatment? … I sure as Hell
ain’t seen it! … the only thing … ONLY! … the only thing they’re halfway decent at
is FX, and that’s by no means a sure thing either … going forward for the PAMM,
I’m going to only trade either GBPAUD or USDJPY, and Cable/AUD is my first
choice … USDJPY only if Cable/Aud goes “sleepytime” in a big way … I am really
sick & tired of getting screwed by this place.
Contrast this with “The Syndicate”, where trading BTC at IQCENT, we’re UP
APPROXIMATELY 1.6% for the day … and while I’m slowly easing my way back
into crypto trading, returns will get much higher as time goes on … and it’s no
secret why … everything is spec related, with a very large contingent of traders
mirroring Mrs. Watanabe & Gal Pals … “FOMO & MOMO to your heart’s content
ladies!” … imagine trading a market with no government manipulators, made up
wholly of specs … imagine trading gold with a 1 penny spread with no
commissions, or ditto crude oil … no scumbag bank LP’s, just fellow traders
… well, we got that now at IQCENT in the crypto pairs, and we got the same kind
of conditions in the OTC options in other pairs, but they don’t have the pure runs
like crypto does, and that’s why I recommend trading OTC binary options in
crypto, like BTC or Doge … the spreads in other markets besides BTC or Doge in
normal trading, have spreads that mirror Coinexx … it’s in crypto trading that we
escape the insane “gas fees” [commissions] and/or ridiculous bid/offer spreads
… onto tomorrow, where it’s back to GBPAUD for the PAMM and BTC for “The
Syndicate” … both will do well going forward!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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