It’s by design … now you know why scumbag banks pushed for total electronic
trading at the turn of the century … 1) it allowed them to be in the middle of every
trade made, and 2) they are the only ones who can spread VIX over world trading
sessions to benefit themselves at your expense … and unless you plan on being
a meth addict, you’re not gonna be trading 24/5 … they can of course, cuz they
pass the banks trading “book” to the next time zone and traders there simply pick
up where the previous group left off … the result is simple and obvious to
anybody paying attention … they win, you lose as they control VIX through
time zones.
And that “excellent choice” ain’t anything in “Stock Bellies” … another day of
watching “Spoos” go straight up in the Asian & early Europe sessions, and before
the sun even is close to rising in New York, the 20 Day Range MA has been hit
… WTF is left for the upcoming session? … when does the NYSE move its HQ to
China? … frustrating beyond belief watching markets that don’t trade, they just
march straight up/down to the manipulators drum … get caught near a trend shift,
and your toast cuz they’ll gut you like a fish for dinner as they refuse to let the
market trade and allow you to make back whatever it is you lost … and therein
lies the problem … NO VIX from minute to minute for actual trading, and instead
it’s like watching grass grow before the next lurch somewhere, in seconds or a
few minutes before it stops, on some pre-planned release of a headline that
screws the most specs, or simply front running a large institutional order
… amazing coincidence the banks are ALWAYS on the winning side of ANY news
isn’t it? … I can assure you, back in the day before FED manipulation of
everything, the SP500 never “moved” [traded is the wrong word] like it does
now … the SP500 in its present mode simply doesn’t reflect reality in any way,
shape, or form.
Every day I get up and look at traditional financial markets, and every day I feel
like the guy trapped inside the shitter as it tips over and everybody else’s shit hits
you right in the face … :have a good day, OK?” … no, it ain’t OK … and outside of
crypto, it leaves me with very few choices for trading that make any sense
whatsoever … and at a few minutes before 6 AM EST, after the “Spoos” went up
8+ index points in seconds, I threw my hands up in disgust and walked away.
Crude oil only makes any sense if you trade futures [regular or micro] … CFD’s
are a rip off joke … gold is worse than a joke, it’s a criminal enterprise run by the
scumbag bullion banks … FX for the most part are a manipulated central bank
clusterfark slot machines … that doesn’t leave me with many choices … about the
only choice that makes any sense from a trading / scalping perspective is GBPJPY
[Cable/Yen] … tight spread [usually around 0.6 - 0.7 PIPS on the low side to about
1 PIP on the high side], a top 5 by volume trade worldwide, and a current 20 Day
Range MA = approximately 123 PIPS … when you analyze how it moves & trades,
the similarities between it and ETHUSD [Ethereum] are striking … IMHO, that’s
due to the capital flows from institutions of all stripes, not specs, that happen
repeatedly day-after-day … there’s all kinds of volume flows going on … this is
very different than ETH, which is almost 100% spec flows … both panic the same,
so at the edges when SHTF, you can expect both to act & trade much the same
… humans are human after all … don’t look for any correlation in price directions,
cuz I don’t see any that are noticeable … but like crypto, there are tradeable
opportunities no matter what’s going on.
And speaking of scalping, my experience has always been scalp from one side or
the other and stay there … moving around intraday or daily invites getting
“whacked” by Sil & Paulie when chop sets in … that doesn’t mean you can’t
EVER switch, just make sure if you do to make it a rare event … in scalping it
doesn’t matter much which side [long or short], cuz you’re not there making
judgements about direction, you’re MAKING JUDGEMENTS ABOUT EITHER BUY
FUEL [LONG] OR SELL FUEL [SHORT] for profitable trades … that’s it! … so what
good is a H4 trending chart, or a daily, other than taking notice of regions where
there can be gigantic stops? … take a look at the current weekly chart in GBPJPY
directly below.
You still have to pay attention to where things are at, cuz your buy/sell fuel signal
just might get “whacked” from a more important signal that’s developing right in
front of you … ETHUSD traders got that lesson in spades this past Saturday
morning in the Asian session, where at least one “whale”, according to reports,
got “whacked” for over $2+ billion on forced liquidation [a/k/a “a sell stop”].
Quite frankly, I’d rather be trading other financial products, but as the Mrs. says,
“when life gives you lemons, demand chocolate”! … so here we are. I’ve made
some very minor theoretical “tweaks” to the trading algorithm, to partially adjust
for lower VIX than crypto pairs like ETHUSD … from what I’ve seen and
researched, GBPJPY acts an awful lot like XRPUSD [Ripple] when ranges are
below 100 PIPS, and ETHUSD when above 100 PIPS … as I said, current 20 Day
Range MA = 124.4 PIPS, so it’s mirroring ETH in its trading paradigm … different
“fingerprints”, but the “action” is similar … I wouldn’t go as far to say Cable/Yen
is a “quasi crypto pair”, only that its trading action is very similar and that it has a
demand side equation to the cross that is similar to spec and institutional interest
in ETHUSD … it’s different to be sure, but the result is the same, and that is
“movement” in VIX and price, cuz it doesn’t take much of anything to change a
cross price given the numerator and denominator dynamics.
What makes GBPJPY better than the SP500, is relative trade size versus what the
market can handle, relative to its movement and potential slippage … you simply
can’t do in “Spoos” what you can do in Cable/Yen via higher volumes and trade
sizes … any CFD versus spot FX pair, especially one in the top 5 of trading volume,
and it isn’t even close to comparable … the CFD HFT’s and/or banks will make
sure of that via horrendous slippage.
At other times in the past, I’ve attempted to trade Cable/Yen with different
algorithms, that in reality didn’t give me the results I wanted … too slow, not
proactive enough and therefore too many times missed the critical “buy fuel”
trades … take the crypto algorithm and it’s an entirely different story cuz the
premise and makeup of the algorithm is entirely different and doesn’t use
mainstream technical indicators that the banks run with impunity and simply fade
your order … and although it’s not a crypto pair, it has enough volatility relative to
its market price and trading action, that it could be thought of as one with no
problem … granted, it would be on the low side of the crypto paradigm, but
nonetheless it could be there … and so I put it there! … and, it mirrors VIX & price
behavior with excellent results … since about 6 AM ‘till 11 AM EST [the London Fix
for FX], there were dozens of buy signals given off by the algorithm … a quick
glance at the M15 charts and you’ll notice plenty of up/down m15 candlesticks
during this 5 hour period … before that, in the Asian session and early Europe,
some straight runs both up and down, but very tradeable action from the charts
that the crypto algorithm “nails to the barn wall!” … a lot of ‘em I watched, simply
cuz I wanted to make sure in real time I hadn’t “F-ed” up in my minor algorithm
tweaks … good news, I didn’t “F-UP”!
Since this is a non dollar cross, I’ll also be willing to push trading past the London
Fix and into the New York afternoon, where I’ll make a decision as to continue
trading or shut it down for the day … most days I’ll more than likely shut it down
simply cuz I’ve already been here watching / trading for over 8+ hours anyway, so
what’s to gain now in the afternoon of New York, where most days it’s dead?
I did get in one algorithm buy signal in GBPJPY today for the TURNKEY PAMM
… UP SLIGHTLY.
As I go forward, I’ll slowly increase volumes, looking for that level from Turnkey’s
LP’s I shouldn’t cross … right now, I don’t know where that is exactly, so I have to
find out … I have a pretty good idea where it is, so we’ll see … today’s trade saw
no slippage and excellent latency, but the most important thing about this trade is
that it proved my order wasn’t being held, but executed immediately … how do I
know that? … cuz the sell liquidation was filled 0.1 PIPS from the high bid of the
M1, and if it was being held to get screwed, I would have gotten filled about half a
PIP lower at a minimum … and btw, GBPJPY is much better in terms of fills than
simply Cable against the dollar … the cross has better dynamics.
Who put the valium in the ETH water today? … talk about underperforming, this
was it … so far, a daily range of about 50% UNDER its 20 Day Range MA … no
trades today for “The Syndicate”, we need better trading action than this.
I had previously thought, which was completely erroneous, that an increase in
VIX would unlock the “Spoos” from its terrible trading action … I couldn’t have
been more wrong … and after yesterday’s clusterfark in “Stock Bellies”, I started
to take a look at FX pairs that historically had a higher VIX than normal versus
other FX pairs … that led to Cable/Yen, which has the attributes we need for
successful scalping … the other crosses don’t have tight spreads, and slippage
can be a problem … and when I started to run the crypto algo, I immediately knew
I had made a mistake with trading “Spoos”, and instead should be in Cable/Yen
… the only drawback about this pair, isn’t from the trade side, but simply from
logistics … you need to get up early to catch the worm! … well, I can do that,
what’s the problem?
Make no mistake, there is no “perfect” market for scalping / trading … those days
in the “pits” are long gone, and governments have upped the ante … crypto
comes close and is the highest on the list, but even so it has its drawbacks and
less than pristine moments as well … the last 2 days in ETH have been anything
but good trading days … quite frankly, they’ve stunk the joint up … all I’m asking
for is pure trading action up/down … you could make the case for EURJPY, but
why trade a pair with about the same spread as Cable/Yen, and much lower VIX?
… and when things slow down and VIX goes lower, the crypto algo will still shine,
cuz it’s measuring “buy fuel”, and could care less about price prediction or what
happens in 4 hours … things should go smoothly … a full day tomorrow in
GBPJPY, so GIDDYUP, it’s time to let the pony run!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses!! 😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment