“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again
in new shapes of your own choosing”. - George Orwell, 1984.
What’s the over / under on how long BoJo remains PM in Britain, given the
special election results from Shropshire? … the COVID hoax hysteria, loss of
freedoms, and idiotic government mandates THAT DON’T WORK, but let’s do
more of ‘em! … that manipulation is FAILING!
Out in Kalifornia, the mayor of S.F., one Uber Libtard woman, who wanted and
pressed for defunding the police, but kept her own private security force, is now
doing a “180” and screaming from the rooftops for more cops! … oh the irony
and hypocritical nature of this B. I . Itch … gotta have “power” no matter what
… that manipulation is FAILING!
Then there’s the ultimate fail … “Taliban Joe” living in a delusional reality that is
gonna come crashing down with next year's midterms … expect the bloodbath to
be deep, very deep … he’s so pathetic, all he’s good for anymore is comedy
relief! … that manipulation is FAILING!
Finally, there are central banks and the endless money printing via CNTRL-P
that artificially depress interest rates, which in turn keep “zombie companies”
afloat, so they can do more stock buybacks, and fund political PAC’s, and the
Elitists see their stock holdings go screaming higher in price, all the while
“main street” is drowning from government bullshit … there’s gonna come a
day, probably a lot sooner than most expect, when nobody but nobody buys
what they’re selling and the “Bubble Markets” collapse … and yes, that
manipulation is FAILING!
There is not one single western democracy right now, where the Apparatchiks
in power are determined to preserve and protect individual freedoms, insure
prosperity for everyone, and build strong economies … instead, we get an
anything goes casino atmosphere of societal decay and corruption. FJB!
Markets today depressingly quiet so far … but … today is an OPEX, end of year
options expiration, so with OVER $4+ TRILLION EXPIRING, there’s gonna be
some “Stock Bellies” fireworks on the open, close, and everywhere between
… of course with the obligatory ancillary aftershocks felt in other markets as a
result … dunno, we’ll see … over the course of the week, I’ve also been
following USDJPY … earlier I had said there isn’t much difference in EUR versus
Yen from a trading perspective … well, that’s both true on some fronts, but dead
wrong on others … Yen correlates much better with the “risk on / risk off”
sentiment, and while they don’t move tick-for-tick, broad moves in the “Spoos”
will most likely see USDJPY follow suit … and with what’s going on in the world
via COVID TOTALITARIANISM, tapering [maybe], and central bank policy errors
all over the place, my gut feeling is the FX Genie may be coming out of the VIX
bottle they’ve had her holed up in for years … at least since 2010 - 2011 … and
it’s one of the reasons USDJPY 20 Day Range MA has gone from the high 40’s
PIPS in early Fall, to now almost 80 PIPS … fact is, USDJPY is the better pair to
trade with VIX rising, simply cuz of the correlations with “risk on / risk off”
… starting Monday I’ll be trading USDJPY for the PAMM … EUR just not
responding like I want it to from a trading perspective, and the kicker is most
days USDJPY has the lowest spread to boot … today 0.0 - 0.2 PIPS … with no
commissions, what’s not to like?
I was going to mention this OPEX expiration earlier in the week, but it slipped my
mind … but with OVER $4+ TRILLION going off the board, today in USDJPY
should be more treacherous than a central bank meeting on interest rate policy
… simply cuz of the wild gyrations of the SP500 and it being year end … with
USDJPY, cuz of “Stonks”, this pair gives us more time in a trading day as well,
so I’ll probably stay engaged with it to about 2:30 - 3:00 P.M. EST. … bottom line,
though, is one of trade dynamics … we will get more algorithm buy/sell signals in
USDJPY than in EURUSD … and cuz of the “risk on / risk off” dynamic the other
major pairs don’t have, I don’t have a problem with being long or short USDJPY,
cuz there is plenty of players on both sides … that also gives us another
dimension of trading I’m not willing to probe with the other pairs … and cuz I’ll be
trading it later into the New York day, look for the blog post around the NYSE
close at 4 PM EST.
Today is one of four “quad witch” days in “Stonks”, and usually the year end one
has the largest exposure … with that said, this isn’t a day to get over adventurous
in USDJPY … on the other hand, one of the biggest drawbacks to trading EURUSD,
is its inability on most days to correct adequately during any kind of move, and
that means big problems if you get caught on a short term trend change, simply
cuz it ain’t coming back for you … don’t get me wrong, USDJPY has its moments
as well, but at least the correlation with the SP500 either supports or gives
resistance to Yen moves … in addition, IMHO Yen is more technical based than
EURUSD … what we’re seeing today after the “London Fix” is a Yen market that
refuses to move more than a couple of PIPS cuz of the quad witch day … as we
move towards the NYSE close, the potential of SHTF grows, so really this is a
game of “chicken” into the close, something I never want to play.
It’s been rather frustrating attempting to find the correct market for the PAMM
trade … USDJPY should serve us well, as all of the dynamics of the trading
algorithm fit well into this market … and from the looks of the world today and
the uncertainty on so many fronts, IMHO VIX should stay elevated in USDJPY
for quite a while … quite frankly, a 20 Day Range MA of 80 or better is absolutely
ideal given the LOWEST spread on the market that’s out there, and the way it
moves to the “risk on / risk off” mantras, something that doesn’t happen with
EURUSD or GBPUSD … no need to play “Whack-A-Mole” in FX, this pair is in
the middle of everything, and truth be told I should have opted for Yen over EUR
to begin with … live & learn … but we’re here now, and that’s all that matters
… going forward, we should do very well in this market.
In case you haven’t noticed, everything follows the SP500 … some days it’s hard
to see who leads, whether it’s USDJPY or “Stonks”, but the only mantra worth
using in any of these traditional markets is “risk on / risk off” and when does it
switch? … well, there’s your “buy / sell fuel” in spades … onto Monday and
Yen trades.
No trades today in EURUSD or USDJPY … EURUSD just not playing well enough
like I had hoped, and after a very tight 5+ hours watching EURUSD in a LESS
THAN 20 PIP range, I threw in the towel and said enough is enough, this ain’t
workin’ for anybody … so around the London Fix I switched to concentrating
on USDJPY … now into the afternoon, the quad witch for the “Spoos” is the
main driver of trade flows & price.
Over in crypto land, ETH doing nothing most of the day and then BOOM!, down
goes Frazier, only to rally like gangbusters before selling off again … via multiple
trades in ETH, “The Syndicate” UP APPROXIMATELY 0.2% … just another
“grinder” day under very tough trading conditions … very tough, and that’s
why I stopped when we got up money.
A lot of trading sins get washed away in crypto cuz of the VIX … you can’t make
that case in any other trading market space … FX for sure is a landmine for the
uninitiated, but it’s biggest problem is little to no VIX on corrective moves within
some kind of definable trend … we need a razor thin spread, in a market that is
deep for volume & liquidity, and we need decent VIX … doing the statistical work,
there are simply many more trades via the algorithm in USDJPY than in anything
comparable to its spread … it makes it the right choice to trade, and that means
into the foreseeable future USDJPY offers us the MAX profit potential
… onto Monday!
Blog update on Sunday … outta here … “The future’s so bright I need
sunglasses!! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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