Welcome to “dead cat bounce” day in crypto … OR, the start of the next leg
higher in everything crypto, as another failed attempt by the “Deep State” to
propagandize crypto and get people to sell goes “not so well” … I tend to think
the latter, but what do I know, I’m only a trader … I care not where anything
moves to, but only the premise of “buy at 1, sell at 2, ALL DAY LONG while
building account equity and future income”! … other than that, what’s the point?
There’s “trouble” in River City … I was going to write today about TRX [TRON], one
of my favorite, if not THE favorite alt-coin I like to trade … lately [last 10 days], a
troubling development is being seen in some of the PHEMEX alt-coins in spot,
and today alone it cost me lost trades on 3 different algorithm buy signals in TRX
… first, you have to understand, that PHEMEX spot markets are tiny relative to
behemoths like BINANCE, anywhere from 100X - 200X+ SMALLER IN VOLUME on
a daily basis … PHEMEX GETS ITS LIQUIDITY from people or companies providing
“arbitrage” [arb] services via API software linked to houses like BINANCE, and
that’s why at every tick, there’s about $25,000+ worth of TRX bid or offered … then
it changes … and since most everybody trading spot is a member of “Premium”
club, where we pay ZERO FEES TO TRADE, I’d guess that over 99% of all trades
are done at the “Market” at PHEMEX … here comes the problem.
It becomes apparent quickly, that LP’s providing arb services can ONLY bid or
offer price … they can’t reach and take offers or hit bids … they’re there to get
“hit”, and then they offset at a place like BINANCE, and make a few pennies per
trade guaranteed … “you know, like what liquidity providers are supposed to do,
but don’t over on the MT4 / MT5” … so what happens is this … somebody puts a
“limit buy order” in [for example] at 0.12600 for $10 worth of TRX … the price of
TRX starts going lower at BINANCE, but nobody is hitting the bid at PHEMEX
… remember, there’s no shorting in spot, and the LP’s offering $200,000+ at
0.12605 [minimum tick is 0.00005] can’t reach to take this clown out … so the bid
stays there, while at BINANCE the market moves down to 0.12525, and at the same
time nobody sells this $10 worth of TRX, so the bid stays at 0.12600 … the problem
is, THE OFFER STAYS UP THERE AS WELL … so, if I get a buy signal on
“go charts” on that move down at BINANCE … I CAN’T GET IN! … and from there
TRX goes straight up to 0.12650 … this happened 3 times to me this early A.M.
… and what’s apparent to me is, that LONG position holders are doing this on
purpose to prevent the PHEMEX price from dropping, possibly preventing sell
stops from being hit, cuz on “open order book” platforms, stops are only set off
on ACTUAL TRADES, NOT THE BID OR OFFER.
Now, in the bigger alt-coins like ETHUSDT, or LINKUSDT, this isn’t going to happen
cuz those coins are much deeper in volumes & liquidity than some of the lesser
known and traded alt-coins like TRX … after the third time this happened, I got on
PHEMEX chat and blistered some management ears … this is bullshit, and needs
to be fixed … they “say” they’ll look into it and if I’m right, they will change things
… “sure, sure you will … should I hold my breath”? … so, I’ve moved back over to
ETHUSDT, where this kind of thing rarely happens, but does happen … last week, I
was trading ETHUSDT, and somebody had a bid for approximately 200 ETHUSDT,
worth about $800,000 and the price dropped … when it got to about $3.50 under
the next bid in the queue, somebody took him/her out, and trading resumed with
the normal $1.50 - $2.25 bid / offer spread … so, even if it happens, it won’t get out
of line much in ETHUSDT … the same can’t be said for other alt-coins.
What makes matters worse for the PAMM at Turnkey, is the fact that BTC has
simply become untradeable … oh sure, the bid / offer spread is great, but what
does that mean when within seconds BTC can go up $300, then go down $600, then
go right back up $800, galloping along with price changes that should make
“normal” traders want to puke? … as I write, on my M1 screen for BTC, the grid is
OVER $100+ … on an M1 … unfrickin’ real … if you cut your volumes down to
adjust for risk, all you’ve done is insure small profits, with the inevitable
“The Reaper is waiting for you” moment, where you get “whacked” out of the blue
on the second-by-second insane volatility from the “whales” … and not just insane,
but insane on meth, heroin, & Red Bull! … pricing second-to-second, and not just
at Turnkey but everywhere, is “off the charts” in the “Crypto World Twilight Zone”
… you might as well be at a roulette wheel … in other words, there isn’t any way
to mitigate risk in this market that is anywhere near acceptable, and the potential
to lose 20% of your account trading “1 lots” several times and being on the
whipsaw side of the yo-yo, isn’t something I will sign up for … not today, not ever!
… and since Turnkey has thieving LP’s in crypto & CFD’s, if you’re gonna trade
crypto the ONLY choice is BTC, or fugetaboutit! … other crypto pairs like ETH are
a cruel joke, with spreads you can drive a semi through and still have room, and if
anybody trades these at Turnkey, I got some “prime” Kansas beachfront property
I’d like to show you … cheap!
With a slight modification of the trading algorithm, in one key parameter, traders
can move from crypto to relatively slower VIX FX pairs [not gold or silver] and
achieve success … it’s subtle but makes a huge difference … not that I have a
choice in the matter, cuz I most definitely would rather trade crypto, especially with
the conditions “The Syndicate” enjoys at PHEMEX in a number of alt-coins, but on
the MT4 / MT5 crypto is simply not an option until these asshats either 1) get the
ETH spread down to levels I accept [not likely], OR 2) get newer and better crypto
pairs [not likely either].
It’s not a question of reward, it is the absolute nightmare of LOSS, and not just a
little bit either … and I haven’t even mentioned “slippage” in BTC, which is
another nightmare, simply cuz there is ZERO transparency in the LP’s pricing of
your fill … add it all up, and it’s one big nightmare for anybody trading it … as for
me, I don’t mind saying at all when I see conditions I can’t conquer and then
admitting, not only don’t I like them, but I don’t see how I can defeat them unless
I get lucky … and when “luck” is your trading strategy, things are gonna get real
bad real soon!
It’s a far different story for “The Syndicate” over at PHEMEX … we enjoy the
absolute best LOWEST COST TO TRADE [spread + “gas fees”] in alt-coins
available anywhere in the world … and that means we can take advantage of scalps
far better than whatever crypto is being offered at Turnkey via their ripoff artist
HFT LP’s … “there is no such thing as “slippage” on an “open order book”
trading platform, cuz you’re literally PART OF THE MARKET! … everything
transparent and no “monkey business” … the same cannot be said over at Turnkey,
or for that matter on any MT4 / MT5 platform that is LP based.
Two things need to be mentioned here … 1) IMHO, Turnkey is the very best place
to trade FX pairs, especially major dollar pairs like EURUSD, USDJPY, etc., and
2) as I’ve said before, what you pay to trade is critically important for profitable
success, and nobody beats Turnkey when it comes to bid / offer spreads in FX,
PLUS the lowest round turn [RT] commission rates out there, especially for retail
specs … latency is excellent, so what you end up getting in FX is exactly what
“The Syndicate” has in crypto at PHEMEX … the only difference is volatility and
who manipulates the different markets!
I cannot stress the vital importance of mitigating risk enough … you simply have
to know what the downside is to your trades, and there’s no way you can do that
in Bitcoin … if I had to guess, the reward to risk ratio for BTC is probably around
the 1 : 50 level! … that’s right, risk $50 to make $1 … sorry, that bird ain’t gonna
fly! … at least in FX, especially EURUSD and/or USDJPY, you can get a reasonable
handle what your exposure is … but since we can’t trade other coins at Turnkey,
but only Bitcoin, I simply have no other options available to me, other than take
the PAMM trading back into FX … starting Monday I’ll be back in EURUSD [IMHO,
it’s better than USDJPY, but arguments could be made for it as well], and my
volumes will be higher than what I’ve traded in the past … quite frankly, I can adjust
my volumes to give the PAMM the same reward / risk ratio “The Syndicate” enjoys
at PHEMEX.
What is not acceptable, is continuing to see the trading algorithm make good
money for “The Syndicate”, while the PAMM struggles … this grates on me like
sandpaper! … and it happens up ‘til now, not cuz of problems with the algorithm,
but for logistical reasons with 1) the total cost to trade cuz of thieving LP’s, and
2) not having enough of a choice to choose from viable crypto coins … with the
very subtle, but important, algorithm changes made to accommodate lower
volatility markets, things should proceed smoothly for us next week as I go back
into EURUSD … the CFD’s at Turnkey are simply not an option, cuz every single
one of ‘em is a rip off … I’ll deal with the lower VIX of EURUSD by getting 1) more
trades via the algorithm, and 2) trading larger volumes.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not reluctant to trade FX, I’d simply rather trade the crypto
alt-coins for a number of reasons … but if my only choice is simply Bitcoin or bust,
I can’t sit here and tell you that a 1 : 50 reward / risk ratio is “A-OK” with me, cuz it
isn’t … more important than making money, is not getting “whacked” attempting to
make money .. I got a pretty good handle on EURUSD risk, and I have no clue
[neither does anybody else] with Bitcoin … do the math Skippy.
No trades today in the TURNKEY PAMM, and I will be transitioning back into
EURUSD starting Sunday night.
Over in alt-coin land, I would have had multiple trades in TRXUSDT if not for the
missed trades described earlier cuz of people “gaming” the PHEMEX “open order
book” platform with $10 orders … 3 times this happened and cost us some good
profits … I therefore switched back over to ETHUSDT, a far more liquid & deep
market than TRX, and traded there … multiple algorithm buy signals in ETHUSDT,
and “The Syndicate” UP APPROXIMATELY 0.33%
Some really excellent algo signals … as you’ll see, the trading algorithm “NAILS”
these crypto alt-coins to the barn door! … and with what looks like the ascendance
of ETH over BTC, we enjoy the LOWEST COST TO TRADE ANYWHERE when
trading ETH, as this coin continues to show higher volumes and more interest
daily.
Blog update on Sunday … I’m so outta here!… “the future’s so bright I need
sunglasses”! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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