I’M TRADING “WTF”!

 

“Yes Dorothy, GBPUSD is a long way from Kansas isn’t it?”

“Most days in Cable, nothing makes any sense whatsoever … today is one of 

those days”. Not surprisingly, GBPUSD didn’t do much of anything into the 

U.K. employment numbers with wage growth … however, as I have pointed 

out before, this year has seen somebody [or a group of somebody’s] move the 

market significantly right before major economic news is released; today it 

happened twice, both times on the downside, once at the U.K. numbers, and the 

other right before U.S. retail sales … both times the market got “monkey 

hammered” in the minutes before the releases … and as I have also said, 

nobody would do this unless they had “Mr. Beeks” on loan from Randolph & 

Mortimer Duke.

Well, even though some in the financial press have said the U.K. numbers were 

on the disappointing side, I would point out that wage growth was the strongest 

since 2015, and argues for an August rate hike from the BOE … and with that, 

Cable “popped” slightly higher … but there was no follow through, and the 

market literally died minutes later. “Ok, nothing here, I guess we wait for retail 

sales … but with about 90 minutes to the U.S. report, Cable started to make its 

move lower, and by the time the data was released, the Cable ship had already 

leaked about 25 PIPS”. Excluding autos, retail sales missed consensus forecasts 

by 0.1%, and initially, I thought the gap lower in Cable must have meant the 

number beat consensus … “well, why are we dropping”?

From a trading standpoint, it’s foolish to go with “fun-der-mentals”, when the 

market is telling you otherwise … “Ok, sell it is to get short … and then just 

below the old low support level at 1.34600, somebody flipped the light switch, 

and/or sent out the email [I didn’t get one], and the market went from “couldn’t 

get an uptick to save your life” TO “couldn’t get a downtick to save you from 

drowning”, and within an hour, here we are back up 50+ PIPS off the low and 

back above 1.35000, at least temporarily”. And now of course, any longs held 

over from the last 9 days, got obliterated … and then within an hour, all the 

shorts from the retail sales report got it shoved up their nose with a sharp stick 

… “kill the longs, and then kill the shorts … thanks for playing, come again soon, 

cuz now all that’s left of the day are crumbs and tears … good grief, what a 

shitshow”!

And once again, as if you need further proof cuz it’s happening almost all the 

time, Cable does NOT trade anymore … Cable only “RIPS” to a point straight 

away, and when the train leaves the station, if you’re not on it, you have no 

good options available to you … and when it’s over, that’s it, come back 

tomorrow, cuz all that’s left is minor scalping for PIPS, in which the scumbag 

LP banks will hand out slippage cuz there’s no way they’re gonna let you pick 

them off for minor gains. [Note: this is what “Newbies” learn the hard way 

coming off a demo, in which you simply get last price in the system … start 

trading live anything over a 1 lot, and you will be shocked to discover the 

difference.]

Turning to today’s GBPUSD trading … my first trade told me everything I 

needed to know about today, which was keep volumes low cuz slippage and 

price changes are atrocious … not everything the dealers fault, but give them 

an inch, they will surely take a mile, and “stuff” it to you … slippage hurts.

A handful of trades today … PAMM up literally a buck and change, so no 

significant change really.

Seriously, I’m getting sick of getting my orders clubbed like a baby seal during 

a Japanese whale hunt; second and third trades today simply atrocious on both 

ends … “market conditions, duh” is the mantra currency of every banker on the 

planet … I’d bitch, but I’m wasting my breath, so what’s the point? Hell, with 

fills like these today, what does it matter any other market slippage … only the 

stock indices and some of the FX crosses are worse, but I don’t see where oil 

and/or gold have anything on Cable when it comes to shit fills.

Again today, once the ball gets rolling to the downside, there’s no getting in, or 

initiating a trade under favorable conditions … it rallies 5 PIPS and you’re 

thinkin’, well maybe we can get some sort of correction going that I can sell, 

and then you blink and it’s down another 10 PIPS hitting another new low, and 

once we got down into the 1.34700’s, I’m not chasing this stuff lower to get a 

short position on, cuz I know what happens when the music stops, and 

everybody looks around and wonders, “oh, time to cover, and the market goes 

straight up”. 

Helping price to rally off the low, just at the right time as if by coincidence, 

May’s government announces a “white paper” on “Brexit” to be released next 

month, detailing solutions to problems that still exist [read Irish border 

dispute] … and “bingo bongo”, SHTF and we get a 70+ PIP rally off the low 

and kill some shorts.

The algorithm, for its part, did an excellent job at picking the turns, but 

understand I’m not stepping in front of any economic or central bank decision 

release that has potential market moving information, and get it shoved up my 

donkey 50+ PIPS in seconds if the market gets blindsided with a surprise.

Directly below the GBPUSD algorithm on the M5, and below that the daily 

candlestick, where we are now comfortably back above 1.35 [at least for the 

moment], and no amount of buying or selling seems to get the market to want 

to put in any type of “fat candle” for the day.

 

 

No releases of any significance over the next couple of days, so I’m hoping 

Cable can finally decide which way to go here, in terms of direction. We’ve 

always got “Brexit” news to consider, especially in the late afternoon over in 

the U.K., so you have to be mindful of spikes that may come as a result of some 

Pie Hole or headline.

Make no mistake, these last 9 - 10 days have been unbelievably tough to trade 

… “doji” here, “doji” there, a blast up, multiple blasts down, and then back up 

… market lacks real conviction, and it’s very hard to judge the turns when the 

market turns, and it’s very hard to make losses back when there is no trend 

other than “kill longs, kill shorts … chop … crickets”!

Once again, 60 PIPS of today’s range came in the minutes preceding U.S. retail 

sales AND the 10 minutes right after the release … 2 of my first 3 trades were in 

that 10 minute period right after the report in the U.S., and I got ripped to 

shreds getting in short, and got “mystery tick” fills on the upside when I 

liquidated … and I’m sitting here simply thinkin’ to myself, “WTF was that? 

… how can you fill me there? … and I come to realize I’m trading WTF”!

So, disappointed in the fact there was such little time involved in the majority of 

the move, and then the “slow drip” blood letting of shorts once it was over, that 

has led to nothing but “chop” around the 1.34900 - 1.35200 level, where any coin 

for a coin flip is all you need to determine buy or sell … yes, it’s that bad.

And now here late in the day, checking my screen as I write, we’re only about 

25 PIPS lower from the 06:00 start … not exactly Armageddon. I don’t know 

when the dollar buying stops, but this market is getting about as oversold as 

I’ve seen FX get since EURUSD wouldn’t do anything but go down during the 

10 months of the Greek crisis back in May 2014 - March 2015, and saw price 

move from approximately 1.37000 to 1.06000 … other than that, historically 

GBPUSD is prone to quick and deadly drops in the 600 - 1200 PIP range, and 

they are scattered everywhere mostly as a result of retarded government. Here 

we are, and it’s about 900 PIPS from the tips, so Cable is due for some kind of 

vicious rally in here … I’m not sayin’ it starts in 5 minutes, just sayin’ it’s most 

definitely due for a 150 - 200+ PIP blast on the upside that leaves no prisoners 

… and after today’s employment numbers from the U.K., I thought for a 

minute today had a chance … not to be, but it’s coming, and the really good 

news is the Cable algorithm will definitely catch it when it gets here!

So, given the circumstances involving today’s trade, not that disappointed in 

basically breaking even for the day … we’ll see what tomorrow brings, and 

without news issues bogging us down, it should be a profitable day … I’m 

outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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