“Yup, I see it …. and I don’t like it !”
With increasing regularity, I’m seeing a phenomena in FX I don’t like … no,
it’s got nothing to do with scumbag LP’s, although that’s a good guess … it’s
the increasing insistence of markets to make moves just “prior” to news
releases; doesn’t matter the data, it could be any or all of the following
… inflation numbers, PMI’s, ISM, retail sales, employment numbers, or
central bank decisions. And once again today, with U.K. PMI set for release at
08:30 server time, just prior to that here comes the selling in Cable … no
matter the country, no matter the data … who is doing this and why?
Cuz to me, it smacks of somebody trying to muscle the market before the data,
and knowing bids/offers start thinning out as we get closer to a release, uses
their money power to move things in the desired direction and profit
… meanwhile, after the data, it’s a gap and then “crumbs” for the trading
community to fight and squabble over. And once again, we see it today with
U.K. PMI. Fast forward to the U.S. PMI, and Cable … sure enough minutes
before release plunging to a new low for the day. Is this the new paradigm for
Of course, it doesn’t help either, when the LP’s turn the machines off, like they
did today 20 seconds before the PMI was released, and turn them back on at
08:33 … directly below, my M15 screen right after the feed came back, and
you can see for yourself the gap the missing time left via price.
And of course, they did it again right before release of the U.S. PMI & ISM. So,
twice today, got the machines turned off on us … nice. Directly below, the M15
for today in GBPUSD … notice the 2 gaps in price … both were just prior to
releases, and by shutting the machines off, not only did we lose opportunity, we
You have to fight the market, and every day fight the damn banks as well, who
pull shit like this at their convenience, cuz they don’t want to trade with you if
they think you might be able to get a price advantage by mistake. I asked
Turnkey management after the second one this morning, “Is it too much too ask
to have a market, or is us being here an inconvenience”? See my shocked face,
they haven’t answered back … “crickets” all around.
And as a result of the front running of the reports, all markets have done,
specifically GBPUSD, is get “monkey hammered” 40 - 100 PIPS lower, and
then fart around and wait for the next event to roll around and it happens
again … since it was at the 1.40000 level [now at 1.36000 - 1.36300 level], this is
the complete M.O. for this market, with not much in the way of anything,
besides the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] yo-yo machine, but up/down of
30 - 50 PIPS … today, no exception.
Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … clusterfark of gaps lower and short
covering … that’s it in a nutshell. Have tried to be short all day, from every
level, and almost without exception, got it shoved up my nose, sometimes
A shipload of trades today … PAMM down about $360, or about 0.6%.
No way to sugarcoat this donkey mauling, as all day long, outside of a couple of
long trades, I attempted to stay short, and every time had to fight a market that
wanted to go higher … and even when I had a lead in price, it came roaring
back so fast to the upside, the trade provided little in the way of profit.
I feel like the grade school kid, whose Mom sent him to school one day when it
was raining, and she got him all dressed up in his rubber boots and raincoat
with hat, and put his books in a plastic bag, and sent him off to walk 3 blocks to
school … and when he got there, he was soaking wet, and got sent home to
change. What the hell happened?
I wish I could say, “well, I was trying to buy the bottoms all day long and got it
rammed up my nose … that at least would make sense … but no, looking at the
M15, I should have made a frickin’ killing today, and instead I got paper cut to
death … very frustrating, and it’s a miracle there is anything in the house
electronic that still works that didn’t have my fist go through it”. Aside from
having the machines turned off twice, I’d cover a short position and it would be
higher than where I sold it, and I’m looking for a signal or a good place to sell,
and then … BOOM! … down it goes 4 - 7 PIPS in less than a second, and starts
to run to the downside like a horse galloping out of control, and you either
“sell it in the hole”, or watch it get the “Thelma & Louise” routine. In any event,
I’m not in it, and minutes later it’s anywhere from 20 - 30 lower, and the
process starts all over again … where the hell were you when I was short?
Well, here we are, down around 1.36000, from 1.43000 in 11 trading days
… from here on down, until this stuff bottoms and rallies some, staying short is
going to be rough going, and my hypothesis is that Cable needs to go lower at
our 06:00 open, and then reverse off a bottom, and then look the hell out on the
upside … I’m not saying it’s gonna rally “bigly & yuge”, like 200 PIPS, but
there are so many shorts in here right now, it’s a very crowded trade.
Tomorrow sees a FED meeting on interest rates, so anything goes at 2 P.M.
What I’m going to do going forward starting tomorrow, is give the early initial
trades more “room to work”, and I won’t be nearly as quick to liquidate them,
thus allowing the trade more time to take a hold of the short term trend … it’s
a long day, and with the way this stuff moves, it’s what we’re looking for
Trader rule top ten: “put it behind you and move forward … it happens”. But I
will tell you this; “unless I’m dead, the short covering rally off of this on a
reversal bottom, I’m gonna be all over like white on rice … whenever it is, and
whatever level it comes from … not prejudging anything, but I know it’s coming
and coming very soon”. I’m outta here for a cold one, maybe 2, maybe … until
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet updated and posted either tonight or
Have a great day everybody!
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