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Tuesday, May 1, 2018

I DON’T LIKE WHAT I’M SEEIN’

“Yup, I see it …. and I don’t like it !”

With increasing regularity, I’m seeing a phenomena in FX I don’t like … no, 
it’s got nothing to do with scumbag LP’s, although that’s a good guess …  it’s 
the increasing insistence of markets to make moves just “prior” to news 
releases; doesn’t matter the data, it could be any or all of the following 
… inflation numbers, PMI’s, ISM, retail sales, employment numbers, or 
central bank decisions. And once again today, with U.K. PMI set for release at 
08:30 server time, just prior to that here comes the selling in Cable … no 
matter the country, no matter the data … who is doing this and why?

Cuz to me, it smacks of somebody trying to muscle the market before the data, 
and knowing bids/offers start thinning out as we get closer to a release, uses 
their money power to move things in the desired direction and profit 
… meanwhile, after the data, it’s a gap and then “crumbs” for the trading 
community to fight and squabble over. And once again, we see it today with 
U.K. PMI. Fast forward to the U.S. PMI, and Cable … sure enough minutes 
before release plunging to a new low for the day. Is this the new paradigm for 
trading?

Of course, it doesn’t help either, when the LP’s turn the machines off, like they 
did today 20 seconds before the PMI was released, and turn them back on at 
08:33 … directly below, my M15 screen right after the feed came back, and 
you can see for yourself the gap the missing time left via price.


And of course, they did it again right before release of the U.S. PMI & ISM. So, 
twice today, got the machines turned off on us … nice. Directly below, the M15 
for today in GBPUSD … notice the 2 gaps in price … both were just prior to 
releases, and by shutting the machines off, not only did we lose opportunity, we 
lost pricing.


You have to fight the market, and every day fight the damn banks as well, who 
pull shit like this at their convenience, cuz they don’t want to trade with you if 
they think you might be able to get a price advantage by mistake. I asked 
Turnkey management after the second one this morning, “Is it too much too ask 
to have a market, or is us being here an inconvenience”? See my shocked face, 
they haven’t answered back … “crickets” all around.

And as a result of the front running of the reports, all markets have done, 
specifically GBPUSD, is get “monkey hammered” 40 - 100 PIPS lower, and 
then fart around and wait for the next event to roll around and it happens 
again … since it was at the 1.40000 level [now at 1.36000 - 1.36300 level], this is 
the complete M.O. for this market, with not much in the way of anything, 
besides the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] yo-yo machine, but up/down of 
30 - 50 PIPS … today, no exception.

Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … clusterfark of gaps lower and short 
covering … that’s it in a nutshell. Have tried to be short all day, from every 
level, and almost without exception, got it shoved up my nose, sometimes 
quickly.

A shipload of trades today … PAMM down about $360, or about 0.6%.

No way to sugarcoat this donkey mauling, as all day long, outside of a couple of 
long trades, I attempted to stay short, and every time had to fight a market that 
wanted to go higher … and even when I had a lead in price, it came roaring 
back so fast to the upside, the trade provided little in the way of profit.

I feel like the grade school kid, whose Mom sent him to school one day when it 
was raining, and she got him all dressed up in his rubber boots and raincoat 
with hat, and put his books in a plastic bag, and sent him off to walk 3 blocks to 
school … and when he got there, he was soaking wet, and got sent home to 
change. What the hell happened?

I wish I could say, “well, I was trying to buy the bottoms all day long and got it 
rammed up my nose … that at least would make sense … but no, looking at the 
M15, I should have made a frickin’ killing today, and instead I got paper cut to 
death … very frustrating, and it’s a miracle there is anything in the house 
electronic that still works that didn’t have my fist go through it”. Aside from 
having the machines turned off twice, I’d cover a short position and it would be 
higher than where I sold it, and I’m looking for a signal or a good place to sell, 
and then … BOOM! … down it goes 4 - 7 PIPS in less than a second, and starts 
to run to the downside like a horse galloping out of control, and you either 
“sell it in the hole”, or watch it get the “Thelma & Louise” routine. In any event, 
I’m not in it, and minutes later it’s anywhere from 20 - 30 lower, and the 
process starts all over again … where the hell were you when I was short?

Well, here we are, down around 1.36000, from 1.43000 in 11 trading days 
… from here on down, until this stuff bottoms and rallies some, staying short is 
going to be rough going, and my hypothesis is that Cable needs to go lower at 
our 06:00 open, and then reverse off a bottom, and then look the hell out on the 
upside … I’m not saying it’s gonna rally “bigly & yuge”, like 200 PIPS, but 
there are so many shorts in here right now, it’s a very crowded trade. 
Tomorrow sees a FED meeting on interest rates, so anything goes at 2 P.M.

What I’m going to do going forward starting tomorrow, is give the early initial 
trades more “room to work”, and I won’t be nearly as quick to liquidate them, 
thus allowing the trade more time to take a hold of the short term trend … it’s 
a long day, and with the way this stuff moves, it’s what we’re looking for 
anyway.

Trader rule top ten: “put it behind you and move forward … it happens”. But I 
will tell you this; “unless I’m dead, the short covering rally off of this on a 
reversal bottom, I’m gonna be all over like white on rice … whenever it is, and 
whatever level it comes from … not prejudging anything, but I know it’s coming 
and coming very soon”. I’m outta here for a cold one, maybe 2, maybe … until 
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet updated and posted either tonight or 
tomorrow.  

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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