HERE WE GO AGAIN

 

“Even the monkeys are tired of the bullshit of “speed of light … crickets” trading!”

They may not have cared yesterday, but it’s a new day back from drinking &

partying over in the Pacific Rim, and USDJPY is back to the “lightning strikes”

followed by “crickets”, and the blowing up the 20 Day Range MA, even before the

sun comes up in New York … “Here we F-ing go again with this horseshit!” … the

day hasn’t even started yet, and here we are with an almost 200 PIP range, leaving

us with a “probability of event” that the range goes higher still being very low,

certainly well below 5% … like those odds, you’ll love Las Vegas!

And the way things are headed, the monetary Dopes over at the BOJ, headed by

“Peter Pan” [I think I can!] Kuroda could care less, convinced by insanity, that a

depreciating YEN [USDJPY goes HIGHER]  going towards ZERO is somehow in

the country’s best interest … like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and of course Weimar

Germany from 100 years ago, just look at how “prosperous” they became from

hyperinflation and a rush towards a depreciating currency … but, “this time it’s

different” goes the mantra … sure, sure it is … you people in Japan have my

sympathies!

USDJPY sitting now at 142, and charts become useless at this point, cuz you got

to go back to pre electronic trading, back into the 20th century pre 1998 to see a

lower YEN … a much different time and place for trading that doesn’t exist today

… in other words, “uncharted territory” … “gosh Columbus, you really think

there’s land out there, or do we fall off the end of the earth first!?” … and that’s

where the YEN is right now, cuz nobody has a clue where this ends or how low

it can go … however, rest assured, if the same Idiots are left unchecked and still

in charge in Japan, we ain’t anywhere near a bottom!

And so, here we go again, faced with the two biggest problems associated with

this kind of move in USDJPY, one that we’ve seen repeatedly over these last

months that infuriates the shit out of traders on this side of the globe, and gets

me to ask the not so rhetorical question, “what, I gotta move to fucking Thailand

to trade now?”  … 1) where’s new buying gonna come from today AFTER  a 200

PIP move higher, and 2) taking all trading days into consideration,, we’re now

OVER 150%+ of the 20 Day Range MA for this week in USDJPY, so what’s the

approximate probability the range can be extended higher still? … as to the first,

not many people want to buy a 200 PIP rally, with New York not having even

started yet, and second the probability of an extended range from here is small

… very small … you’re pissing into the wind of a CAT5 hurricane and not

expecting to get hit if you think your chances of success look good … not saying

it can’t happen, just saying it’s gotta very rotten track record! … if we can get

decent corrective activity of something on the order of 30+ PIPS or so, buy

signals would more than likely make sense … 5 PIPS off the high and we’re sitting

here, not so much … and remember, scalping this shit at Turnkey is next to

impossible, so there has to be more potential meat on the bone in a trade to get

me to bite on a theoretical buy signal … otherwise, what sense does it make for

a trade hoping, wishing, and eventually praying when it doesn’t work, that some

kind of Keno miracle bails your ass out of a jam? … is pure luck now a trading

strategy??

It simply is what it is, and unless a trader on this side of the globe is willing to

become a meth addict and trade 24/5, these “lightning strike moves” will happen

in abundance when you’re away from your machine or asleep … and while it

frustrates the living shit out of me to no end, there isn’t anything anybody can

do about it, other than move to the Pacific Rim and trade there … put the

“big girl panties” on and just deal with it and move on.

Now up 8 days in a row including today, the buying avalanches from the ChiComs

at some point in the Asian session, and simply snowballs from there … and we’re

at the point where total FOMO on the way UP is taking hold … doesn’t matter how

stupid the trade, further buying will find bigger suckers than you for you to get out,

and this will work brilliantly … until it doesn’t … now Houston, we got a problem! 

We’re not quite there yet, but today has a feeling of a mini “blow off” to the upside

… now up almost 300 PIPS, USDJPY at 143,, and a move tomorrow above 145 and

you simply got to be extremely careful about being long … as for today, party on

Garth, cuz screw the odds cuz being long is an ATM spitting out cash … until of

course, it doesn’t … then see what happens next if the snowball starts moving

lower … not prediction’, just sayin’ … where USDJPY is at now, we’re in

“The Twilight Zone” of currency depreciation, and whatever you think, simply

“unthink” it cuz it only exists in your head … USDJPY CAN GO ANYWHERE

from here … ANYWHERE!

Well, here we are at the end of the session, and quite frankly the day was over

before it even began … it’s easy to sit there and say in hindsight, “oh, I should

have been long from the get go, knowing the result … but in reality, today’s mini

melt up in USDJPY only gets part of what losses you’d be getting back over the

last several years when/if you bucked the probability odds and did “stupid shit”

… and just cuz it would have worked, doesn’t mean it’s not stupid shit … it’ll be

here tomorrow, and we’ll still be in “The Twilight Zone” … did nothing today cuz

it never had any corrective action … let’s see what tomorrow brings.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

NOT UNSURPRISINGLY, THE WORLD SAYS NOT TODAY

 

“Last 3 or 4 day weekend of Summer, and nobody cares about FX!”

This day isn’t even worth commenting on … cya tomorrow … got some grilling

to do that’s far more important than anything in FX is doing … the Mrs. wants

her steak soon! 

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: THE “U.S.-ISTAN” IS FINISHED!

 

“Emperor Sith Nero Biden turns the U.S. towards oblivion & irrelevance!”

Except for delusional Libtards, who somehow think they will forever be immune

from government totalitarianism, I can’t imagine anyone who thinks “Taliban

Joe’s” channeling of his inner Goebbels went over well in his “Der Fuhrer”

speech … what an embarrassment … while Nero fiddles, Rome burns … and

somehow history finds a way to repeat endlessly cuz the human capacity for

hubris, hypocrisy, corruption, & power never seems to fade but grow stronger

… meanwhile, don’t look now, but while the West disintegrates from self-inflicted

suicide from “wokeness” and all the endless bullshit that goes with it, the rest of

the world, including Russia seem to be getting along OK … and while the Ruskies

burn off $11 million dollars of Natty Gas PER DAY from one of their refineries,

the idiot Germans, French, & of course the Brits can fucking freeze to death in

a few short weeks.

Remember when “Taliban Joe” said his sanctions would turn the Russian Ruble

into rubble? … “how’s that workin’ out Dipweed?” … quite frankly both the

Ruskies & ChiComs are setting in motion their respective currencies convertible

into gold, and have already set up mechanisms to bypass the U.S. and the Swift

system of payments … and from the looks of it, plenty of countries that are sick

& tired of being sick & tired of U.S. bullshit, namely India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia,

and the list includes dozens more, are finding it benefits them to stay away from

the one country that will ALWAYS STICK A KNIFE IN YOUR BACK AT CRUNCH

TIME … AND THAT COUNTRY IS THE U.S.A.! … how much longer does a

bankrupt, morally indefensible, highly corrupt society have until it fractures into

ten thousand pieces? … and its markets? … they’re already corrupt as the day is

long, manipulated by a central bank of Lounge Lizards beholden to the

Rothchild’s banking group now more than ever.

Meanwhile, every other central bank wants to see who can be the first to bankrupt

their own country with idiotic policies … and to that extent, the BOJ and

“Peter Pan” Kuroda have no equal … right now, it’s tough to see how they come

back from hyperinflation on the horizon, and the insanely funny thing is, there are

people who think the YEN is a “safe haven” currency … really? … sorry, but I fail

to see “safe haven” in something that’s down about 40% in 29 months!

Cable gets a new PM tomorrow, and this is a train wreck waiting to happen … but

no worries, the Royal Fam is doing OK, while the rest of the country starves to

death and will soon freeze, while businesses go bankrupt over insane utility bills

… maybe if they all wore a ribbon to show solidarity, that would “solve” the

problem … bwahahahahaha! … sounds like something an idiot POL would do,

doesn’t it? … back in Germany, though, not too many Adolph’s are laughing

anymore at the thought of not having heat for winter … again, nothing but

horseshit from POLS who have no answers, but don’t worry cuz their villas will

have heat … rules are for the little people, if you haven’t figured that out by now.

Directly below the 20 Day Range MA for selected markets.

click on table to enlarge

Summer might not be officially over until the 21st, but it’s over and markets now

get to deal with the 2 worst months of the year for historical declines, and the

way the world is reacting to its self inflicted problems isn’t encouraging at all

… get ready for some Hellacious moves coming in the days / weeks ahead, and I

wouldn’t be surprised to see USDJPY go parabolic over 150+, for the very simple

reason inflation is out of control and the FED has no clue to deal with it

effectively … killing demand is their answer, but good luck killing demand for

energy & food, and thus interest rates on the 10 YR. Treasury seem a good bet

to climb ever higher, while the insane BOJ just prints more YEN to manipulate

their bond market … something has got to give, and right now my best

guesstimate is the currency gets destroyed in a parabolic move, followed by

panic political moves … in other words, plenty to chew on for the foreseeable

future! … onto the week!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

NFP IDIOCY DAY … WHO SAYS “MAKE BELIEVE” AIN’T REAL?

“NFP … Another sickening display of government lies!”

Well, that escalated quickly, didn’t it? … let’s see, screw the longs, then screw

the shorts, now back to the longs getting buttonholed … seems perfectly normal

for an NFP, who’s only real function is to allow scumbag banks to steal money in

the first 10 minutes or so after the number is released … why should today be

any different?

The 10 YR. Treasury is sliding, thus USDJPY is falling … what, we can’t go up

every day? … see my shocked face … in any event, it’s gut check time for the

uber bulls in USDJPY as we approach 140 … can it hold? … and if not, where’s

the bottom Skippy, in a market that has about as much volume and liquidity as

“Beanie Babies” at a crafts fair … not a Helluva lot here to say the least.

Even before the criminal NYSE opened, USDJPY had slowed down to a crawl,

and now it’s in the “Loser Formation” of going straight sideways screwing

everybody … who knows how long this lasts? … “meh, just another unchanged

day!, albeit with ZERO VOLUME & LIQUIDITY, and if we closed here it would be a

“gravestone doji” on the daily chart … long way to the close, though, so we’ll see,

but trading action right now literally sucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a

whole lot worse to the end of the day … an uneventful London Fix, where they

tried mightily to shove FX major pairs higher into buy stops, but just couldn’t pull

it off, and now we drift some more … quite frankly, this is disappointing, but not

unexpected, as trading into a 3 day weekend often times sees very muted flows

and interest … and outside of a little YEN trade action earlier, which disappeared

“el quicko mucho”, there simply isn’t anything here to hang your hat on, simply

cuz it’s nothing more than a scumbag LP bank PONZI SCHEME, where they

control the vertical & horizontal, know the order flow, and end up gutting specs

like fish … that’s where we’re at … not a pretty picture, just mindless

bullshit chop.

No trades today, cuz no corrective action led to further movement up … it’s the

“one shot & done” syndrome, and now it’s moving in the other direction in the

infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] … can’t extend the pathetic range, cuz

there’s no volume from anywhere to support that … blog update on Sunday.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

THE CASINO IS BADLY BROKEN

 

“It’s simple … you’re not meant to win!”

Another day, another bag of flaming dog poo coming into dawn in New York 

… not much even to comment about until ranges & moves pick up across the

board … yes, this is pathetic, and all anybody can do is wait it out … “Europe,

what the Hell are you doing?” … all we get are “speed of light … crickets”, today

being a prime example, where more than 50% of the day’s range [at the time] in

USDJPY happens in a microsecond at 10 AM EST … followed of course by a

spread that blows out to 5 PIPS at Turnkey … what a bunch of LP thieves, but

sadly we already know that.

There simply is no volume, less liquidity, and quite frankly the system is broken

… across markets, from “Stock Bellies” to crude oil, open interest is the lowest

in at least 7 years in futures, and volume is almost non-existent … nobody is

willing to hedge, nobody is willing to make a market, and resting orders have

disappeared … and when markets go, civilization isn’t far behind! … all that’s

left are scumbag banks front running orders with their illegal offshore prop

accounts.

This is no secret, as numerous articles over on ZH the last few months have

pointed out the depths of the problems … and nowhere is this more apparent

than in FX, especially USDJPY, where I’m beginning to wonder when Japan

renames its currency to the “Peso” or “Bolivar”, and how much more pain can

consumers take before protests & riots start to break out … watching USDJPY,

you wonder if there is anybody anywhere in an institutional capacity that is

making some kind of market … USDJPY is a cross between the go-go days of

Bitcoin, and pork belly spreads, and each day brings more bullshit than I’m willing

to handle and process … the moves reflect the 10 YR. Treasury rate, but the

correlation is all over the place … one day rates go up and USDJPY hardly notices

… the next day rates go up lower than the day before, and it explodes to the

upside … meanwhile both EURUSD & GBPUSD are “mental basket cases” that

belong in a frickin’ psyche ward … long or short, good luck getting any follow

through for your trade … and yea, you’re still subject to the spikes from Hell

[up & down], so you get no break there, and one look at the daily chart and you

wonder why even trade it, it looks so pathetic … I agree, it’s terrible action, so

why pay attention to it? … which brings us back to USDJPY, cuz it’s the only one

that has “RANGE” … ALBEIT, NOT GETTING PUT IN ANYWHERE NEAR LIKE I

WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT! … the biggest problem is lack of consistency in VIX

… one hour the “Trading Ratio” [TR] is 2 … 2 hours later it’s above 5, but after

about 45 minutes goes back under 3 … what bullshit, and it belies the fact there

is no volume to speak of in any consistent manner … and then can easily go

into the “Loser Formation” for hours on end before the next C-4 explosion to the

upside / downside … scumbag banks watch this order flow carefully, but

unfortunately we have no way to get the same info … we got MFI, but that

includes all volume, not just spec, and while helpful, it’s not the “golden ring”.

Manipulators have learned very well, that in FX it’s “never give a sucker an even

break”, meaning when it runs it continues to run cuz they ain’t gonna let it

correct, and if you want in, you buy the rally or sell the break … and when it’s over,

it’s over, and it can do anything it wants … rallies that go nowhere, breaks that go

nowhere, now back to the middle or the other side … this is the infamous “Flying

Wedge of Death” [FWD] that killed so many floor traders back in pit trading days,

as they were always looking for an extension of the range … and during periods

when that didn’t happen, they ran out of money first before ranges expanded!

… during this Summer, ranges have held up pretty well, but these last few weeks

have really sucked … hopefully that will end now that we’re into September

… but remember, it ends when it ends and not before!

Coming into the New York session, USDJPY had one of the worst multi hour

sessions I’ve seen in a while … then came some stats from the math Whiz Kids

and we popped higher … a couple of buy signals I could have taken but didn’t,

simply cuz the spread at Turnkey was a joke for a good hour, well above 2 PIPS,

and I ain’t trading that or handing these assholes free money … I did have one

algorithm buy signal in USDJPY … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … it ended up

being a scalp, cuz once in it, it very quickly moved over 80 in the MFI, which is

“danger zone” territory, so I liquidated … 10 seconds later it’s 10 lower, which tells

you all you need to know about volumes & liquidity … wasn’t looking for the scalp,

just happened to turn out that way, this time cuz of MFI.

Tomorrow is NFP Friday, oh joy oh fun … and about an hour after that into the

London Fix, and things will dry up going into Labor Day weekend “el mucho

quicko” … maybe even sooner, dunno … onto tomorrow … I’M OUTTA HERE

… “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks

armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas