The actual skyrocketing of interest rates, plus the FED Lounge Lizard talk of more
to come for longer, sent gold tumbling from ATH’s last February [$2060 level] to
around $1600 in late October early November … and in the last 10 - 11 weeks, gold
has climbed over $250 per OZ on “hopes” of a FED pivot … in that time really only
one week of any decline at all, the rest marching ever higher … meanwhile, crude
oil is getting crushed, down about $20 per barrel over the same period … which is
it gonna be, QE Infinity and let the CNTRL-P money printing machine go bat shit
crazy [BSC] more, more-er, and more-er-er and we get commodity inflation lifting
all boats, OR a recession/depression cratering every asset class out there and
rates tumble? … gold says the former, crude oil says something quite different
… one of these markets is lying and has it all wrong … which is it?
It’s impossible to ignore crude oil cuz it ain’t manipulated by the FED, and all of
the bullshit of their money printing schemes … it’s a phyz market … printing
money can’t help you produce or deliver a barrel of oil … on the other hand, we
all know about the “Rally Protection Team” [RPT] and the suppression of the
gold price by big banks, along with the hypothecation of gold in the paper market
… the flow of gold from West to East continues at a record pace … if any market
is “lying” it’s more apt to be gold cuz it’s manipulated more … that doesn’t mean,
though, that gold is automatically wrong and oil is right.
Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … 7 hours of gold action to the upside, taken
out in 13 minutes to the downside as New York opens … see my shocked face
… even if the FED does “pivot” soon, and even if tomorrow’s important CPI
inflation print is soft, the FED is gonna have to pivot hard to justify the gains
already seen in gold, and interest rates have got to tumble more … that means an
engineered recession/depression followed by QE Infinity to make the financial
bubble inflate again … and if we don’t get that, gold is extended at these levels
and has room to severely disappoint those who are long from way above 1800
… and if that’s the case, the red spikes from Hell will be quick & vicious to the
downside … sell stops beware, you’re likely to get filled at the panic bottom
… this is the way of gold … this is its DNA.
Of course, the propaganda of the financial MSM is as bad as it is with the regular
MSM, and since everybody and their pet monkey is looking for a softer CPI print,
don’t be surprised to see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of response from
gold, if that turns out to be the case … but if we get a hot CPI print, and it’s a
sigma miss to the upside, gold more than likely gets taken out back and shot in
the head on higher rates … and given the fact we’re up over $250 off the lows
from 10 weeks ago, there’s plenty of sell stops to gorge on by the bullion banks
who’ve been selling it to specs all the way up … a good 2 or 3 day monkey
hammering to wipe out spec longs is overdue.
Gold moves in large cycles … there’s a time to be short gold, and trade it from the
sell side, and then there are periods to trade it from the long side and be only
long … usually, this follows interest rate cycles engineered by the Lounge
Lizards, especially shorter term rates … and right now, we’re in that period of
being long … the cries for pausing or pivoting from higher rates is only getting
stronger, as nobody believes what the FED says … and for gold, this started in
late October and early November … we’re only 10 - 11 weeks into this longer cycle,
so IMHO there’s definitely room to go higher, with not much potential to the
downside [maybe a $100 - $150 or so, but not much more than that] … forget NFP,
it’s the inflation data that matters … flawed as it is, it’s all the market gets.
Turning to today, where we’re the day before the roulette wheel spins for CPI, and
into the New York afternoon it’s been nothing short, so far, of brief intense selling,
followed by hours of the “Loser Formation” … straight up in the Asian session
into Europe, and straight down from the time New York got going around 8 AM
EST … once the criminal NYSE money laundering operation opened and got going,
the “Trading Ratio” [TR] went to the 3 level, where it’s been sitting the entire day
so far … too bad we got no bounces to speak of and the entire day is a walk down
the stairs … again, so far … who knows with gold, anything can/will happen
… and by extension, the same can be said for crude oil as well.
Nothing like getting fucked by an LP to the tune of about $1 in gold slippage
… and once again, once volumes go higher they are waiting to take you out back
and first mug you, then rob you, then rape you and shoot you in the head
… screwing us about 35 cents on the way in, and then a nice 65 cent haircut
“mystery tick lower” fill on my liquidation … all on a nice algo buy signal near the
bottom … a winner turned into a loser … and once it’s over, within an eye blink
it’s back to where I should have gotten filled … of course it was … and so once
again, the lying, thieving, LP bullion dealer asshole at Coinexx for gold, which is
where Turnkey has gone to die, live up to their status … quite frankly, with
nothing really happening, what does that portend when conditions get more
active? … and so it’s “CYA gold, GFY, cuz I’m not putin’ up with this shit for
a second”.
Which simply means it’s time to refocus on crude oil … “If they’re gonna screw us
in the SP500 [they did], and they’re gonna doubly screw us in gold [which they
just did], we might as well be in the VIX leader, which is crude oil [excluding Natty
Gas cuz it can’t be traded as a CFD cuz no house has a decent spread that is
acceptable] … quite frankly, between phyz markets, it’s tons bigger than gold and
not nearly as corrupt … in retrospect, I should’ve gone with crude before gold for
the PAMM, but that’s water under the bridge … better to find out now than later
how we get treated on higher volumes … oil has been a little quiet lately, but I
expect that to change … as long as the 20 Day Range MA is above $2 [which it is
by plenty of room], there shouldn’t be any chop issues that last very long … and
as long as the bid/offer spread holds at acceptable levels, which it has for a while
now indicating they finally got some decent oil LP’s, crude is a VIX “winner
winner, chicken dinner” … like gold, it’s a New York market, so there’s no issue
there, and it usually gets going about an hour into the European session, so if
you’re inclined to trade it slightly earlier if appropriate, there aren’t any issues
with a slightly longer trading day, as long as the TR is 3 or greater.
The version 2 trading algorithm is perfectly suited for trading crude … faster to
the punch, with less “false positives”, and quicker exits [liquidations] on
positions, long near bottoms or short near tops, than the “Energy Trading
Algorithm” I used earlier … the version 2 algorithm will be released this Sunday
on my blog update … as I’ve stated before, it’s much better at LOWER VIX levels,
so even if we get a lackluster day, the algorithm will still produce excellent
signals … not to worried about that in crude given world events and supply /
demand issues all over the place, and with the ChiComs doing a 180 backflip on
COVID, it’s only a matter of time before crude starts climbing in earnest on
economic recovery … the Mrs. loves to trade crude, and it’s one of her top 2
markets … and once again, while I’m getting hosed in gold, she’s making a
killing following the algo in crude … today seeing some really great algo buy
signals in crude once the oil inventories report was out and reported … ME:
“honey, can I get a raise in my allowance?” … the MRS: “NO!, but here’s a tip
… trade crude and buy low and sell high!” … thanks baby, you’re the best!
From my perspective, crude doesn’t have nearly the direct interest rate exposure
that gold has … it’s more indirect, meaning higher rates “could” slow demand
from a slowing economy … historically, though, demand has been rather inelastic
when it comes to oil usage, and unless there’s a really deep recession bordering
on depression, the effect interest rates might have on crude is limited … and what
this means is simple … crude can easily be traded both long and short cuz the
cycles for crude tend to be much shorter than other markets … it’s more of a
supply / demand issue at the margins around the world that matters most … and
that means volatility … so in this regard, it’s better than gold … again, it all boils
down to what it costs to trade the CFD … these last few months into the end of
2022, and so far in 2023, bid/offer spreads have been acceptable to good … and if
that holds, which it should, then crude is “good to go” … as readers will
remember, I’ve always said that if crude has good conditions for trading, there’s
no need to trade anything else … it’s got it all, so no need to look around for
another market … Turnkey was terrible, absolutely awful … so far, Coinexx LP or
group of LP’s in oil has been acceptable to good … I dunno if it will ever get to
“excellent”, but competition from a variety of houses [SIMPLE FX, XBTFX to
name just 2] is helping the oil CFD market by lowering costs … quite frankly, it’s
about frickin’ time.
Multiple buy signal algorithm trades today in gold AND WTI crude oil
… PAMM UNCH’D … hosed in gold, and an algo buy signal trade in crude made
it back … spread in crude was good, latency acceptable, and no slippage on entry
or liquidation … I mean, what’s not to like about that? … from what information I
have from Coinexx, the LP or group of LP’s in Brent and/or WTI Crude oil are oil
brokers … they deal both in spot oil and futures … no scumbag banks, no
screwball HFT’s, and no bullion dealers … they’re oil firms … quite frankly, unless
the LP is going 100% off front month futures [regular or micro], and is pricing
according to that, which most CFD’s don’t do, having oil trading firms as LP’s in
most cases would be advantageous … make no mistake, though, the CFD tracks
futures closely … so far so good, can’t complain … as far as volumes go, I’ll
probably go slightly higher, but it shouldn’t have any effect on spread, latency, or
fills … I don’t anticipate slugging it out with an oil company or refiner!
A decent range today in WTI crude oil [so far] … New York session a respectable
$2.47, and the daily range at $3.48 … trading action and conditions excellent today,
and things got rolling with the oil inventories report at 10:30 AM EST [every
Wednesday] which missed “bigly & yuge” … looking for a build, got a big draw,
and that sparked crude higher … plenty to chew on in this market going forward
… we’ll be OK in crude that’s for sure … everything we need or want is there … and
if I see the spread balloon out, I’ll just sit it out until it gets back to normal … not
any different than any other market when it comes to that … tomorrow sees CPI
inflation numbers at 8:30 AM EST … we’ll see how it affects crude and simply
follow the version 2 algorithm … onto tomorrow!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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