There are 3 classes of people trading crypto … 1) they know what they’re doing,
2) they kinda know but aren’t sure, and 3) the completely clueless wandering in
from other markets … and the reason they wander in from other markets, is cuz
“other markets” are manipulated pieces of shit and they’re sick & tired of being
sick & tired, thank you very much FED! … and today, I’m gonna lay out your only
2 choices when it comes to trading crypto.
If you desire to trade BTC, ETH, and the alt-coins [basically anything other than
BTC, although ETC can be lumped into this as well] you’re going to find the
“open order book” platforms the place to be FOR THE MOST TRANSPARENT
PRICE & EXECUTION … [Note: I didn’t say “best deal”, I said most transparent.]
… places like BINANCE & PHEMEX come to mind … and in order to utilize
leverage, you’re gonna need to trade the “perpetual futures”, which usually have
leverage of 20X on everything, and BTC with leverage up to 100X … these are
“offshore” and by far have the largest volumes & liquidity in the world, and are
supposedly “off limits” to U.S. citizens and/or residents … which is a complete
joke, cuz they’re NO KYC and people simply use a good VPN to be anywhere they
want to be in the world … deposit / withdraw in crypto and literally nobody cares.
The problem with the “open order book” platforms, isn’t the bid/offer spreads,
which are literal pennies … the problem is the “gas fees” [a/k/a commissions] to
get the transaction on the block chain … and “gas fees” run the gamut, from very
competitive to downright “stinks to high heaven” … the average though, for a
round turn trade is around 0.1% of the notional value of the trade … for example,
for ETHUSD if priced at $3,000, your commission would be $3 … some houses,
like PHEMEX, offer rebates of 0.25% to customers if they do a limit order and it’s
executed … sounds good, but when price is flying limit orders can be next to
impossible to get executed, and cuz customers get rewarded for limit orders, they
also get punished for market orders, where at PHEMEX it’s 0.075% of the notional
value of your order … do 2 market orders, and you’re paying 0.15% … places like
BINANCE don’t do rebates, but give volume discounts … however, unless you’re
doing hundreds of millions or BILLIONS per month in orders, you ain’t gonna be
getting any discount that matters … when price is flying, yea the $3 or $4.50 can
be easily overcome, but when it sits you now are stuck inside the cost of the trade.
Then there are places like Turnkey, where crypto is on the MT4 or MT5 … you don’t
get the crypto selection available at the “open order book” platforms, and there is
ZERO TRANSPARENCY WHEN IT COMES TO FILLS … you have an LP or group of
LP’s, who are large HFT’s not banks, and you trade with them … here though, the
bid/offer spread can be a major problem, whereas commissions are pennies, where
today for example in ETHUSD, when the Asian session was ending and Europe
opening ETH rallied about $60 - $65, and the spread at Turnkey went from about
50 cents to around $7 at the top of the move … rip people who are short a new one,
and rob people who are long of some of their profits … quite frankly, they aren’t
liquidity providers, they are market makers looking to bend you over a fence and
pay them more than necessary … why? … cuz they know full well traders with
losses are forced into covering so pay up Skippy! … and they know full well those
long want to take profits, so here’s my “low ball” bid, take it or leave it, cuz if you
want out you got to pay me more! … LP’s don’t do this, market makers DO! … and
that’s what you CONSISTENTLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH IN CRYPTO, at houses that
pretend they’re competitive ALL THE TIME BUT AREN’T … and I’m not even
counting shitbox houses like SimpleFX, or countless others, where the spread is
so wide and ridiculous, only ignorant NEWBIES would click the button … these
are the choices folks.
Now, most of the time Turnkey has excellent costs, but as today points out, it can
turn into a complete ripoff at the drop of a hat … for those of you out there that
have crypto on an MT4 [Turnkey or any other house], that have noticed the
sometimes huge discrepancy in spreads, and are constantly doing the mental
math back & forth before hitting an order, over in “Download Links” I have an mq4
file called “Spread Indicator” which shows the spread in numerical form in real
time, and you place it right on the M1 chart … simply download and install onto
the MT4 … directly below, a screenshot of what the indicator looks like.
When you put it onto the M1 chart, it will initially show up in the top left hand
corner of the chart … it defaults to color red, but you can pick whatever color you
want … double click on the numerical value and place it wherever you want on
your chart for best viewing, this way it’s right there in front of you when
buying/selling, and you know what kind of spread you’re experiencing without
guessing … if you trade any crypto pair on the MT4, this indicator is very helpful.
Today all markets except crypto very quiet in the Asian & European sessions,
waiting for those “transitory” inflation numbers coming at 8:30 EST [New York],
where I doubt seriously there’s gonna be any relief from higher inflation … they’ll
spin it like they always do, and there will be a gaggle of Apparatchiks on financial
news networks telling you “not to worry”, it’s all under control … sure, sure it is
… how fucking stupid do they think we really are?
We’re in the 22nd day of a rally in ETHUSD, where only 2days have been down,
and currently we’re up 7 out of the last 8 days … what I fear is another parabolic
lift off, that sees ETH go bat shit crazy [BSC] to the upside … cuz when the Dopes
FOMO-ing the shit out of this stuff like THEY DID back in May, then comes another
crash as they all hit the exit gate at the same exact time … hopefully cooler heads
prevail and conditions can stay somewhat orderly, cuz if they don’t it all becomes
untradeable in spades … and this we don’t need … but we’ll see.
Inflation numbers out, and cuz we’re not Venezuela YET, “Stonks” of course love
any news, so they shoot higher, with “Stock Bellies” hitting another new ATH
right before the cash NYSE open, cuz everything is so wonderful … how delightful,
inflation is ONLY AT 5% and not 10% [yet], so let’s party like it’s New Year’s Eve
1999 … I just love how Gubermint strips food & energy out of “core” inflation, as
if it doesn’t matter … again, Sheeple are stupid and they’ll eat whatever shit
sandwich the Gubermint feeds them … why should this time be any different?
… but anyway, IF “Stock Bellies” ever do go down again in my lifetime, I’ll be there
to make the long trades … until then I ain’t chasing fucking rainbows! … and we
get set for another “Feed the Chipmunks” criminal NYSE open … what a
clusterfark this shitshow circus has become … just another casino day
in “Murica.
And of course, once the damage is done to the Chipmunks, “”Stock Bellies” go
into the “Loser Formation” after the open for 2 hours+, which is typical cuz
manipulators gotta crush VIX … but here at NOON in New York, the NDX100 is
sprouting some leaks and taking on water, and the vaunted SP500 is stuck in
mud … quite frankly, nothing to trade here cuz outside of the lightning strikes, it’s
“crickets trading”, and the trade action is terrible.
Just like in traditional manipulated ‘markets’ [cough, bullshit, cough], HFT LP’s
in crypto, especially the ones on MT4 / MT5 and/or other proprietary platforms,
aren’t going to allow you to scalp them all day long and make easy coin
… besides being scumbags and stealing every penny they can, from their
perspective scalping is for them and not you … to some extent, crypto is no
different, but the manipulators in crypto [whales] manipulate for a far different
reason than the dirtbags over on the Gubermint side of traditional mainstream
markets … in crypto, they manipulate for profit, not to kill specs, and that
increases VIX, which helps us … in order to combat that, the scumbag LP or
LP’s at Turnkey manipulate the spread, thus making you pay for the move they’re
gonna make a market in … for most of today, I’ve been watching closely this
relationship between price moves and the spread in ETH, and while I can’t totally
eliminate their “scumbaggery”, there are things I can do to minimize it
… unfortunately for us today in ETH, once Europe opened some 10 - 12 hours
ago, ETH has been in a very tight range of about $35 - $40, and the one run that
saw the high for the day, the scumbag LP blew the spread out to OVER $7+ … this
from the usual $0.50 - $1.50 normal spread, so that move we had to skip
… otherwise a pretty choppy and slow day, cuz most of the action came in the
Asian session … but on the whole, even with some moves unavailable to us cuz
of LP scumbaggery, the trading in ETH at Turnkey should go well for us … the
algorithm is exceptional.
No trades today in the TURNKEY PAMM.
Meanwhile for “The Syndicate”, I traded some ETHUSD today on algo signals,
AND WE’RE UP APPROXIMATELY 0.55% … I’m somewhat disappointed in myself
cuz I think I could have easily gotten more, but nonetheless it is what it is and we
move onto tomorrow … I’d be surprised if we’re up significantly more tomorrow
in ETH, cuz it feels like some corrective activity is headed here very soon … but,
we’ll see … now, if we can get Turnkey’s LP to behave the PAMM can enjoy the
gains as well.
Outta here early before my head explodes [again!!] … “the future looks so bright,
I need sunglasses”! 😎… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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