There is no perfect market to trade any longer … government manipulators have
made sure of that … everything comes with a price … so it comes down to a
matter of priorities … PAMM’s cannot trade futures, cuz worldwide exchanges
have ruled futures contracts cannot be split up into proportional fractions … so
that leaves CFD’s, and a whole host of issues involving our favorite parasites,
the LP’s … and for most CFD’s, the LP’s are HFT’s, not scumbag banks, and they
pretty much can do whatever the hell they want.
As I’ve said many times, “Stock Bellies” [major world stock indices] exist in a
paradigm of the “88/6/6” rule … not sure if the foreign indices are quite as strong
as the U.S, indices, but nonetheless they follow along in lockstep pretty much all
of the time … so, how confident am I that my premise is accurate? … “Hoover
Dam” accurate!
In February of 2016, the FED came along and went “all in” to save the crude oil
industry from bankruptcy & disaster … since then, THEY’VE ONLY UPPED THEIR
GAME, to the point now where they’re involved about every 5 minutes of the day
manipulating something. Directly below a table for the DOW30 since 2016, that I
think you will find most instructive.
What’s interesting here, is that you can expect every year [thanks to the FED &
their “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] manipulators] for about 10% of the trading
days in the DOW30 to MAYBE give traders trading from the LONG SIDE ONLY a
problem in making money for that day … the key word here is “MAYBE” … now, I
can’t scroll back and look at every M1 for the last 6 ½ years, but to give us a
glimpse of what might be, I can right now scroll back on my Turnkey MT4 M1’s
back about 2 months … looking at the daily candlestick charts for the DOW30
CFD, you’ll notice the following dates were pretty good down days … those dates
are, 6/16, 6/18, 7/6, 7/16, & 7/19 … scrolling back and looking at those dates and
the M1’s from around the European open [3 AM EST (New York)] to the end of
the NYSE cash session [4 PM EST (New York], a span of about 13 hours, there’s
no doubt if you were SHORT you could have made a bundle … OK, how about if
you got long via the scalping algorithm, what happened on those days?
… ANSWER: “you still made money cuz there were ample opportunities for long
scalps that were profitable”!
It should be obvious, that on sideways days or UP DAYS, opportunities to make
money from the long side are plentiful … it’s really only the down days that
should concern the algorithm … well, of the 5 large down days I just highlighted
NONE PRESENTED A PROBLEM … of course, over time it’s not gonna be like
that at 0%, so my GUESSTIMATE IS [and I’m being pessimistic cuz it’s probably
lower than this] about 60% of “potential” problem days for longs MIGHT BE A
PROBLEM … well, if that’s the case, then the table above can be adjusted from a
TOTAL of 139 PROBLEM days over 6 ½ years, to 83 … 83/1435 = ~6% … and so,
what we end up with is a paradigm for trading AT WORST THAT IS “94/6”, AND
MOST LIKELY IS CLOSER TO “97/3” OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT!
… and now you know why I think it is highly inadvisable to look for shorting
opportunities when trading any of the stock indices … if I gave you probabilities
like this in Las Vegas, there isn’t a single one of you reading this that wouldn’t
pack up and leave tonight!
And what we end up with are indices markets THAT MOVE CONSISTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, especially the DOW30 as the highest index in the world
group … this is vastly different than anything in FX … the absolute key though,
is eliminating [or more likely] / minimizing slippage on fills from the scumbag
HFT’s, as well as finding a place to trade with an acceptable spread & commish
structure … Directly below, you’ll find the 20 Day Range MA’s for world indices
since the start of June.
Any of these indices can be scalped, it simply depends on risk tolerance, spread
conditions, and what you feel comfortable trading, especially if you live outside
the “U.S. of China”, cuz your choices of brokerage houses are substantially
higher than those stuck in the financial “police state” of ‘Murica.
I literally feel like the Jack Nicholson pic from “The Shining” when I’m looking at
anything in FX … then out of nowhere and at any time, an explosion UP / DOWN
that only lasts briefly before dying … the algorithm can’t capture this, nothing
can, and you’re reduced to either buying rallies or selling breaks, where one day
Cable has a range of 140+ PIPS and the next it’s 55 PIPS … what manipulated
bullshit … I’m not saying “Stock Bellies” never go dead, but what I am saying
is it doesn’t happen very often, and for sure nothing like what we see on a
continuing basis of frustration in FX … screw that, it’s on to the DOW30 and I’ll
deal with the slippage issues if they arise.
Onto the week, bring it on! … outta here … “the future looks so bright, I need
sunglasses”! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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