THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT

“This is gonna end very badly, and there will be blood!”

Four most dangerous words in any language … and no matter how you say it,

the result is gonna be the same … blood, lots and lots of spec blood … so last

night, the “Chuckleheads” in Asia went full retard and couldn’t get enough gold

… never mind that we’re up 15 out of the last 17 days … never mind that stops

got blown out on their watch … “yup, sure … this time it’s different”! … and I

got some beachfront property in Kansas I’d love to show you.

So here we are, coming into New York again with a daily range blown out to

about $17, and now that 1350 has been taken out, the question is can it stay

above 1350 on a Friday? … more importantly though, is that every last

“Chucklehead” with a checking account is now long gold … with the FED on

Wednesday, and then the G20 summit next weekend, the atmosphere for

disappointment is off the charts. Looking at the monthly charts, now that we’ve

passed the mini summit of 1350 is 1365 and then 1375 … if those give way, it’s

off to the races … but until then, the risks here for a very extended [on a short

term trading basis] long positioned market are very high … there aren’t any

participation ribbons for trading, and recent long position holders run the very

real risk of news of any kind getting their sell stops blown out to the downside in

a very brutal fashion … don’t get me wrong, I’m as bullish as anybody on gold

over the long term, but I know how trading works, and so far there has been

ZERO give & take in this market over the last 17 trading days … and when you

throw in scumbag bullion dealer bank behavior into the mix, it gets very lethal

when shit gets frothy … and we are at peak frothy right now in the very short

term. From where we’re at right now, any disappointment on the news or

technical fronts will bring forth buckets of spec blood, cuz an awful lot of

expectations for higher price is baked into the short term bullish cake

… and no,this time ain’t different!

Well, looks like retail sales took the wind out of the sails of gold … and coming in

with a $17 range before the sun is even up, that means New York is a complete

bust as a trading day … only a new high or new low will trigger buy signals, and

here at Noon EST we got neither … and if you look at the day so far, it’s been a

disaster trade wise, cuz all you got is the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] running

stops and inducing panic, all inside a rather small range given the circumstances

of overnight action. “Yup, it sucks, but whaddaya gonna do, cuz there’s almost

zero follow through to these tiny rallies and breaks [so far]”? So, if you pull the

trigger and trade it, again you’re looking at risking $300 to make $20, cuz when it

turns it’s vicious. In the last 5 hours, after the retail sales report

“Thelma & Louise”, all we have seen is a few bucks up, then a few bucks down,

rinse & repeat. This is what you get when overnight comes in with a range of

$10+ range … it’s what it is, and to deny it, is to lose money.

And “Oh boy”!, trouble is brewing in the yellow rock … here at 1 PM EST, SHTF

to the downside, as somebody puked from earlier, and Bigno, Bango, BOOM!,

gold goes down $5 inside of 3 minutes … I fear, there could be more to go, and

yup a new low for the day, now on the books … what we got here on the daily

candlestick is a gigantic reversal at the top, if it holds and stays down here

… and after 15 out of 17 days higher, nothing looks uglier than this if you're

positioned long going into the weekend … and once again the banks skim the

shit out of specs … Gee, who could have ever seen this coming? … “I hate to

wake you Mrs. Wantanabe, but your banker is on the phone and needs to talk

with you … he says it’s urgent”!

From my perspective, though, this break does us little good, since it’s coming in

the afternoon on a Friday … “just where ya goin’ with those longs Skippy, with

no time on the clock and the weekend winding down? … and that’s a very big

problem. Well, next week is gonna be interesting to say the least, huh?

The last thing I’ll point out today, is that the entire run up in gold past the first 3

days at the start, has almost been entirely Asia & early Europe buying … selling

has only really come in the New York session, and today sees the banks clean

up … and suddenly, we’re back in the 1330’s again … since I came in around

6 AM EST this morning, there have only been 3 very brief segments of time

where the gold algorithm was in buy mode … 2 were looking to buy and one was

neutral but could buy under the right circumstances … those 2 lasted about 15

minutes each before turning negative, but gave no buy signals, even if I ignored

the $10+ range rule we have … in other words, crap trading and flashing danger

signals when everything looked “A-OK” … the banks win again.

Trust me, I abhor sitting here when markets are flying … but I abhor losing

money more, and putting myself in situations where reward / risk literally sucks

and makes no sense … and that describes the entire week really … every day

something flashing “danger Will Robinson, danger!”, and the algorithm backing

away. This isn’t an “80/10/10” market [80% up, 10% sideways, & 10% down], this

is gold … and gold has its own set of peculiarities to deal with … top on the list,

the relationship between the “Chuckleheads” in Asia & early Europe and New

York … now today, you get to see it up close and personal and get to see people

destroyed by market greed and basically going full “FOMO” [Fear of Missing Out]

off the charts … “what, you somehow think banks don’t read or look at charts”?

The PAMM will get off the sidelines when probabilities are in our favor … next

week looks to be very promising … blog update on Sunday … until then mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas