“The only place to get good, solid NFP analysis!”
I’m not sure the trading world knows anything right now … outside of “well,
it could go up or it could go down”, if you scan the MT4 and look for clues,
your answer can be summed up with the pic above. Which, of course, is
perfect for an NFP Friday, where the world can go hyper for 20 minutes,
before everyone realizes yet again how downright stupid these days can be.
FX, specifically EURUSD, is getting its daily dose of MOAB’s [Mother Of All
Bombs] thrown at it, where for the last 6 weeks we’ve been in 5 bull markets
and 4 bear markets … each lasting about 24 - 48 hours, before somebody rips
the market a “new one” and the blood level in the street reaches neck deep.
And so, here we are again on a Friday that will undoubtedly only add to the
confusion in the market going forward … cuz even if the NFP numbers are
robust, or a flop, we got weekend position squaring and support/resistance
levels that appear to be very strong. At some point, sure, somethings gotta give
… that isn’t the important question … what matters is, “will you be here with
any money in your account before the next solid trend develops”? … and I don’t
think that question gets answered today … could be wrong, we’ll see … but if
the market’s job is to make as many people as possible lose money, in the
shortest time possible, NFP Friday is the perfect solution.
Yesterday, I thought today would see my directional bull/bear indicator from
“The Teacup Handle Turn” go bearish in EURUSD [plum line (13 EMA
HIGH) under yellow line (23 EMA HIGH)], but the fact is plum is ever so
slightly still above yellow … a move lower today via the NFP numbers will, I
think, make the bearish case … in any event, it’s a distinction without a
difference, cuz in reality right now EURUSD can go either way, and after
yesterday’s “monkey hammering”, the bears are in control for now, pre NFP
… that doesn’t mean they will stay in control, though. Having said that,
though, right now before the release of the numbers, it doesn’t mean anything,
cuz all hell is gonna break loose at 8:30 EST … up, down or both are all in the
cards as I write here hours before the release. “Really nothing different from
all the other idiotic NFP days over the years … just something we all have to live
with and endure, cuz we can’t escape it”.
“Well, nothing like cleaning out the order books at the scumbag LP banks faster
than misses all around … jobs blow out with a huge upside miss, and hourly
earnings blow out with a huge miss on the downside … natch, both longs and
shorts get cleaned out in the ensuing 10 - 15 minutes after the report, and when
the dust settles and the bodies safely removed, EURUSD sits around the
1.22800-ish level … now what”? Cuz from where I’m sittin’, all I see is
complete confusion in the market … who’s gonna win today’s battle, or do
both sides “catch it” and walk away 4 hours from now completely bloodied?
“Well, that escalated to the upside quickly, didn’t it”? And in case you didn’t
notice, both the SP500 and EURUSD bottomed almost exactly at the same
time, as the BTFD crew in stock indices are spinning the “Goldilocks”
scenario … meanwhile 10 YR. yields on Treasuries are a tad “soft” with the
earnings miss … and away we go to the upside in EURUSD.
And as we sit slightly above the 50% retracement line at 1.22960 area, for
about an hour, with several attempts to take EURUSD back down getting
“stuffed” quickly, you should note that this is not the scenario for lower price
… this is a “red flag” of warning.
In previous blog posts I have discussed what I called trading “strange
attractors” … these are the day’s high & low, and when ranges are relatively
tight early in the day, a move that gets close to either is gonna find that
extreme most likely gets taken out … like metal iron shavings to a magnet,
traders stuck on the other side know what is coming next, and their actions
actually defeat what they want to happen … so, when we start getting close to
the high, expect shorts to panic and drive price through the old high and set a
new high … and just like in the real world of fluid dynamics, in trading it
doesn’t matter what the “input variables” [i.e. chart formations] are or where
they came from or how they got there … pick any formation you want … fact
is, they are there, and that extreme has a very high probability of getting taken
out … it’s “situational awareness” 101!
Only one trade today … PAMM up a couple bucks just shy of 0.2%.
While the market was sitting above the 50% retracement line, the only thing
holding me back from getting long was the small range of 30-something PIPS.
A few PIPS either way changes the “dynamic” of the trade and the emotional
state of people caught on the wrong side, and what looks good one second can
completely change the next second cuz of the nature of the very tight range
… I don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of one of the “strange
attractors”, as it pulls traders to do and make trades they don’t want to do for
fear of greater loss if they don’t … “thanks, I don’t need that company”! Simply
put, this is my reasoning why I am not long … the probabilities of being wrong
with a greater loss than I wish to control is simply not there in my favor
… again, it’s about risk, not profit … any chimp can manage a winner, but very
few people really understand the risk of a trade from many different angles
that make up the probability of success in a trade.
But as the market moves up past 1.23137, the panic high on the NFP report,
very quickly the high of the day put in during the Asian session comes into play
as the “strange attractor magnet is turned on” and the shorts go apoplectic in
their haste to cover, thus shoving price through buy stops, where I liquidate on
that spike up. Yea, it went a tad higher … so what? … you have to learn to
liquidate on the spikes to 1) get a great fill, and 2) take advantage of price
“gamma” while it’s still “hot” … if you snooze, you lose that edge in terms of
fill and price momentum.
Here’s the thing, though, and you need to learn, love, & live this: “this isn’t
rocket science or brain surgery, but few people can do it … why? … simply put,
it’s “learned behavior”, and it is NOT intuitive to non-experienced traders or
people you know in your life, either personally or at work … YOU HAVE TO
TRAIN YOURSELF TO DO THIS, and then not care what happens next, and
very, very few people can do this cuz they are always fighting their guts … which,
at crunch time, tell them to stay in cuz there’s more “easy money” coming in the
next seconds … in fact, your guts betray you, and the “easy money” is the spike
itself, not the signal you think intuitively it is … you have to be cognizant of the
“trading process”, and look for these spikes, and when you get them, you pounce
on them like a lion on a gazelle with 2 broken legs hopping around the grass
… no thinking, just an instinct you’ve trained for and are now taking advantage
in your profit direction”. I would also add, that when you get the spike, you let it
“run” until it appears to run out of gas … as long as it keeps going up and
you’re long, what’s the problem? … but as it either 1) loses upside momentum,
or 2) shows the next M1 going red [down], you’ve got to hit the liquidate button
right now … any delay will cost you, and you can’t wait; and the dirty little
secret is, the bigger your volume sizes in EURUSD, the more important this
becomes … try getting out of 20 million stuff after it’s turned around and
heading lower … you think the scumbag LP is gonna show you any “love” on
that fill? … “sure, good luck with that”!
I will also point out, especially today cuz early on after the NFP report
EURUSD looked like “death on a stick” for any trade going forward, that
patience & discipline again come to the fore … sooner or later the market
“tips its hand”, but you have to wait for a proper “setup” to get the high
probability trade you’re looking for and want to make … you can’t just sit
there and say, “I think …” and then go do “stupid shit” that ruins your day
cuz you had a hunch.
Given the nature of the misses in the NFP report, and the general level of
confusion in the market at present, getting the day’s range over the 60’s +
PIP area was today’s sole reason for profit … the fact that the market had
shorts trapped once price was over 1.23130 and the day’s high was around
1.23210, a mere 8 PIPS away, led to the extended range and allowed us to
capture profit … again, not rocket science, simply “situational awareness”. It
would be nice to see EURUSD have a better range today, but it is what it is
… Europe is now closed for the day and we’re in the New York afternoon … I
don’t expect anything to happen here except position squaring for the
weekend, that could take EURUSD up/down a few PIPS, but for the most part
the day is over … you make a trade in this and it goes against you, I have no
idea how you make it back that makes any common sense.
Again today, we see FX do what FX does best … and that is, to get you
thinking one way, while the market rockets the other way, and thereby doing
what the market’s job is; which is, “getting small money to bite and do what
big money wants them to do, without them even realizing they’re being “played”
like a violin”. Money transfer having been successfully completed with today’s
rally, it’s “mission accomplished” … “hey, let’s do this again on Monday, OK”?
Once you understand how the game is played, and what you need to do to
prosper, it becomes a function of simply execution … no thinking, no nada, just
do what you’re supposed to do, when you’re supposed to do it.
I’m not gonna have the new PDF “aggressive scalper” tutorial ready by the end
of this weekend … I’m not happy with some of the text I’ve written, and it needs
a rewrite … depending on how that goes, more than likely it will be done by
next weekend … just wanted everybody to know, so you aren’t looking for it on
Sunday night. Another profitable day, and we simply move forward adding
equity … I’ll pick it up again Sunday night and be back here on Monday
… until then mi amigos … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Have a great weekend everybody!
-vegas
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OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
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