EVERYTHING & THEN NOTHING

“That exact moment when you know it’s gonna be a very long day indeed!”

I knew 5 seconds after I turned my computer on, that something didn’t smell right; any time you get Asia leading the move higher/lower in Cable, while Yen does “zip, nada, zilch, & zero”, you should know somebody is getting played. Cuz the vast majority of the time, it doesn’t work this way.

Still, politics is a hard trade, simply cuz you don’t know the depth of the real problem; is it better or worse than what’s being reported, and how is “big money” gonna play this out. The problem for Cable is that Theresa May’s problems go way back, and it’s a recurring source of Cable bearishness in the market … only so many times you go to the well for water, and when you never bring any back, it’s a problem. And really, for goodness sakes, what the hell is wrong with USDJPY … a 47 PIP range? Seriously, that’s it?

And so once again, shorts got led down the bearish Cable path, only to be blistered again down in the mid-upper 1.3060’s – 1.3090’s, and forced to cover higher. All this made for a wonderful “Flying Wedge of Death” for GBPJPY from the European open; if you got caught short in that 2 hour blitz higher off the lows, no way to make it back the rest of the day. That’s why the FWD is so dangerous to traders; you can’t make it back.

Only one trade today, and I must say, I got a great fill on the entry and the liquidation, that I doubt seriously would have come close in GBPUSD. As it was, I really was looking for a break below 1.3060 in Cable and the stops below 57. Never happened of course, and the “snap back” rally took us out with a minimal gain … better than a loss in Cable for sure … soon after, the 121 & 183 EMA’S turned flat, the market died for a couple of hours, and then headed higher. Around the 16:00 hour [server time], there were a couple of buy signals that would have produced some profit; I chose to pass on ‘em, and instead focus on tomorrow’s big inflation data day that starts early with GBP, and then later at 8:30 in the U.S. Tomorrow should set up nicely for us, and instead of playing the FWD, I’d rather have the majority of the day with news behind us, instead of in front of us. In my mind, that’s why today didn’t do much once the 50% retracement level was broken at 148.65 on the way back up … yes, there was a little price gain, but the move will be tomorrow, not today.

One thought to leave you with today: any time the market struggles after making a new low [high] to go lower [higher], it’s always a warning flag for a sharp bounce [break] … we saw that today, when consecutive lows couldn’t keep the market lower in price.

Short post day … tomorrow will see a more detailed post for you. PAMM spreadsheet below.

Have a great day everybody! Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

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