“Congressional leaders huddle to discuss
today’s health care vote.”
All it takes is a few choice words from a Pol, and
seconds later … of course, after the close and into the wee hours of New
Zealand, after FB disappoints and the shorts are all nice and smug from their
higher sells earlier in the day, while longs having been brutalized all day
with quick vicious down spikes are wondering what’s next … well, we don’t have
to worry about that now do we, cuz here comes the House Repubs announcing a
floor vote tomorrow [today] on the repeal of ChalkyCare … never mind it doesn’t
have a prayer in the Senate; nope forget that … all it takes is the House vote
and boom! … we’re 40 higher back at yesterday’s high before you know it, and
after a brief interlude for a nightcap, let’s tack on another 30 or so points
for good measure… “Now your talkin’
squeeeeeeeeze” … and you wonder why people are going insane?
Certainly the shorts are, cuz as I’ve told you before,
it takes literally nothing to get the Dow30 to rally on “hopium” of any kind,
and when it doesn’t come back a lot of people lose an awful lot of money and
can’t figure out why. So here we are in the early morning A.M., hours before the
New York open
and we’re about 65-70 higher in the Dow30 from yesterday’s NY close on “Hopium”
that the idiots in the House can pass a health care bill [“Yes, this time we mean it”!] today … meanwhile, FB disappoints on
earnings, but who cares? … according to the clueless Twits at the FED,
everything is “transitory” so no worries; now move along Sheeple & STFU Ok?
… Just as a reminder, “Oceania
has always been at war with Eastasia, and chocolate production is at an
all-time high”!
If there were actual pits to come into today, I can
tell you the wailing & gnashing of teeth would be intense this morning;
shorts groaning from the obvious, but longs equally pissed off none of this
“phantom rally” has taken place during normal trading hours; “again, like the multitude of days before,
everything happens overnight in very thin volume and no liquidity; either it’s
Sunday opens cuz “France saved the world” [utter BS], or it’s melt ups in the
“wee hours” when nobody is paying attention”. And so, like so many days before we get to
open modestly higher on literally nothing but bad news and “hopium”, only today
we get to slug it out from higher levels still, the only question being can the
SP500 blast through the 2400 – 2402 level and set off the rally fireworks from
the Hedgies who are short gamma. In a normal world, absolutely none of this
makes any sense … we left that space a long time ago.
And as if all of this isn’t enough to have to deal
with on a day-to-day basis, we also have to claw & fight the scumbag LP
banks on the MT4, where no matter the market, they are armed, ready, and
totally willing to screw you for a Dollar, with off the market fills whenever
you feel like participating. “Nothing
pisses me off more than slippage; and yes, I’d like some cheese with my whine”!
I’m reading last night the latest policy statement
from the FED, and I have to ask, “what
universe of delusion are these people living in, and what “Kool_Aid” are they
slipping the financial press that makes them so willing and eager to perpetuate
the lies and deceit of this bunch of fools”? And I can’t help but wonder if
this whole charade of raising rates in a “falling down” economy [“Rest assured we are data dependent in our
analysis”!] is the exact same replay of 1999 when Greenspan raised rates to
purposely kill the Nasdaq bubble;
only now it isn’t only Nasdaq, it’s the whole enchilada; and seriously, if you
think you can “massage & engineer” a soft landing with this, you need
professional help in a bad way. There are trillions more in equity assets and
the bubble is 10X higher in magnitude; other than that, “Everything is F-ing Awesome BABY”!, just ask them and they’ll tell
you.
Turning to today’s market … another day, more bad
economic news but hey don’t worry cuz 1) health care vote in the House, 2)
everything is “transitional” [thank you clueless Fed Twits], 3) “hopium” is in
the air, just ask Nasdaq stocks, and 4) “everything
is F-ing Awesome BABY”! Been this way for 35 years, why change now?
An hour into this mess, and it’s straight down from
the open to right back where we were at yesterday’s close … “hey, all of you who got hosed by our
nighttime activities; yea, sorry about that, nothing personal you understand …
but we did sell it down again for you.” And I’m betting the same funds who
shoved it up last night and forced the buy stops into action were the same
people who sold it down before and at the open … and now we sit right square
where we were 24 hours ago. Outside of a couple of days, since the middle of
March, nothing but fast moves down and then fast moves up, rinse & repeat
and where are we exactly? How about right where it started?
And yet again today, the Dow30 is much weaker than the
SP500; while the SP500 pops off of it’s low the Dow30 shrugs and puts in a very
weak rally of a few points, but nothing on par that should have been seen; so
what happens when the SP500 decides to break again? If you’re long the Dow30
your sell stop will tell you. And as I write, a new low in the Dow30 by a tick
or two … thanks for the stop hunt; just a 20 point rip up after the fills are
figured out… meanwhile the SP500 sits and most likely laughs at its cousin; the
SP500 in a 3 - 4 index point range and not doing Mr. Jack Squat.
An hour and a half into this and trading activity has
simply died … quite frankly I have no clue where this stuff is headed cuz there
is literally no trading activity I can read to give me a clue … after the stop
hunt it’s simply crickets … as I write,
the last M1 had a 2 point range; “oh yea, that’s meaningful and tells me what
exactly”?... the last 8 M1’s show a range of 4 points; again, I don’t have
a clue what it means. But, unless somebody first lights a fire under the SP500
and gets it through 2400, there is real danger to the downside due to
complacency in the market as read by the VIX. For sure, I’m not gonna be that
first pioneer to step out and start selling the indices; most of those scouting
parties got nothing but dead bodies in them. At some point, though, sooner or
later volatility is set to explode, and when it does those moves down will be
eye watering to say the least.
Here at midday, stops on the downside getting cleaned
out; frustratingly, no M1 buy signal at the bottom [again … this is really
pissing me off truth be known … every leg down today produced nothing for algo signals] … crude
oil is getting crushed lower as rumors float around of China liquidation of
everything in the commodity space due to very weak demand. Again, the SP500
finds support at 2382 – 2385 to save the day … wondering how long this can
last, cuz if 2380 gives way and stays below, it has the potential to get ugly …
real ugly.
Twenty minutes later and it’s welcome to the short squeeze
… this is exactly why I don’t like to be short very often … if you're short, you
have no idea how far to let it go against you before it changes the mindset of
traders that the low has been put in … now you’re like chasing a butterfly in a
prairie field trying to catch it before it goes higher still causing more pain.
“And just when you think the index is in
trouble, it’s you who are in trouble if you’re short … the panic up is intense
and painful”. In the SP500, it’s a 5 index point move up straight up with
nary a downtick to be seen; in the Dow30 it’s straight up off the low 70 points
in 35 minutes and counting. This is your life if you want to be constantly
short.
Ok, wasn’t that fun? First the melt down on china
related commodity selling, and then immediately melt up as fast on … “hey, it’s stocks, they go up … that’s what
they do” … who knows. With tomorrow’s NFP BS, somebody please tell me what
the order books look like cuz today they got wiped out on both sides; both
shorts and longs then shorts again just to make it special; so where’s the
action going to come from tomorrow?
Today was a milestone day; not in the sense that you
know of, but that’s why I’m going to tell you now. Starting tomorrow, I’m going
to be trading the Dow30 starting with a “macro” theme; namely it goes up 80% of
the time so natch I want to be long most of the time. First and foremost, is
the New York open where I draw my aqua line; the “macro” theme is to buy any
and all breaks above the line, and when the market is below the line to choose
the 2nd & 3rd low moves, and any other lows below
-150 points that may come up. If the market moves below -200, I won’t be
attempting to “pick the bottom”. The “micro” play is the M1; when below the
aqua line, “any” turns at the bottom [2nd & 3rd]
after a lengthy down move as the next M1 goes green is going to find me getting
long; if it’s a “classic” signal from the manual … great … but I have been
missing way too many profitable lows for trades waiting for a signal. I’m just
giving up way too much money to the market. When above the aqua line, on
corrections the “tea cup” handle turn will get me long as well.
In both scenarios, I keep in mind what the range for
the day is and where it is most likely going; that becomes a factor in staying long
above the aqua line. I’ll still be looking to sell large spikes up, and SDEV
hits will automatically see me liquidate.
I’ve been concentrating about a month now in the
Dow30, and in that time there have only been 3 days where the market has stayed
above the open and gone higher [not counting the French election melt up
debacle and the quasi-Easter Monday Holiday]; April 4th, 6th,
and 20th ; every other day has been down. Remember what it is I’m
doing in the PAMM; I’m basically an ETF that has all of the upside in the Dow30
with none of the overnight risk and very little or zero downside risk on down
days; to that end, no matter your investment style, over time I will absolutely
crush the averages and their benchmark returns.
Yes, when I was on the floor I used the older version
of the floor trading algorithm; but I also used the same “macro” theme I’m
going to do now in the Dow30. If we want good to great fills, and if we want
the best prices for long positions, then I simply must be able to do what Sokyu
Honma advised his students over 250 years ago in Japan to do; namely, attempt to buy the low and attempt to sell
the high. We may not always be successful, but over time it is the only way to
achieve great pricing on buys and sells. Sounds good to me, and to that end
I did do this today in “the Mrs.” account and hit those bottoms in the Dow30 …
starting tomorrow I’ll be hitting them for the PAMM. The key is to ignore the
first low under the aqua line if the market goes there; that low is either
going to be a reversal point to higher prices, or there are more lows in the
day ahead. Either way it is most advantageous to skip this low cuz it carries
the highest risk.
This was a “screwed up” day from start to finish; it
started last night and continued today with Pols driving pretty much all the
action … “will they pass it, won’t they
pass it”? … and on and on it goes, with both longs and shorts getting crushed
before the day is over. Look for higher trade volumes and more trades
starting tomorrow as I implement the “macro/micro” theme into the volatility
algorithm.
Half hour to the close, and if today teaches you
anything it should be this; when the market is lower on the day from the New
York open [my aqua horizontal line], it is absolutely imperative to be buying
only at the low for the day OR a
correction waterfall low on a break from a rally; you absolutely can’t buy the
rally. It will spend 20 minutes going up 25 points and take 30 seconds to lose
30; that’s what happens below the aqua line.
Tomorrow sees the NFP at 8:30, and we’ll see what
affect it has on the market; my guess is not much after the roller coaster
rides the last 2 days of up/down alternating 150 point moves. Looking at the
daily candlestick of the Dow30, directly below, take away the big spike days
and you got spaghetti thrown up against the wall, with all kinds of “tails” all
over the place both red [down] and green [up]. Is it any wonder a ton of hedge
funds are going out of business left & right? Take away the “hijinks” of
last night into the close [8 PM], and the subsequent melt down into the open
today, and what you are looking at is the 6th day in a row of
“dojiville” in the Dow30; outside of Christmas Holiday time and the time
running up to the election in November, I can’t recall lately [years] of seeing
anything like this.
Looking over the complete carnage in other markets, it’s
a wonder none of this has affected the Dow30 or the SP500 for more than about
20 minutes; it’s like their immune to anything. “Terrible earnings and guidance going forward? No problem it’s transitory.
Terrible soft and hard economic data? No problem, it’s transitory. China going to
hell in a hand basket? No problem, it doesn’t affect us. Commodities like gold
& oil getting crushed? No problem, I’m in stocks. And the beat goes on’.
As I realized yesterday and test traded today for “the
Mrs.” account [no trades for the PAMM today cuz I used today to test run the “macro”
theme as I’ve know it from long ago; I wanted to make sure my fills and macro
parameters were “spot on” … they were and they worked great. Tomorrow sees the
PAMM do the same thing as I did today], the only way to get great pricing is to be at
the extremes the other way and on the other side of the order box; anything
else the scumbag LP’s look to rip you off and hand out shit fills if they think
they can get away with it. Use the “macro rules” I’ve used forever in the stock
indices, along with the “micro” M1 signals, and sit back and wait for the spike
on the other side. When it’s over you liquidate. “Welcome to the future”.
PAMM/MAM spreadsheet directly below.
Time to hit the beach … I’m outta here … until
tomorrow.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR ‘TURNKEY FOREX’
PAMM/MAM IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION
IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR
JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE
TO SUCCESS”!
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