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Tuesday, May 23, 2017

LOSING MONEY AIN’T NO FUN


“And after yesterday, I’m wondering if this is even a market anymore.”


Another disappointing day yesterday, where 7 minutes after the night session started the Dow30 had a bigger range than the 6 ½ hours preceding it in New York; of course we go lower, and then [on cue straight from Zurich at the European open] the SNB steps in and starts bidding, and “oh my … looky here … the stock indices are going to open higher, right near the high for the day. Gosh, who could have ever seen this coming? When does this stupidity end?”


There simply is no way to “sugarcoat this; the PAMM has not performed well for 3 very big reasons. 1) intraday volatility is at record lows with price action during the New York day absolutely abysmal which I showed yesterday in the SP500 M1 chart, 2) everything is happening overnight either in Asia and/or Europe where liquidity and volume are lowest, 3) the manipulators on the buy side are absolutely not allowing for any downside action [almost zero] unless there is specific negative news … and even then, they simply wait for you to finish selling and start the process over again, and 4) the correlations between the 3 major U.S. indices [Dow30, SP500, & NDX100] are at almost record divergences, meaning there is no follow through in the general market when one or the other starts to move. So, when the SP500 jumps and rallies, doesn’t necessarily mean the Dow30 is going to follow and vice versa.

Without intraday volatility, there is simply no way to judge price action; and while it’s easy to say just hang on until it’s profitable, by doing so you invite disaster because your risk profile has gone exponential, until one day it doesn’t stay quiet and goes big time against you and now you’re staring at horrendous losses that are not at all easy to recover from in a relative sense.

Practically every day, no matter the economic news, sees stocks open and drift higher … only in the political arena do news events even give pause to buying … and like we saw, very briefly with “bear markets” lasting hours, not months or years. And when we do get downside action, it is vicious in nature with sell stops being set off and prices gapping … and then it’s over and you’re left to wonder if it’s over or is there another shoe to drop.

First half hour is over, and whaddaya know … prices can’t hold the higher open … somebody better call Zurich and tell the SNB, cuz this ain’t supposed to happen … prices aren’t allowed to drop remember? Even terrorist attacks now are so “yesterday”; just the reaction Libtard Pols who live behind security fences, have armed guards, and protection wherever they go, want you to have. As our old bud Richie Breslow said on ZH this morning, there is something seriously wrong with the world when everything is a BTFD moment and there is no regard for the people killed or injured. “Of course not Ritchie, we are all “soylent green” for politicians who could care less and couldn’t be more obvious in showing it. Never let a good crisis go to waste Ritchie”.

I fully realize we are stuck in the week before Memorial Day weekend, but this type of market action is simply mind blowing; every frickin’ day is the same … open higher and go higher with any break of 2 M1 candlesticks a “BTFD moment” for anyone and everyone … and outside the “fake news” of America’s 2 biggest rags that President Trump is about to be impeached at any moment, or some other half-baked lie attributed to anonymous sources that he is in fact Hitler … take away the great “bear market” of 2017 that lasted 36 hours in the WaPo & New York Slimes, and every day for what seems like forever is the same … open higher and go higher very, very slowly.

It’s Noon in New York, and it’s just like yesterday … and all the days before it with the same incessant buying no matter the price, no matter the news, no matter nada! Crawl higher we go … 3 steps up & 2 back all frickin’ day …and if you’re long VIX, you have my sympathies, cuz I don’t see anything on the horizon to shake this market up. This is the strangest thing I’ve ever seen in all my years and decades of trading. No trades today, simply because there wasn’t anything to do but get chopped up in signals that don’t mean anything due to the lack of volatility.

But I can tell you how I am handing the Dow30 in the PAMM; I’m only buying breaks, and I absolutely refuse to get long this stuff when it’s going up … if I miss it, I miss it, but I’m not gonna get suckered into a long position, find myself up 1 tick, blink my eyes and see I’m down 15 points in one second. If this stuff wants to legitimately start a “bear market” and go down thousands of points … fine … I’ll be there on the panic on both sides … but the literal shit we face now? … no way Jose, cuz it’s a losing game. And no, going down 15 points in 3 M1’s is not a break. Without a break in price, I’m not getting long, and without a significant break below key technical support that gets the “Put Gamma Shorts” scared shitless and wanting to sell futures in the hedge fund community, there isn’t any way I’m getting short. Sorry, I’m not buying the premise the stock indices can only go higher every day forever, and that we will never see breaks again in price; I’ve heard people say that in the past, and I know what happened to them. “Fries with that order sir”?

Today is a spitting image of yesterday, with no volume, no trend, no trading, price gaps everywhere on the M1’s, and if you get into anything, that 2 point spread looks like the size of the Grand Canyon … no thanks. And now that we are in the last 90 minutes, I could care less if this stuff goes up 10,000 points … go ahead and buy it, you’re gonna do it without me. For 5 hours we’ve been in a 15-20 point range, and now in 2 minutes we go up 20 points to the high … I don’t have a crystal ball, and without price action, how are I or anybody else supposed to get a read on this stuff? So, if it ain’t breaking, I ain’t buying.

Today at approximately 5 P.M. Island Paradise time, I have a phone appointment with a Microsoft Office 365 tech support whiz kid; I can’t figure out why my excel spreadsheet will not allow me to enter data … I’m sure he’ll fix it in about 45 seconds, giggle a little, and mumble under his breath what a dumb ass I am … and he would be right. So, PAMM spreadsheet more than likely will be up later tonight after he gets it fixed or early tomorrow. In any event, it’ll get fixed. Today, another frustrating day of glacial drift with no action whatsoever outside the first minutes of the New York open until 14:49 when the dealers “jacked” the buy stops, filled everybody at the high, and now we are backing off and below the old high.

Simply put folks, I don’t like losing money; mine or anybody else’s. I know how stock indices have traded, and I know that buying breaks is the key to success … all we need now is for the market to cooperate and break some, and not just in the opening few minutes by 10-20 points and then call that the first leg lower. We will get it, we just need to be patient is all. And so, what did we get for today from the market; it opened New York @ 09:30 @ 20949, and after the first little break it was the glacial climb to a new high 4+ hours later with zero breaks in price; here @ 16:00 in New York we close @ 20946 bid – 3 points; big frickin' whoop. EXIT QUESTION FOR THE DAY: “To the 800 LB. gorillas at the SNB; tomorrow, could you just stop bidding on Dow30 tech stocks for an hour so this shit can drop? Cuz really, you guys are starting to piss me off; give it a rest some”!
 

Time for a little beach until the Excel “whiz kid” comes a callin’… the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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