“Simply a tsunami of money.”
Any time you have an imminent event risk, no matter
the type, those piling into a move before
the event takes place, more often times than not are the ones getting
obliterated a very short time later. Late yesterday New
York session into early evening Asia
got somewhat nasty … “well, more like
really ugly as USDJPY rallied 150+ PIPS almost straight up… I warned in
yesterday’s blog post about “lightening hitting twice” if it got above 112.25 …
in reality it wasn’t so much Trump, but 2 other factors at play; 1) hawkish Fed
speakers with the usual mantra of “hikes are on the table for the March
meeting” (“sure they are”), and 2) too many people short below 112 looking
for some kind of “train wreck” from Trump later.
Here an hour before the NY open for stocks, what has
me concerned and cautious is the absolute “euphoria” in U.S. indices at the
open … “I’m not predictin’, I’m just
sayin’! … today, this morning, this is what tops look like when you are
going to get this type of opening sharply higher after spending the entire last
month going straight up … DOW30 up 1,200+ points since Feb. 1! …
Turning to today’s trading … 12 hours since the
European open and a 35 PIP range in USDJPY; everything happened last night …
order books pretty much wiped out on both sides [again] with the wicked action
from yesterday afternoon and evening … 3 trades today, 2 were slightly positive
scratches for the most part on bullish engulfing patterns that went nowhere and
the other trade was a buy “mistake” when I dragged my mouse across my screen to
remove an indicator on a chart and went through the “buy” button in the order
box [“stupid poo poo I know] … so
suddenly, I’m long and don’t want to be and it cost us a couple of bucks …
apologies, it won’t happen again … not that it matters much in the scheme of
things trading wise, cuz nothing happened today except chop, but it’s a mistake
that doesn’t need to be made.
Like I said yesterday, ranges need to be better in
Europe & New York so that I can “position scale”; all it would do in
today’s kind of market is produce scratches cuz there is no follow through.
Coming up here shortly, now that political events are out of the way until the
March Fed meeting in a couple of weeks, trading should resume back to more
normal conditions; when that happens, you’ll see more volume and better trade
results.
Here in early NY afternoon, it looks like we have
another reversal day going in gold, EURJPY, and USDJPY is moving lower also;
gold especially is about as erratic as I’ve ever seen it, with no flow to the
trade at all, but simply “herky jerky” bid/offers tripping up position stops on
a daily basis. And of course, when it reverses and makes a new high by taking
out buy stops, there isn’t anything left to move it higher; such is the state
of the gold market today.
I’m really disappointed in the action today in Europe
& the U.S. session in USDJPY; outside of my mistake [which I’m wondering if
I should go to the pharmacy and ask for an “anti-putz” pill … the Mrs. says get
the whole bottle], the trades I made were good signals, they just didn’t go
anywhere. I expected, with the stock market going bananas and yields rising to
see much, much better action; instead USDJPY traded like it was Christmas Eve,
and the best move of the entire European & U.S. combined day comes 2 hours
from the close. Oy.
Onward & upward, tomorrow is another day; PAMM/MAM
spreadsheet directly below … I’m outta here.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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