“Simply a tsunami of money.”
Any time you have an imminent event risk, no matter the type, those piling into a move before the event takes place, more often times than not are the ones getting obliterated a very short time later. Late yesterday New York session into early evening Asia got somewhat nasty … “well, more like really ugly as USDJPY rallied 150+ PIPS almost straight up… I warned in yesterday’s blog post about “lightening hitting twice” if it got above 112.25 … in reality it wasn’t so much Trump, but 2 other factors at play; 1) hawkish Fed speakers with the usual mantra of “hikes are on the table for the March meeting” (“sure they are”), and 2) too many people short below 112 looking for some kind of “train wreck” from Trump later.
Here an hour before the NY open for stocks, what has me concerned and cautious is the absolute “euphoria” in U.S. indices at the open … “I’m not predictin’, I’m just sayin’! … today, this morning, this is what tops look like when you are going to get this type of opening sharply higher after spending the entire last month going straight up … DOW30 up 1,200+ points since Feb. 1! …
Turning to today’s trading … 12 hours since the European open and a 35 PIP range in USDJPY; everything happened last night … order books pretty much wiped out on both sides [again] with the wicked action from yesterday afternoon and evening … 3 trades today, 2 were slightly positive scratches for the most part on bullish engulfing patterns that went nowhere and the other trade was a buy “mistake” when I dragged my mouse across my screen to remove an indicator on a chart and went through the “buy” button in the order box [“stupid poo poo I know] … so suddenly, I’m long and don’t want to be and it cost us a couple of bucks … apologies, it won’t happen again … not that it matters much in the scheme of things trading wise, cuz nothing happened today except chop, but it’s a mistake that doesn’t need to be made.
Like I said yesterday, ranges need to be better in Europe & New York so that I can “position scale”; all it would do in today’s kind of market is produce scratches cuz there is no follow through. Coming up here shortly, now that political events are out of the way until the March Fed meeting in a couple of weeks, trading should resume back to more normal conditions; when that happens, you’ll see more volume and better trade results.
Here in early NY afternoon, it looks like we have another reversal day going in gold, EURJPY, and USDJPY is moving lower also; gold especially is about as erratic as I’ve ever seen it, with no flow to the trade at all, but simply “herky jerky” bid/offers tripping up position stops on a daily basis. And of course, when it reverses and makes a new high by taking out buy stops, there isn’t anything left to move it higher; such is the state of the gold market today.
I’m really disappointed in the action today in Europe & the U.S. session in USDJPY; outside of my mistake [which I’m wondering if I should go to the pharmacy and ask for an “anti-putz” pill … the Mrs. says get the whole bottle], the trades I made were good signals, they just didn’t go anywhere. I expected, with the stock market going bananas and yields rising to see much, much better action; instead USDJPY traded like it was Christmas Eve, and the best move of the entire European & U.S. combined day comes 2 hours from the close. Oy.
Onward & upward, tomorrow is another day; PAMM/MAM spreadsheet directly below … I’m outta here.
Have a great day everybody!
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