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Wednesday, January 18, 2017

CASUALTIES ARE MOUNTING

“Oh hell yea … more screens = more profits … why didn’t I think of that”?

I’ve been writing for some time, that the nature of trading financial markets is changing … gone is the “give and take, up & down” … replaced by “speed of light” moves that send volatility to bat excrement levels … only to be followed by … crickets … rinse, repeat … “who is left standing in this pile of rubble”?

Absolutely nowhere is the manipulation more blatant and “out in the open” than in present day stock indices; “my oh my, look what has become of the SP500 as a trading market, where intraday volatility has been taken out and shot, much to the delight of the financial elite, central bankers, and mega corporations engaged in massive stock buy back schemes.” And fittingly, outside of a brief spasm of HFT madness every now and then that gets prices moving, traders have suffered significant casualties on both sides of this once great market.

Gold, for its part, has already been shot … sure, market dynamics have started to show some life after the Brexit & the U.S. election massacre, but its going to be a while before retail specs in masse come back. The only thing to do here, more so than any other market, is to make sure you buy right and then sell right; meaning, you have to liquidate longs as the market is rallying and not worry if it keeps going; wait until it rolls over, and it’s an open invitation by the LP for an off the market rotten fill.

Again today, 3 hours into the New York session and I’m looking at about a $3.50 range in gold with the day’s range of about $7 & change; pathetic, and given the market moving ranges we’ve seen the last 2 weeks, some consolidation is expected before the “bullion wall” of sellers shows up and hammers this stuff lower once again.

Not much better in USDJPY, as we move closer to inauguration and the Trump Presidency; market bounced off the top of the Ichimoku cloud formation on the HR1, so after 9 out of the last 10 days being down, it’s not surprising we’ve seen a bounce here. However, it looks to me like the “Trump USD rally” because interest rates have no place to go but up, is over for now.  Two things of note here; 1) the most crowded trade in the world right now is “long USD’s”, and 2) VIX futures shorts are at or very near record levels. Neither of these 2 are bullish for USD longs, and it’s gonna be a climb to get USDJPY back on the upside; something to consider.

No trades today I really want to highlight; everything pretty much “chop” with some small gains on the scalper algorithm to show for the day’s efforts. At least USDJPY has a small enough “net” cost to make some money; everything else looks like a casualty of war. The world is very much waiting to see 2 things; 1) will the inauguration be peaceful, and 2) what does Trump do next week when he is actually President. Answer to these 2 questions and you’ll know where things are headed.

Five hours into this, and I don’t see anything of substance happening one way or the other … I’ll deal with the consequences if I’m wrong. Time for the beach … I’m outta here … until tomorrow.
 

Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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