Well, here we are again today with another “hurry up & wait’, as we all [unless you are insane] wait for ChairSatan Yellen to bless us with her talk with God and announce to the trading minions at 2 P.M. Eastern time her decision on interest rates and subsequent guidance forward into 2017. I don’t know about you, but I am so relieved we got capable stewards running the show. [snark, snark!]
Now that the ECB’s Super Mario [last Thursday] has blessed us all with his recent visit to the “Oracles at Delphi” for insight and advice, scattered some chicken bones about the place to nail the probabilities properly, and most importantly consulted with various ladies of the evening in Greece to confirm that prices have indeed been rising as of late … well, putting it all together means a slight tapering [read tightening] of QE; and that of course means that the FED has the “wink-wink” from Super Mario to do what we all know the Fed is gonna do; raise a quarter and then give the “Goldilocks” scenario in the presser that follows, so the Dow 30 can shoot through 20,000 like a hot knife through soft butter.
Turning to gold, it’s so oversold, no matter what the Fed does it probably rallies over 1170 late today or tomorrow; it’s been awhile since any shorts have been seriously squeezed, and a slightly less hawkish Yellen might be the spark to do that. In my mind [Note from the dog: “Please, don’t go there … Ok?”], the only thing that gets gold to gap lower and take out 1150 is a 50 basis point rate hike and very hawkish talk with multiple rate hikes coming in 2017; something not likely to happen given the fact that if this did happen Trump would be on Twitter blasting them all for attempting to sabotage his plans.
Both USDJPY & gold are in “nosebleed” territory; USDJPY needs to slide [Yen rally] and gold needs to rally to “clean out” shorts. Both are synched to move together into the report. All in all, I don’t expect Yellen & crew to “upset the apple cart”, and in the process piss Trump off into a “Tweet storm”; and that means gold up, Yen up, and stock indices taking off to the upside.
No trades going into this clusterfark of course, but when the dust settles there will be trades galore. Until tomorrow …
Have a great day everybody!
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