SUNDAY UPDATE: THE GOLDEN RULE OF TRADING

“And it ain’t none of us, that’s for sure!!”

Wonder no more why “Stock Bellies” go up / down, putting in all kinds of

reversals in the NYSE session … last week saw a day where we had a

“Quintuple” reversal in the “”Spoos”, something I’ve never seen … so who’s

causing this? … sure as Hell ain’t Ma & Pa from Des Moines trading their

retirement accounts … the amount of money that panics, both FOMO up and

panic selling down is staggering in scope … tens of billions in notional value

at the drop of a hat.

Round up the usual suspects for some 0DTE “fun & games”, only it’s not what

you’ve come to think … it’s not the scumbag Wall Street banks who are the

cause, they are the recipients of the “Con”, and are being forced to do what they

don’t really want to do by very large hedge funds, and maybe the “Plunge

Protection Team” [PPT] run by the FEDS New York desk … and they have tens,

if not hundreds of billions in AUM to back them up and give them plenty of

ammunition.

A big fund comes in and does a very large 0DTE CALL order in the “Spoos” that

expires in 4 - 5 hours … they do a block trade where they BUY 0DTE OTM

[out-of-the money] CALLS … a Vampire Squid trader last week says he saw the

largest 0DTE CALL trade he’s ever seen … according to SPOTGAMMA, a 25,000

CALL ORDER crossed the tape, slightly OTM … whoever did it, paid

approximately $5.5 million in premium … within seconds / minutes the “Spoos”

started rallying cuz the dealer bank(s) that sold the CALLS got delta & gamma

exposure “bigly & yuge” if the “Spoos” rally … and they did … that set off an

avalanche of buying that took the “Spoo” UP some 30 index points, and it took

the calls UP by approximately 500% … did whoever that made this trade then

start to take profits? … NOPE, they didn’t care! … instead, they unleashed a

“Shitstorm Hurricane” of PUT buying, that then took the “Spoos” DOWN 40

index points within an hour or two, to a new low for the day.

To a very large hedge fund, with AUM of billions upon billion under management,

whatever they paid for the premiums on the calls and puts is “Chump change”

… their REAL OBJECTIVE is to delay the selling to end of the day in order to trap

longs / buyers, OR they needed the dealer community to bid “Stonks” higher in

order to get off massive sell orders at higher prices … if you got plenty of billions

under your wings, what’s a few million in premium costs to get that? … let the

scumbag banks sweat the details! … and from what I’m told, whoever did these

options orders let them expire! … the bottom line here is an old one … “just like

scumbag bank LP’s run stops so they can fade them and get the volume they

need from Specs so they can get the best prices and highest liquidity on their

trades, and thus screw the public blind, the cards now get turned on them by very

large hedge funds that do the same thing to the banks who sell them the options

… and since large traders are tuned into places like SPOTGAMMA for analytics in

real time, once other large traders see this come across the tape and onto their

screens, they instinctively know what’s gonna happen next … if it’s CALL

BUYING, there’s gonna be a rally cuz dealers have to stay delta & gamma neutral

going up, and if it’s PUT BUYING dealers have to stay delta & gamma neutral

going down … which means, natch, their philosophy becomes “the Dukes know

something, let’s get in on this!” … and let the “Spoos” avalanche begin in

earnest!

This explains the one-way action straight up, straight down with ZERO

corrective activity, and what it means for markets in “Stock Bellies” is nothing

short of hedge fund manipulation to get the desired result … in other words,

“them with the gold makes the rules!” … and how do we know it’s not the FED

doing this shit? … we don’t!, cuz they’re exactly the same as a large hedge fund

… and wouldn’t that be something if the government is screwing the dealer

community, while at the same time with the other hand demanding their share

of the “skim” for POLS & Apparatchiks!

We don’t see this in FX, although there are times when options become the

“tail that wags the dog”, but it’s few and far between … FX is much bigger, and

the banks have cover from central banks, so the raids almost never make

headlines … although you do have to wonder about YEN activity from day to day

… and it’s why, if FX can exhibit normal VIX, and not die on the vine, you see

decent to excellent up / down activity with corrective activity … meaning of

course, you get more algorithm buy / sell signals no matter which side of the

market your trading.

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.

click on table to enlarge

Onto the week … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of

sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

 

 

MARKETS AS PROPAGANDA TOOLS OF LIARS & CRIMINALS

 

“Go for Government kid… there’s no accountability & no consequences!!”

Only when you view financial markets as tools of corruption & propaganda, does

it make any sense … unlimited streams of bullshit emanating form cable TV, from

the likes of Dummberg, CNBC, and their friends in North Korea, with how great

things are … the important questions NEVER GET ASKED, cuz if they did

whoever asked them would be working as a “Greeter” at WalMart the next day

someplace in Nebraska … and through it all, nothing matters except that the

casino is again open tomorrow, and if you’ll just throw your life savings and

entire wealth at government sponsored propaganda firms like JPM, Vampire

Squid, et al, we in government can keep the game going.

The entire country of the U.S. is one giant Ponzi scheme … any serious look under

the hood of this clunker shows that pretty well … geriatric, Soviet Politburo

leadership from both corrupt as Hell political parties is inescapable … just keep

recycling the money flow through us is all that matters … the national debt is

climbing by TRILLIONS per year … demographically, the “Boomers” are peaking

and births are declining, so where’s the money gonna come from 20+ years from

now? … illegal immigration, drug use, cartels booming, societal immorality,

crime exploding are killing [no pun intended, but if the shoe fits, wear it!] the

middle class and destroying it … did you realize that in 1960, the wealthiest &

most prosperous zip code in the U.S. was Detroit? … the idiots in government,

both Libtard & RINO, have sent Ukraine OVER $100 BILLION IN THE LAST YEAR

… where did it go? … they care more about a fucking border 5,000 miles away

than they do the southern border of the U.S. … but hey, as long as the SP500, the

DOW30, and of course the mighty NDX100 keep showing resilience in the face of

higher interest rates, soaring inflation, and government corruption & ineptitude

at every level, the public keeps throwing money into Wall Street coffers and hoping

& praying it can go higher … what if it doesn’t? … if the propaganda becomes

discredited, then what? … wonder why the MSM along with the financial MSM

always lies? … wonder no more, it’s to protect the propaganda.

More inflation news today from the math whiz kids in government … you know,

the ones who think 2+2 = 22 … the ones who couldn’t get a real job in the private

sector so they migrate to the one place you never have to be right or do anything

productive … that’s government … come 8:30 AM, let’s see how they massage

made up numbers … what a circus shitshow … absolutely nothing based in reality

any longer, just mounds of bullshit from a media that’s completely in the tank for

authoritarianism.

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … imagine what the real inflation number is

at … and after the waterfall, it brings us to the criminal NYSE open, where money

launderers the world over come to find ill gotten gains a home … natch, that

means overnight money flows will come in to buy, and that leads to a feeding of

the Chipmunks at the open, no matter what the news, no matter if the F-ing world

has ended … that was short lived, and again we head lower in “Stock Bellies”, the

NDX100 getting hit the hardest cuz tech wrecks don’t like higher rates … but the

trading action is simply awful … sure, cuz of the inflation reports the day’s range

is OK, but the way the “Spoos” and the DOW30 are trading is simply terrible … this

is just a “grind” … and when price does “pop”, it’s impossible to capture

adequately cuz it happens so fast and usually blows through algorithm buy

signals … the Mrs. & Miss Gimpy finding that out over at SIMPLE FX, where the

buy fills are not very good and are off the market … imagine what they’d be at

Coinexx with me doing 20 - 50 lots volume? … my neck and head would have

already exploded all over the study wall!, and I’d be seeing purple … their

liquidations have been OK, but only cuz they both sell the spike on the way up,

otherwise that would be a disaster on the turn lower … they both can scalp the

“Spoos” at SIMPLE FX cuz a 1 lot volume is 10 * the index, so even small gains

add up quickly … having said that, though quite frankly the trading action in

“Stock Bellies” is horrible … slippage higher than normal, even at reputable

houses like SIMPLE FX … Coinexx would only be worse, even with a higher

spread … 2 ½ hours into the NYSE session and the ranges suck, with already

one reversal, so how many more? … the other day we saw 5! … yesterday saw 3

… and through it all, it can’t even trade properly … the MOMO retail Specs in

these markets have to be getting killed, buying highs and selling lows, looking

for extension of ranges that NEVER COME … throw the 0DTE crowd into the

equation, and they’re constantly getting gamma squeezed and feeling max

pain … this is a very rough trade, made all the more difficult by scumbag LP’s

at houses that condone their behavior … I am NOT liking what I see coming out

of the “Stock Bellies” complex … and it makes me wonder if we aren’t headed

for an extended period of MAX FRUSTRATION in the “Stock Bellies” over the

weeks / months /years straight ahead of us … continued funding [secret or

otherwise] of our “proxy war” with Russia, uncontrolled domestic spending,

and a tapped out consumer, spells STAGFLATION WITH ZERO GROWTH … and

given the utter Idiots & Morons who are in charge of government at the moment

to at least 2025, where are the gains in “Stock Bellies” gonna come from?

… trading action like this for at least the next few years? … OMG, what a

nightmare that would be for anybody in the equities arena … just look at how

fast money has left crude oil and gold!, and it sure as Hell can happen in

“Spoos” as well.

And for those of you who think the answer lies in being short the “Stock Bellies”,

I got news for you … NOPE! … being short comes with all the problems and then

some, not the least of which are the brutal, rip your face off in seconds, rallies

… rallies you end up buying near the top to cover, and then roll over and go

straight down … hang on and HODL, and it grinds higher for 2 hours and bleeds

you to death … quite frankly, the answer lies in better trading conditions, and a

market that trades instead of being dominated by manipulator Wall Street banks

with the FEDS help, that just grinds the shit out of Specs … in the immediate

future, I’m not at all sure we can get it!

We’re into the New York afternoon, and this is just terrible, terrible “Spoos” and

“Stock Bellies” trading action … ranges suck and are small, and of course

reversals are always in play, the more the merrier.

Quite frankly, as I’ve stated, I don’t think we can rely on the “Stock Bellies” to

provide us with decent, CONSISTENT, and overall acceptable trading action /

conditions at Coinexx … if the PAMM were at SIMPLE FX, I’d say it’s possible, but

they don’t have a PAMM program … with crude oil and gold completely D.E.A.D.,

that leaves us few choices in the FX space … and while I’d like to stay away from

YEN denominated crosses if I could, I don’t see how that’s possible in today’s

trading environment … the new BOJ head clown replacing Kuroda, has already

indicated no change in insane monetary policy, so that question mark has been

erased … the fact remains, no other major FX pair has the range the YEN

currently enjoys and is the denominator in crosses like the YEN … and those

that do, aren’t even close to the 20 Day Range MA’s the YEN crosses enjoy … on

the bright side, algorithm buy/sell signals in pairs like GBPJPY have been

outstanding … simply cleaner signals than what’s going on in “Stock Bellies”

… today a good example of that!

Why Coinexx can’t entertain “Stock Bellies” CFD’s like other houses where 1 lot

volumes are 10 * the index, is a mystery to me … quite frankly, their entire CFD

space needs an UPGRADE … this despite the fact that overall, at least on the

VPS, their FX spreads, latency, and fills are exemplary most of the time … night

and day from the bullshit seen in CFD’s … so if I’m trading GBPJPY, this is the

place I want to be cuz I get the very best overall conditions and can do much

heavier volumes cuz it’s FX … I never thought that finding the “right” market to

trade would be as difficult as developing & creating the V2 trading algorithm, but

it’s been a B.I. Itch!

Come Monday, I’ll be up and trading Cable/Yen about an hour or so from the

European open and take it from there … signals have been excellent, and we

should do well in this market … if we get to the New York afternoon and “Stock

Bellies” can show me something, maybe I’ll entertain a trade there, but that

hasn’t happened recently and I don’t see it becoming a reality anytime soon

… even if GBPJPY has a slow day, how can it be any worse than the shit in the

DOW30 or “Spoos” I got now? … if that happens, I’ll just deal with it and move

on … granted, there are no “perfect” markets to trade anymore, so everything on

the board has warts and blemishes … but Cable/Yen does have movement, the

ranges are very good to excellent, the spread is as tight as anywhere at Coinexx,

slippage manageable from what I’ve experienced, and commissions

meaningless … all the things I want from any market are there, so all I need to

do now is concentrate on trading it … and that I’ll do starting Monday.

No trades today … out of “Stock Bellies”, and “Back to the Future” via GBPJPY

[Cable/Yen, a/k/a “The Dragon Trade”] … the “Profit Yacht” is ready to go!

… blog update on Sunday.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

IDIOCY DEFINED

 

“If financial markets were a person!!”

Who’s up for a QUINTUPLE REVERSAL day? … no you say, that can’t and

doesn’t happen? … well, feast your eyes on yesterday’s “Spoos” trading action

where we got just that! … welcome to the casino, where EVERYTHING is

possible.

I realize Japan was closed last night cuz of “Emperor’s Day”, just one of the

hundreds of Holidays enjoyed by the Japanese … but does that mean the entire

world goes with ‘em? … seriously, overnight some of the softest ranges and

trading activity you can ever hope to see … with all that’s going on in the world

today, how can this be? … do people not care anymore or did they simply run

out of money?

I noted yesterday, it doesn’t really matter what you got up on your screen, and

that’s true … when the “Spoos” are quiet, everything is quiet … one of the pairs

I have always been fascinated with is GBPCAD … 1) it’s not the YEN on the

denominator, 2) USDCAD is a North American market, meaning it trades through

the London Fix and goes until the NYSE close at 4 PM EST, and 3) it’s always had

pretty decent and CONSISTENT VIX … not usually too hot nor cold when it comes

to ranges and trading action … the key here, is the total cost to trade it and can

the LP’s give you honest & fair fills … in the past, when Turnkey was around,

getting fair fills was a problem, a big problem … and the spreads were definitely

higher with Turnkey by about 1.5 - 2.0 PIPS … however, since Coinexx has taken

over Turnkey, their spreads are easily below 1 PIP most days … on news of

course, when SHTF they will jack higher, but that happens with everything, not

just FX, and not limited to Coinexx.

Is this “Worldwide Vacation Day” … outside of a little trading in the “Spoos”,

where we’ve just crossed into reversal territory to the downside, nothing else

seems to want to trade at all … FX pairs and crosses simply D.E.A.D. … I’m

watching GBPCAD, and for the last 4+ hours, this cross hasn’t got a 25 PIP range

… what’s going on? … well, outside of nothing! … now a little movement into the

New York afternoon … GBPJPY after hitting a new high for the year a couple of

days ago, is down again, and it’s been a slow walk down the hill ever since

… very tough trading conditions not made any better with Japan being closed.

Over in “Stock Bellies”, a quick feed the Chipmunks at the open [natch], and

also everybody that thinks NVIDIA is gonna take “Stonks” higher … that lasted

about 20 minutes, and since then it’s been a move to new lows, almost straight

down with only very brief rallies … as I stated in previous blogs, I don’t feel

comfortable giving COINEXX volume lots that are necessary to trade the “Spoos”

… I don’t care what they say, we’ll get butchered worse than a fat hog … we can

however trade the DOW30, and that’s what I’m watching … I’d like to see more

range, cuz lately New York session ranges have been awful … the current 20 Day

Range MA for the NY session is over 400 index points, but that is skewed to the

upside by a few big range days [thanks to the FED & CPI], and an awful lot of

shit days … it’s closer to 300 than 400, but no matter, it simply needs more

consistent action minus the nuclear blowups … the spread has been OK, but the

trading action hasn’t … today’s “Trading Ratio” [TR] barely above 3, which is

acceptable [but not ideal], and I’d like to see it somewhat higher above 4

… currently on the daily chart coming into important support around the 32,700

area … if that gives way, it could lead to a very nasty sell off … quite frankly, over

the last few days, I’ve been keeping “powder dry” and not taking the buy signals

in the DOW30 from the algorithm when the Heiken Ashi Smoothed [HAS] has

been pink/red … the gains small, and the red spikes from Hell show up and take it

all away in seconds … pushing the liquidate button on a red spike down in the

DOW30 guarantees a shit fill … how shitty a fill depends on how deep the red

spike, and some of them can get mighty deep … mighty deep! … one thing I

will note, though, is that the HAS does a great job of tracking short term price

behavior … when it’s pink/red, the market has a tough time rallying and stalls

around the pink/red zone of the HAS … likewise, when the HAS is blue, there’s

support and “wind at your back” for rallies on small breaks that turn higher

… when the line is breached and slope color changes, you can get some nasty

m1 moves very quickly.

Right now, U.S. “Stock Bellies” are in the grip of 1) specs being positioned too

long, which leads to selling, 2) lost hope of the Lounge Lizards anytime soon

pausing or pivoting on rates, and 3) somewhat baffling hotter macro economic

numbers that IMHO are pure bullshit … and until this streak lower runs out of

steam on the downside, you got to be very careful in your trading … I will remind

readers, that if you just don’t get whacked in the back “6” of the “88/6/6”

paradigm, you back the ship up to carry away the money … ignore this advice,

and the back “6’ can take months, if not years of gains away faster than Biden’s

brain turning to mush … that’s pretty quick! … historically, what we need to see

is some kind of “capitulation” on the NYSE open, and then prices going higher

into the afternoon and close … so far that’s been completely absent … I don’t

necessarily need to see it before I trade the DOW30, but I would like to see it

happen soon enough to get us out of the back “6” … first, though, we need

better action via conditions, and that starts with CONSISTENT VIX … normal

DOW30 range in the NY session over 450 - 500+, and a TR >4 … no worries, it’ll

be here soon enough!

Meanwhile over in ETHUSD, that market is bedeviled with spikes from Hell that

distort pretty much everything … both up & down it makes no difference … they

come out of nowhere, and have been going nowhere, but if you get caught in any

of them you’re toast … you’ll have to make an enormous additional amount of

trades, AND BE PROFITABLE ON ALL OF ‘EM, just to make up for one trade that

went bat shit crazy [BSC] in seconds or a couple of minutes … and it’s been

happening far too regularly for my taste … again today to the downside by about

$20 - $30 in less than 2 minutes … then goes “Loser Formation” straight

sideways afterwards … this leaves me cold … ICE COLD! … gold & crude oil are

simply dead and at present not worth looking at or bothering with unless you

need losses.

No trades today for the PAMM, but that will change shortly … today was the first

halfway decent day in “Stock Bellies”, and although not ideal, was on the side of

“acceptable” … I have no idea what has caused this shortening of ranges and

dampened VIX … maybe 0DTE options and OPEX, but I doubt it .. given the news

flow, both domestic and foreign, “Stock Bellies” should be exploding with volume

& volatility … and yet, it’s been eerily absent, with only today seeing some pickup

… I don’t think either the “Spoos” or NDX100 is gonna work for us at Coinexx

with the PAMM … 1) I don’t trust them, 2) their CFD sizes are too small, thus

making my order size too large for them to fill fairly and honestly … and I don’t

want to get screwed by these LP thieves on a “big order” [that really isn’t] … the

DOW30 is a different story, and at least so far with Coinexx, my trades have been

OK in terms of fills and latency, and the trade size is normal for the industry at

1 * the index.

Algorithm buy signals in the DOW30 have been excellent, although when ranges

are small and tight profits aren’t nearly the same … you just have to be paranoid

about spikes from Hell and stop runs, and where the spread is … lately [since the

merger with Turnkey], the spread has been a consistent 2 - 3 index points, with

somewhat slow days seeing 2, and more volatile days seeing 3 … hopefully, now

that the DOW30 has broken out of that very tight 3+ week range, we can get back

to normal, and I can resume trading it … the “Profit Yacht” is ready to sail!

… onto tomorrow.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas