YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID

 

“So many people are vying for the honor!”

It would be easy to start with Libtards, especially brain dead ones like “Taliban

Joe”, where anytime he opens his Pie Hole the “gaffe meter” is on alert for new

material … then there are those who pretend to run brokerage houses … I said

only a day or two ago that I didn’t trust Turnkey to keep the then 2 cent spread

in crude oil, and that at the drop of a hat they’ll jack the spread in a heartbeat to

7 or 8 cents, and if you’re unlucky enough to get caught in this “bait & switch”,

there isn’t anything you can do about it except “pay the Piper” when you get out

… and lo & behold, that didn’t take long did it? … BINGO!, BANGO!, BOOM!, and

it’s the “same old, same old” bait & switch bullshit they pull every couple of

months in their CFD’s [most notably oil, but “Stock Bellies” as well], trying to

entice people to come trade “competitive” products the other houses have

day-in-day-out … I have no idea where this latest iteration produced fills in oil

… more than likely 3 cents on either side of the phantom spread, and that

produces Turnkey’s answer to a “competitive” CFD oil product with an effective

spread of 8 cents … you know, while the rest of the world is at 3 cents or a

couple of tenths of a penny lower around 2.7 or 2.8 cents … ah yes, you can’t fix

stupid! … and so here we are, back to square one with these Morons, who can’t

seem to figure out that lower spreads means more business, and higher trading

revenues … OR … you can take the Turnkey approach and jack spreads to the

moon, GET ZERO BUSINESS, and be happy with that … again, you can’t fix

stupid!

It’s FED DAY! … Hooray, the Lounge Lizards take center stage today at 2 PM EST,

and as sure as I’m sitting here, their logic in raising rates into a

recession / depression will astound those past the first grade …  a word of

advice … don’t let any of your kids under the age of 40 listen to Spicoli’s presser,

cuz it could hurt developmental brain growth … just eat the propaganda, OK?

Which brings me to USDJPY, pretending today to give a shit before FED Pie

Holes make mince meat out of “Peter Pan” Kuroda of the BOJ, who desperately

needs Spicoli to cut the BOJ some slack and go “dovish” to halt the landslide of a

depreciating Yen [higher USDJPY] even more … and so, USDJPY going into the

New York session, with an abysmal 41 PIP range [here a few minutes before the

NYSE criminal open], and quite frankly I’m surprised it’s that high … EURUSD not

acting any better, and when you look at these 2 major dollar pairs, on any given

day it’s a case of which horse at the glue factory looks better … then there’s

Cable [GBPUSD], which looks so sick on the daily & weekly candle charts, it could

lead one to wonder what date it hits frickin’ ZERO … there hasn’t been even a

whisper of anything positive in terms of trading action since February, and in

case you haven’t been keeping up, it’s frickin’ MAY! … I’m sure some day things

will turn around [bwahaha, chuckle, snicker!], I’m just not sure which decade.

The case of Cable brings me to the trading algorithm … [best scalper / day

trading algorithm you’re ever gonna get for FREE that actually works!!] … and

while it would be nice if the entire world treated people the same, and you could

trade wherever you wanted to [it’s called financial freedom, a concept lost in the

quasi police state of the “U.S. of China”], it’s simply not a reality … right at the

head of the class, U.S. citizens & residents are given “Leper Status” and shunned

by about 90%+ of the world’s brokerage houses … my point here, though, is to

point out that there are many people who trade many instruments, from FX to gold

& silver, to the DAX40 & FTSE100, to the “Stock Bellies” in the U.S., and do so with

decent and CONSISTENT spreads … they aren’t bound by the utter horseshit fed

by joints like Turnkey … and to those people, I say WELCOME!, cuz the trading

algorithm can be used in any market that doesn’t have EXTREMELY LOW VIX

… of course, the higher the VIX, the greater the algorithm models price behavior

and allows you to capture profit on your trades, and the opposite is also in effect

… the lower the VIX from “normal” [whatever that is anymore], the more “false

positive” trades you’re going to experience … eventually you get to a point of

extremely low VIX, where everything is a ‘coin flip” … in FX, my general

conclusion for pretty much any pair is the 50 PIP level for a daily range … get

under that and the probability of “scumbaggery & fuckery” by scumbag LP

banks via slippage and off market fills becomes greater and more frequent … and

it’s why I place such importance on the 20 Day Range MA each Sunday in the

blog update for selected pairs. 

I don’t have a problem per se with GBPUSD as a trading vehicle … I have a

problem with GBPUSD at Turnkey, where in the past I’ve experienced slippage in

excess of 2 PIPS on fills … most of the time it’s in the slightly over 1 PIP area,

which is bullshit, and when you factor that into the cost equation, it means an

effective spread of about 2.7 - 2.8 PIPS on every trade, which simply sucks and

isn’t competitive within the marketplace … for a scalper, paying approximately

1.5 PIPS MOAR! on every trade is unacceptable, and will rob you blind.

And right along with that is the “Scalping / Day Trading VIX Ratio [SDTVR] I’ve

developed and explain fully in the trading manual, and has been explained briefly

in previous blog posts … we’re looking for ratios above 2.0 or very close to that

as ideal markets for trading … combine the 2, and you know pretty quickly if

you’re in the right pair to achieve optimal profits … get below 1.5 on the ratio, or

heaven forbid below 1.0, and it’s time to say “Adios” to that market … and for the

sake of comparison, lately WTI Crude Oil [with a 3 cent spread, no commissions,

at SIMPLE FX, a NO KYC brokerage house I recommend] has been seeing SDTVR

of > 4+ : 1, with many days over 5+ : 1 … quite frankly, it’s tough to beat that

consistently, and it’s why the Mrs. now trades crude oil, having left BTC cuz of

low VIX, switched to the “Spoos”, and in February switched again to crude oil,

where she has stayed put with glee.

I’m also gonna mention, that “XBTFX” … [ https://xbtfx.io/ ] is another NO KYC

brokerage house I would recommend for traders, if you don’t already have a

house you’re trading at and are happy with, and want to effectively use the

trading algorithm … their effective crude oil cost to trade is 2.0 cent bid/offer

spread + RT commission of $7 per 1 lot, making their total cost right at 2.7 cents

… not much difference in the scheme of things between 2.7 & 3, unless you’re

throwing around some big crude trades, cuz the difference will be pennies … their

gold [XAUUSD] trade looks the best IMHO, coming in around 25 cents OR LOWER 

for total cost, and if you’re interested, their XAUEUR trade IS THE BEST LOWEST

COST I’VE SEEN OUT THERE … again, if you’re interested in that … that’s lower

than SIMPLE FX, and quite a bit lower than Turnkey on a good day, in XAUUSD

… for FX, everybody is pretty much in the same ballpark when looking at “total

cost”, so here you’re splitting hairs … Turnkey loves to quote phantom bullshit

spreads that look great on paper, but the reality is they’re loaded to the gills with

slippage on almost every “Hoover Dam” fill … take that into consideration and

things even out quickly versus other houses … in world “Stock Bellies” indices,

about the same between SIMPLE FX and XBTFX, which are as good as it gets in

terms of LOW COST, and light years ahead of Turnkey, who never saw slippage

they didn’t like, and then sit there with their frickin’ hand out waiting for the

“kickback” from the scumbag bank LP or HFT they shove orders to … for us as

traders, the schematics don’t matter much in FX, cuz it’s all gonna be very

close no matter where you’re at or come Hell or high water … however, it’s

always nice to know the “who & what” you’re dealing with when trading.

The criminal NYSE open just a few minutes away, and once the stealing & money

laundering are over within about half an hour, things will go quiet quickly to FED

Stupidity at 2 PM EST … USDJPY and the other FX pairs just drifting in FX sewage,

with position squaring and most likely some very, very light flows the banks are

screwing via their front running operations with their “unofficial” official offshore

accounts they control, and that’s providing almost all movement at the moment

… cuz no matter what the “deal” is, POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators got to get

their “skim” or SHTF for the banks! … “the “big guy” wants his 10% cut”!

Welp!, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … oh wait, that was crude oil rallying $2 in

80 minutes, giving off 3 buy signals BEFORE THE FED … everything else waiting

for FED D-Day … not oil, cuz the dirty little secret is, you can’t use the CNTRL-P

machine to produce or deliver a barrel of crude oil … so sorry FED manipulators!

FED did as expected in their policy statement, thus throwing the BOJ a brief lifeline

for a slightly higher YEN … no uber hawkishness, but Spicoli’s presser is still

ahead, so don’t discount the fact he puts his foot in his mouth … we’ll see … oil

could care less … and we waited half the week for this shitshow circus crock of

nothingness? … the 10 YR Treasury is barely moving, having yawned at the

whole process … meanwhile, “Stock Bellies” aren’t that impressed either … now

what FED?

Spicoli speaking now at his presser … what a crock of lying shit … how do these

assholes sleep at night? … LIE, LIE, & LIE some more … fucking middle ‘Murica

since 1913! … does anybody actually believe this Elitist Lounge Lizard? … and

there he goes, throwing some “dove bones” to the ECB & the BOJ in his presser

… shorts trapped in EURUSD & longs trapped in USDJPY .. and the banks win

again! … and I for one am not stepping into this end of day horseshit of spec stop

losses … we got a spectacular algorithm buy signal in EURUSD right before it

took off to the upside, but again trading late New York afternoons on news isn’t

something I EVER do … I’ll pick it up in the Asian session and take it from there

… looks to me like EUR might be a better trade tomorrow . . we’ll see … this day

is over.

… outta here  … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

OIL IS TIGHT & GONNA GET TIGHTER

 

“Given the value of crude, I’ll take that as a compliment!”

There isn’t anything on the board that comes close to the volatility and scope of

moves, day-in-day-out like WTI Crude Oil … 4% - 8%+ ranges off the notional

price are commonplace, and if you don’t like the crude price now, wait 20 minutes

and check back cuz it could be ± $2+ per barrel up or down from where it was

… one of the key factors in trading any CFD [oil or otherwise] is the

CONSISTENCY OF THE BID / OFFER SPREAD … and on that score, Turnkey

FAILS MISERABLY … COULD BE 2 OR 3 CENTS FOR a day or two, and suddenly

blink your eyes and it’s 7 cents everyday for the next week … doesn’t matter the

ranges, or the VIX, these aren’t “liquidity providers” [LP’s], they are “market

makers” [MM] trading their own book against Turnkey clients for advantage and

profit … why should anybody pay over and above the going rate to trade

anything? … why indeed!

And while the hoax pandemic cratered crude in the Spring of 2020 to negative

values, the situation today is completely different … 1) infrastructure CAPEX

worldwide is down sharply over the last couple of years, thus delaying potential

oncoming supply, 2) “Taliban Joe” in his infinite stupidity has shut down U.S.

production, 3) sanctions against Russia have failed to curb price rises, as China

& India [to name just 2] step up and buy, and 4) China’s attempts to create

“demand destruction” by locking down huge portions of their population so as

to purchase cheap oil, have failed miserably … in other words, oil is tight and

gonna get a Helluva lot tighter.

I’ve said for like forever, that if crude can keep a stable and consistent spread of

3 cents or better, it’s the market to trade, as it beats hands down anything else

out there, even including most days crypto and Bitcoin [BTC] … and of course,

Turnkey highlights the problem, as nobody knows which days the spread is

decent and which are horrible … industry wide, it’s been a huge problem for a

long time … SIMPLE FX has what I consider the best oil CFD … the Mrs. trades

there and loves it … NO KYC, deposit / withdraw in crypto, and trade either on

their proprietary platform or the MT4.

But, here’s the crux of the matter … you better have a “Hoover Dam” good

algorithm to trade it [scalp and/or day trade] or they will carry your account out

“toes up” … the trading algorithm will be available soon, and you can see for

yourself.

Today nothing more than punishment for anybody expecting to trade anything,

and see it move anywhere … a perfect day for bank “scumbaggery & fuckery” if

there ever was one … both EUR & YEN attempting to act like they’re markets

today, but like most days when trading conditions suck and ranges are tight, it’s

simply a bank manipulation scheme … the countdown to FED stupidity has

officially started.

Meanwhile over in crude, mid morning New York sees a $3+ range today

[SIMPLE FX], and once again crude beats to a different drummer than the

“financialized”, cash settled Ponzi schemes where the CNTRL-P machine means

everything … try producing a barrel of crude with the CNTRL-P machine, and let

me know how it goes … London Fix comes and goes, and with it a merciful

closing death for FX and the tiny ranges for today … VIX just pitiful, but not

surprising the day before the Lounge Lizards go full retard … no trades in

anything today.

… outta here  … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

FEAST OR FAMINE

“Thanks, I’ll stick with famine today!”

And so it goes in the word of FX, as the entire world [except the U.S.] takes the

day off to celebrate Communism & Socialism, the twin Evils directly responsible

for hundreds of millions of deaths in the 20th Century … anything for a day off I

guess … and that means FX is crawling and VIX pitiful … expected this really,

but you never really know.

Not much anybody is gonna glean from today’s sick action, although I will note

the U.S. 10 YR Treasury is up at 2.97%, and a breach of the 3% level to the upside

would be considered somewhat of a big deal from a technical perspective and

could encourage some dollar buying … we’ll see, but I’m doubtful anything can

be maintained before the FED on Wednesday … of note, “Stock Bellies” & gold

looking especially weak, and I got to wonder what the Lounge Lizards will be

thinking if the “Spoos” go sub 4000 before they even get to their first 50 bps rate

hike? … where’s the floor Spicoli? … “everything is in the best of hands isn’t it”?

Past the London Fix now, and when it takes USDJPY 30 - 40+ minutes to go 8 PIPS,

you pretty much know the entire world is at the “Communist Manifesto Barbecue”

somewhere, and that trading has taken a back seat on this quasi Holiday for

malcontents … about the only thing trading is crude oil [almost a $5 range today

ho hum!] … and speaking of which, today sees Turnkey with a 2 cent spread

… what level of “scumbaggery & fuckery” is this? … quite frankly, I don’t trust

the LP’s to maintain this, cuz in my mind it’s a trap … take a position with a 2

cent spread, and watch seconds later the spread at 7 … oh you know, “market

conditions” and all that shit … I DON’T TRUST ‘EM! … let it stay here for a few

days and let’s see, but I will almost guarantee that isn’t gonna happen … OPEC+

meets later this week, so there’s that as well, right along with the FED.

No trades today in anything … outta here before my brain freezes … “The future’s

so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎 … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: INTERNATIONAL PROPAGANDA DAY!

 

“A message for you from the Biden Regime’s Ministry of Disinformation!”

This day should be buried in shame in the dustbin of history … instead, every

year Leftist NutJobs [a/k/a “Libtards”] get more outrageous, bolder, and

downright “looney tunes” … and now comes “Taliban Joe’s” “Disinformation

Governance Board”! … to be run by the Morons who run airports, the DHS

… can’t hardly wait for these Assclowns to make their mark … “Gee, what could

possibly go wrong here”? … directly below, the link at ZH to see which

Psychopaths in the “Swamp” will be playing “Big Brother”.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/people-behind-dhss-orwellian-

disinformation-governance-board

Up to Wednesday at 2 PM EST it could be a slow affair, butt who knows it could

be very active indeed! … play ball and we’ll see.

Directly below the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.

click on table to enlarge

… outta here  … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas