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Friday, May 5, 2023

THE NEXT CRISIS? … COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE [CRE]

 

“That moment when bad real estate loans come home to roost!!”

Another excursion into NFP Idiocy today, as the math whiz kids over at the

Department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales tell us how many bartenders, waiters, &

waitresses Applebee’s & Chili’s hired last month … not that it matters much

when banks are going tapioca faster than Bud Light sales … still, the problem so

far is the simple fact that banks can’t keep up with money market funds … not

even close! … money markets paying close to 5%, and bank CD’s [if you’re

lucky] paying less than 1% … even idiot ‘Murican Sheeple can see with the help

of a Jethro Bodine calculator, that maybe they’re getting screwed over at the

local Boss Hogg family run bank, and should transfer the Hell out … next of

course, on the “Biden Destroys America” agenda will be the collapse of CRE, as

nobody who owns an office building can fill it up, except with vagrants and

illegal immigrants … stuck mostly in downtown areas that are shithole sewers

of DEM Libtard policies for decades, those loans are about to go South in a

major way … now what Spicoli? … Libtard solution? … EASY PEEZEE: a climate

change tax that sends money to Libtard POLS and their pet PAC causes … and

you’re wondering why the country is in deep, deep trouble?


Gold & Bitcoin quiet so far going into the NFP number … although, Bitcoin

going orbital last night at the Asian session open … apparently, Mrs. Watanabe

& Gal Pals went on a Bitcoin buying spree after hitting the Pachinko machines

the night before … sadly, not even the Chuckleheads followed them into the

rabbit hole, knowing that NFP will trump shit later in the day … gold lower on

1) daily chart patterns, and 2) the world didn’t end last night, disappointing many

a long gold position HODL-er.


Bitcoin is a free market … gold is a manipulated market … and although the

alternative trading algorithm works excellently in both, in mapping projected

price behavior, these 2 markets behave vastly different from each other … Bitcoin

is the ultimate “scalping / day trading” market exhibiting all of the characteristics

found in an abnormal psychology textbook … just classic FOMO [Fear of Missing

Out] and PANIC … and that price action is reinforced every single day by price

action that can leave a trader gasping for air if they’re on the wrong side of things

… just remember, “the rat that panics first gets to panic again later!”, and that

beats drowning on a sinking ship any day … and it leads to trader panic quite

easily, with moves that can be taken advantage of for profit … factor in the fact

that IQCENT trades BTCUSDT WITH A 1 PENNY SPREAD AND NO COMMISSIONS,

in a market that most days sees a $1,000+ range, and there is literally nothing on

the planet that can beat [or even come close!] conditions for trading.


I find using Coinexx m1 BTC candlestick charts with algorithm overlay, ALONG

with the m3 candlestick chart on the IQCENT platform very helpful for perspective

… I obviously use the algo to make trades, but the very best & highest probability

of profit trades are made in conjunction with the m3, especially in terms of price

relationship to specific chart patterns … namely 1) flag formations, 2) ascending

and descending wedge patterns, 3) pennant formations, and 4) failed double

bottoms with reversals … you simply go with the flow, and don’t fade the

formation … fading formations in BTC is suicide! … in addition to this, remember

that “Whales” in BTC shove price for profit, thus when they run stops it’s usually

to liquidate first and foremost on the spec volume … running buy stops gets the

highest and largest volume sells, and running sell stops gets the highest and

largest volume buys.


When trading BTC with such superior conditions as we have, don’t let GREED

fog your eyes! … this shit turns on a dime, and although the fills I’ve received

overall in BTC trading with IQCENT have been excellent with very little if any

slippage, when this stuff turns it WILL water your eyes … meaning, if you’re

LONG, liquidate [sell] on the spikes higher when price stalls, and if you’re short

liquidate [buy] on spikes lower when price stalls … for day traders, this is where

the m3 is really helpful, cuz as you will notice in BTC when this shit gets going,

the string of m3’s going higher [or lower if short] can be breathtakingly large in

scope … hundreds of dollars! … rinse / repeat, do this all day and night 24/7/365!


As I told Miss Gimpy, if I was in my 20’s I’d 1) tell “indoctrination Camp” to GFY,

2) I’d sell blood to raise trading money, 3) until I reached a superior lifestyle level

of income and trading capital, I’d eat, sleep, trade until my eyes glazed over,

and/or 4) I’d hit up every wealthy relative I knew down to 10th cousin twice

removed, to see if I could get some help … and to her credit, she chose #1 and #4

… of course, it helps to have personal training, so maybe she’s a little ahead of

the general curve of “wannabe Schelps” that think this is somehow “easy” … it’s

“simple”, it ain’t “easy” … there’s a difference … as a professional trader, you

simply HAVE TO TRADE THE MARKET THAT HAS THE LOWEST COST AND

BEST TRADING CONDITIONS TO MAXIMIZE YOUR INCOME … if you don’t

you’re throwing money out the window of a moving car … it doesn’t matter what

you like or dislike, IT’S ALL NUMBERS ON A FUCKING SCREEN FOR CRYIN’

OUT LOUD!!


AND RIGHT NOW, TODAY, there aren’t trading conditions any better anywhere for

trading than what you’re gonna find @ IQCENT in crypto CFD’s … OK, maybe

BTC is a little rich for your blood … trade Ethereum [ETH] or Doge [DOGE] AND

GET THE SAME SUPERIOR CONDITIONS YOU CAN’T FIND ANYPLACE ELSE! 


Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … another scam bogus number, but it’s

mission accomplished for killing gold … not too many long specs are gonna have

a nice weekend … down goes Frazier! … and of course, after the obligatory

slaughter of longs, comes the Loser Formation of almost straight sideways price

gouging, where bucket shops like Coinexx are quoting 50 cent spreads in gold,

and that’s before guaranteed slippage … meanwhile, BTC trades while gold only

knows one direction … if it won’t trade, spreads are ridiculous, and you know the

LP will rape you with slippage, why would anybody trade this shit? … why?


I don’t feel like the PAMM has any choice in the matter … FX, no matter the

quoted phantom spreads in the dollar pairs, are a VIX nightmare … one day a

range of 150 PIPS, the next below 60 … chop, chop, then it explodes, only to sit

and not do shit for the rest of the day … and let’s face facts, the New York

afternoon is a horrible time to trade FX, with the likes of the scumbag banks on

Wall Street making a market with Europe closed … gold simply a one directional

freight train, with horrendous slippage and exponential risk versus expected

reward … another trading nightmare … I don’t see any choice in the matter but

to go back to the DOW30 with a 2 index point spread and trade that … “Stock

Bellies” have calmed down, and there’s enough uncertainty to send the DOW30

up/down each and every day for some trading … if it gets unruly, I’ll just

sidestep the horseshit until it settles down … oil isn’t an option cuz of

mis-pricing of spreads too often for my comfort … ranges have been cut in half

over the last few months in “Stock Bellies”, so prices are relatively tighter than

before … come Monday I’ll be in the DOW30 … the bullion dealer scumbags

have made gold untradeable for scalpers or short term traders … what a bunch

of thieves … not that I have any illusions about the same Asshats in “Stock

Bellies”, but at least there the market operates and functions in the “88/6/6”

paradigm, which we can take advantage of with halfway decent

trading conditions.


No trades today for the PAMM … gold simply laughable as a trading vehicle

… over in crypto land @ IQCENT, multiple trades in BTC for “The Syndicate”

and we’re UP APPROXIMATELY 0.5% … another grind day … blog update

on Sunday. 


… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 


-vegas



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