More bullshit than you’ll find in the world's biggest stockyard … we start another
Monday with drift & chop, soon to be followed by the “scumbaggery & fuckery”
of the “Stock Bellies”, and those who feel the need to move billions around the
table … and we start the day off with more worthless econ numbers from math
whiz kids over at the Department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales, and that ignites
“Stock Bellies” to the upside, cuz as we all know when the U.S. economy tanks
and goes down the shitter, that’s bullish for “Stonks” cuz that maybe means
interest rates won’t climb any higher … bad news is good news, but more to the
point, any news is good enough to start the chain reaction of the moneyed class
and their addiction to 0DTE OPTIONS and the massive screwing of the retail
Specs, along with dealers who sell OTM puts & calls to large hedge funds
…. The casino is now open, place your roulette bets please! … and with shorts
now fully panicked, and the criminal NYSE open ahead of us, expect a full
throttled, orgasmic assault higher to feed the idiot Chipmunks at the open with
their “buy at the market” orders they place every single fucking day without fail!
… “nice manipulation work if you can get it!”
Meanwhile, GBPJPY can’t even achieve an actionable “Trading Ratio” [TR] above
3 … simply pathetic, but whaddaya gonna do when it doesn’t wanna play?
… EASY Peezee, LEAVE IT THE HELL ALONE … unless something changes here
real quick, it looks like we take the good with the bad in the DOW30 … sure as
Hell ain’t getting anything from FX today, that’s for sure … then I see news
involving Cable, and the old BREXIT horseshit surrounding Northern Ireland
… and folks, I want no part of this shit whatsoever … this guy says this, that guy
says that … POLS & Apparatchiks lining up for some mistress funding at Spec
expense … no way I’m touching anything Cable while this goes on and is part of
the FX narrative, simply cuz it’s trouble with a Capital “T” … therefore, onto the
shitshow circus of the “Stock Bellies”, and from the looks of things here
pre-open, it should be one good circus show over the remaining part of the day
… “don’t forget to redeem your FREE lunch buffet, courtesy of the FED, and
welcome to the casino!”
Not much of a feeding frenzy you can attribute to the Chipmunks, but it appears
somebody lit the fire in “Stock Bellies” about 30 minutes into cash trading … off
to the races straight up … and then when it turns there’s nothing left but
heartache, cuz it doesn’t “trade” anymore, it just lurches between large 0DTE
options expirations that expire in hours … as I laid out yesterday, dealers who sell
this premium got to stay delta & gamma neutral, and poor gas on a lit fire doing
so … and when it’s over, there’s no buying only selling, and most likely a large
put option buy done near the top painted the tape … and so here at NOON EST,
it’s been straight down from the top, with the HAS indicator of the trading
algorithm showing pink/red the entire time [sell mode] … with the 10 YR.
Treasury hanging just below 4%, this isn’t good news for any of the
“Stock Bellies” indices, but especially bad news for the NDX100 … rising interest
rates are never good for tech stocks.
Quite frankly, the M.O. of these large funds who spike price higher right after the
open, is quite obvious … let’s get the potential “buy fuel” out of the way and
force those who either need or want to buy, and force them to act … that buying
along with dealer options bullshit is the perfect scenario for a fund who needs or
wants to sell billions of dollars in stock, but needs the Spec public to buy
alongside the dealer community … it will have the volume and liquidity they need
to get trades off in size without suffering dealer slippage and other bullshit … in
other words, they know what the Hell they’re doing, and they do it early to force
hands into the game … well now what? … we’re in a rising interest rate
environment made worse by the Lounge Lizards at the FED, who are supporting
a lid on stock prices … in other words, a bear market, or if you prefer in the back
“6” of the “88/6/6” paradigm … the pros know rallies that come early will be sold,
and in classic bear market trading action, rallies are vicious and fast, but they
fizzle out quickly and price either walks down the hill or drifts unmercifully
… which is just what they want ‘til next time! … today another perfect example.
Looking at the DOW30 for algorithm trades, we can’t even get the index on the
blue side of the HAS indicator, and even if it does, where’s the strength to take
it higher? … some of the worst and most pathetic rallies you’ll ever see, you’re
witnessing now in “Stock Bellies” … finally, the realization by the trade that the
FED isn’t gonna pause or pivot anytime soon, so outside of short covering, where
does the “buy fuel” come from? … granted, sometimes the short covering is
sufficient to get a decent rally, but it doesn’t make much sense to risk 50 index
points on a red spike down, for a measly gain or MAYBE 10 - 15 index points to
the upside that can take many more minutes to achieve than what it takes to
take it away from you on the downside … “sorry market, you’re gonna need to
do better than that!”
That isn’t to say you can’t scalp the “Spoos” or the NDX100, but you are gonna
have to do it where the house has the CFD at either 10 * the index [SIMPLE FX],
or 100 * the index [CedarFX] … Coinexx at 1 * the index isn’t gonna cut it, simply
cuz trade volume size is gonna lead to horrendous slippage off the market.
Even though this weeks 20 Day Range MA’s show “Stock Bellies” holding their
values, the “Spoos” in particular with today’s action, are looking at 16 days in a
row of price ranges that are under the 20 Day Range MA … 3 big days of over 80+
in the index comes off the average this week, meaning unless something starts
trading this pile of shit, come this Sunday the values are gonna take a big hit
downward … again, classic bear market action, where it’s grind and drift lower
for what seems like forever and then spike viciously higher “el mucho quicko”,
and nothing in between … shorts get killed on the spikes higher, and longs get
bled to death and end up selling near lows … the back “6” is a B.I. Itch to make
money in, and your goal has to be not to get whacked … being long is no easy
task, and being short is no picnic either … and through it all, the scumbag LP’s
are there to make sure they screw us as hard as they can without
getting indicted.
We absolutely need better up/down trading action … being in the DOW30 for 30
minutes so you can make 10 index points is bullshit, especially when we’ve
already seen today numerous m1’s with 40+ index point ranges … and the reason
I’m not trading it is simple … the risk reward STINKS, and the TR’s are barely
above 3, telling me there isn’t anything here anybody wants a part of, except
large funds and the scumbag dealer community … you get caught in one of
these tsunamis where the short term trend changes, and you’re liquidating right
into what hurts you, and trust me, they will hurt you, cuz they don’t have to be
fair and honest and they can fill you anywhere the fuck they want to!
Granted it’s Monday, and for what seems like forever Monday’s have been total
shit when it comes to price action … quite frankly, although it can handle the low
levels of VIX, the v2 trading algorithm isn’t designed for very low VIX trading
environments … the reasons are twofold … 1) volumes will be misleading and
inconsistent, and 2) price gains will be very skimpy while any “false positives”
leading to a loss in a trade will come on a short term trend change and not be
bound by the same conditions as profits … so looking at another day where the
“Spoos” have a 30-ish index point NYSE range, and the DOW30 is barely above
300 index points, but closer to 225 cuz of the price rips, the trading action simply
isn’t here like it should be … like I said, you can get away with it if you’re at a
house that has 10 or 100 times the index for 1 lot volumes, but it isn’t gonna fly
with outfits like COINEXX who are at 1 times the index … without the Northern
Ireland clusterfark, Cable/Yen would have been a disaster today … in addition
FX has month end flows to deal with, which can often be ugly as Hell for price
… gold and crude oil ain’t even in the discussion, as both are “dead money”
markets … those 2 markets are simply total disasters, with much lower ranges,
much lower volumes, but the same high spreads & slippage … yea, what a deal!
I’m more than a little disappointed that BREXIT horseshit has made its way back
into Cable and its crosses … one guys says one thing and 5 minutes later
another Asshat says another … the deal is “good” … oh wait somebody says, no
it isn’t … and on and on this horseshit goes whipsawing Cable like it’s a yo-yo
… for 5+ years we had this kind of horseshit, and I’m not about to “play” now with
this … we’ll see what happens …. on the other hand, I simply may have to
“position scale” “Spoos” trades … in any event, what everybody has to recognize
is the fact that “Stock Bellies” are in a bear market, marked by a FED that is
Hellbent on higher rates, and until the “Spoos” crash and burn to a level that gets
them to panic and either pause or pivot on rates, both the “Spoos” and the
DOW30 got nowhere to go … cuz as long as “Stonks” stay overpriced, the
economy stinks, inflation rages, and we got insane leadership calling the shots,
rates are not gonna come down … the only thing that brings rates down is gonna
be a stock market meltdown … where that is, I dunno, only that it’s the only
scenario that makes any sense … and when Spicoli and the other Lounge
Lizards finally panic and do pause or pivot on rates, let the melt-ups commence!
No trades today for the PAMM … onto tomorrow and hopefully better trading
conditions.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment