We start 2022 with a bankers Holiday in London … you know, cuz they work so
hard stealing money they need another day of rest … or, getting a flight out of
Barbados on a Sunday is a B. I. Itch, and you can’t possibly expect me to be at
“work” the next day can you? … and of course, not like it makes that big a
difference from recent history where the entirety of Europe is a frickin’ joke, so
trading in London is basically comatose … and from the looks of it, as the sun
comes up in New York, nobody here gives a shit either … “Spoos” & crude oil
doing NADA … as I said earlier, this has historical precedence, cuz a lot of years
see the first few days deader than Biden’s brain cells … it’s still very early yet,
so a lot can happen, but so far it’s extremely quiet and uneventful.
About 60 - 90 minutes before the NYSE open, somebody panicked and bought
dollars hand over fist, that saw gold get monkey hammered, crude get mauled,
and “Stock Bellies” tank … perhaps it was more of the same shit economic stats
we keep getting despite the “greatest economy evahhhhh!” [thank you
Jim Cramer, CNBC perma bull hack], but since it’s the first day of the trading
year, there could be a whole host of other reasons as well … but, not to fret, cuz
when “Stock Bellies” open it’s time for corporate buybacks and the “Plunge
Protection Team” [PPT] to save the day after a mauling and lift “Stonks” into
orbit faster than Biden falling down a flight of Air Force One stairs … as I said
in my year end blog posts, 2022 will see more of the same manipulation bullshit
in “Stock Bellies” come hell or high water … didn’t take ‘em long did it?
And 2+ hours later the “Spoos” are a bag of flaming shit, as the yo-yo banks skim
players raw inside a rather tight range … crude oil for its part simply mirroring the
“risk on / risk off” [RORO] battle prior to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting, which
consensus holds will be a “non event” … sure, sure it will … I’m not sure I’d take
that even money bet, given the history of the dictators, thugs, bullies, and other
assorted misfits that make up OPEC … add Vlad & his crew of merry bandits
[that’s where the “+” comes from], and it’s basically no limit liar’s poker at the
MGM Grand on a Saturday night … so, anything can happen tomorrow.
And outside of the lightning moves of RORO that come & go like squirrel farts in
the wind at or near the criminal NYSE open, things have settled down
considerably, and VIX went from bat shit crazy [BSC] to NADA very, very fast
… and my guess is, unless “Stock Bellies” do something dramatic or news
breaks affecting oil, the rest of the day after the London Fix [here in a few minutes]
is gonna be a sleeper for oil, with the usual “bump & grind” red & green spikes to
trap the unwary, but not really moving anywhere … and if that’s the case, it’s a
“doji” day on the daily candlestick chart, which doesn’t help anybody that I
know of when it comes to trading oil … on the other hand, this is oil, and with
daily VIX running hotter than normal, even after a quiet Holiday period that has
seen the 20 Day Range MA drop rather precipitously, it’s still high, and that
means VIX says you have to pay attention … remember, this is very much a
MOMO market, and when momentum starts to roll and pick up steam, this stuff
can go anywhere! … and quite frankly, it’s why we’re now here!
Since the NYSE open, only one algorithm buy signal in WTI Crude Oil
… TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY.
With Europe basically closed today, and with Asia quiet, ranges were for the most
part very tight coming into New York trading in everything … and then we get
straight down, followed by straight up … kill the longs then kill the shorts, why
should 2022 be any different to the manipulators than previous years since they
began manipulating markets in 2015 - 2016? … and it makes for some very
unsettling market environments across asset classes, not the least of which is
crude oil … and to some extent it plays havoc with the trading algorithm, cuz it’s
not designed to capture “V” bottoms or inverted “V” tops LIKE YOU THINK … you
can get that in crypto cuz the VIX is MUCH GREATER and you’ll get tradeable
bounces, but in slower markets like crude you can’t … the bounces in slower
markets in too many instances are not enough of a bounce to make the trade, and
you run the risk of some serious losses fading the MOMO before it’s over and
the turn then comes … today’s trade signal came when the algo was in “scalp”
mode … we’d need to see crude higher on the day and climbing to get
“day trade” status.
Now near NOON EST, crude sees 4 hours straight down and now almost 3 hours
straight up, and just here in the last few minutes has decoupled from mirroring
the SP500 … as I have stated many times on the blog in the past, you do not ever
make trades based on correlations with other markets … nobody sends you an
email when the correlation stops, and those trapped can get into some
real trouble.
Well now, isn’t this special? … a $2+ DOUBLE REVERSAL in crude oil … like I
said, never say “never” when it comes to crude or something it can’t do
… nothing happening in other markets like the “Spoos”, so I can only surmise a
group of big traders got some other group of smaller traders who were short and
squeezed the shit of out ‘em … to the point of driving them into buy stops for
everybody who was short, and the MOMO took over from there … and of course,
after the double reversal high, it’s “lights out” and time to turn tail quickly the
other way … all in the face of an impending OPEC+ meeting tomorrow, which
should have constrained price & VIX today, at least in theory … so much for
theory! … when you’re trapped you’re trapped, and the “deer in the headlights”
approach to losing money by the second trumps theory every single time! … I will
say, though, and this is simply anecdotal evidence gathered over a lifetime of
trading, that double reversals rarely go anywhere after the second leg … there
simply isn’t enough “fuel” in the marketplace for further moves, as the order
book is wiped clean on both the bid and offer side … and so here we are … I’ll
also state, that trading for double reversals is “stupid shit” … they happen when
they happen, but as for trade probability of success day in day out, it’s a low
probability event.
Over in crypto land, I got no clue what the deal is with extremely low ranges &
VIX to start the new year … ETH today simply pitiful, with barely a $100 range
in very choppy trading … best left alone until it picks up … no trades today in
crypto for “The Syndicate”, simply cuz it’s dead.
Heading into the New York afternoon, “Spoos” rather quiet after a blitzkrieg of
up / down near the NYSE open, and crude is holding near its highs for the day
around $76.30-ish … how much more they can squeeze shorts, I don’t know, but
I’d be real careful up here prior to tomorrow … buy signals up here IMHO carry a
far bigger risk than earlier today, and since the NYSE open, oil has not really had
a decent correction to the downside, with simply pennies to show for the effort
… do longs really want to go into the OPEC+ meeting long near the daily highs
for the last several weeks to a month? … you never know with crude, cuz it could
be Vlad & his buds bidding it up for s surprise announcement, and then on higher
price still tomorrow, selling the shit out of it and booking some free money
… why not? … Vlad’s been doing this for decades in commodities, starting with
gold futures back in the 80’s when he was head of the KGB … I wouldn’t put it
past him at all … or, it could be plain & simple short covering going into
the meeting.
And with today’s bullshit start to the year via the Holiday in the U.K. for bankers,
with the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow, the “real” start to the year begins.
So much for the “doji”, huh? … outta here … “The future’s so bright I need
sunglasses”!! 😎… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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