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Monday, October 15, 2018

NO SKIPPY, THIS TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT

“SIGN #1: It’s only a small loss & price always comes back!”

It seems an opportune time, what with gold & crude oil about to explode 
volatility boundaries relatively soon, either here in the last months of 2018 or 
in 2019, to discuss the histories of markets; “three [3] trading themes I want to 
present, 1) you cannot chase price in bull/bear markets and expect to “win”, 
2) you must liquidate on large spikes in your profit direction”, and 3) you must 
know the “fingerprints” of a market for corrections against the short term and/or 
intermediate trend”.

“And no Skippy, this time will most definitely not be different, when the volatility 
bubble expands in both markets for some time … there are no markets that are 
traded that consistently see more large M1 “spikes” to end moves, either in the 
short, medium, or long term cycles, than gold & oil”. If you chase price 
up/down, commercials are going to burn you badly.

No matter your trading method, you have to pick your spots for positions that 
are currently against the very short term trend … in other words, the 
correction, and then use spikes in your profit direction to liquidate, without 
caring or giving a “Hoover Dam” what happens next … we’re here to trade, 
not invest, and all that matters is that price goes higher once I’m long, or lower 
if I’m short … nothing else really matters, and in gold & oil, you have the two 
best markets on the planet for short term momentum plays in your favor.

Lastly, it’s vitally important to know the market’s “fingerprint” during 
corrections … for gold it’s usually approximately $3 per oz., ± a few pennies, 
and then the intermediate trend continues … if it goes past $5 per oz., the 
market quickly turns neutral, and the chance of a reversal type day gains in 
statistical significance … major reversal days in gold are rare, usually coming 
from day’s with ranges less than $7, where one end is touched or slightly 
extended, and then it races to the other side rather quickly … gold [both 
futures & spot] love to “double bottom or double top”, and quite often put in 
1) hammer candlestick formations or 2) bullish engulfing patterns at bottoms. 
At tops, doji stars and bearish engulfing patterns are the most significant and 
seen often on the M1. [Since we’re not trading oil yet at C2, I’ll skip until 
appropriate.]

Turning to today’s gold market … “I’ll say it again … anytime you start the 
trading day [7AM EST.] with the daily range > $10+per OZ., New York is gonna 
be trouble, or at the very least a complete “shitshow circus” … today sees gold’s 
range at 7AM at slightly higher than $16 per Oz. … so, this leaves very little for 
New York dealers to do but sell, sell, and sell some more … and once again, the 
“Chuckleheads” in Asia, led by Mrs. Wantanabe & Gal Pals, along with some 
help from idiotic Lemmings in Europe, join the buy parade and march price 
higher 13 hours in a row, and then predictably get it shoved down their throats by 
New York metals dealers a couple of hours later”.

I get to my screen about 5:30 AM EST., and all I can do is shake my head in 
disgust, cuz once again the world’s worst traders bite the worm on the end of 
the hook … “and I know what comes next in the hours ahead … mind numbing 
chop and some violent spikes, that will do two [2] things; 1) get people long at the 
top and short at the bottom, and 2) run both buy & sell stops like a yo-yo … and 
if you get caught in any of these, you got very little chance of making it back”.

And if wasn’t for the sell stop hunt early, then followed immediately by a total 
recovery, a basic $7 round tripper for those keeping score at home, “thank you 
very much Mrs. Wantanabe”, this market would have been declared “D.O.A.”  
at around 1 PM EST with about a $3 range … “what a pile of steaming bat 
guano, especially when you consider what came outside of New York”.

Again, I have stated this before in my blog … do the research of the great bull 
market in gold from 2008 - Sep. 2011 … price went from just under $700 per 
Oz., up to slightly over $1900 per Oz. … that’s approximately a $1200 per Oz. 
gain, and the numbers show Asia & Europe putting in about $15,000 of price 
appreciation, and New York taking out about $13,800 … bottom line is this:  
“if there was no New York trading, gold would be at about $30,000 per Oz. from 
the mid 1980’s”!

So, you come in and see gold up approximately $14 on the day, at the start of 
the trading day in New York, the first thing that goes through your mind 
should be, “oh shit, what do the dealers have up their collective sleeves today to 
sink gold lower? … and, beware the spikes higher, cuz more often than not it’s 
not the start of a move, but the end, quickly followed by “Thelma & Louise” 
showing up for a quick trip to the bottom of the quarry”! And, right on cue, the 
dealers didn’t disappoint.

What it’s gonna take to get a good rally in New York, is Asia & Europe selling 
off, OR a very quiet $4 - $6 range where nothing is really happening and price 
is drifting at the NY open … “that’s how you get New York rallies, NOT 
following Mrs. Wantanabe, and chasing price higher so you can get whacked in 
seconds … cuz when the bullion dealers put up that “Great Wall of Selling”, you 
might as well be one of the Mongol hordes trying to overtake the “Great Wall of 
China” … you ain’t got no chance Skippy”.

Only one PAMM & C2 trade today … PAMM up a couple of bucks.

One “iffy” signal I passed on, and one legit algo signal since 7 AM … looking 
back from overnight, five [5] signals total, “but hey, I need beauty sleep 
don’tchaknow”? In any event, not a helluva lot here but chop, and I knew it 
was coming the second I saw what happened overnight. In other news,  
“Turnkey looks to have secured enough food pellets for their Gerbils to run the 
MT4 platform … no trading disruptions, so I’ll put a ribbon on 
“the impenetrable bacon box” for them … I guess the food convoy sent from 
America made it through the U-boats and docked in London, and now the 
Gerbils are happy running furiously on the Hamster wheel … seems as plausible 
as all the other shit they throw at me, so hey”!

So, not much here today once New York opened … “let me rephrase that … not 
a damn thing here today … period”. Onto tomorrow, where I’m hoping we 
don’t see a repetition of today’s Asian & European price tsunami … it takes a 
lot of patience & discipline to trade gold effectively, and the algorithm knows 
it! Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.

click to enlarge

Have a great day everybody!!

UPDATE: I’ve changed the name of the C2 signals service to “VEGAS GOLD 
TRADER” effective immediately … PAMM trades XAUUSD [spot gold], and 
signals at C2 trade front month Comex gold futures at the CME … in the next 
day or two, I’ll have an updated “Informational Tutorial” in “Download Links”, 
and I’ll be re-writing some of the PAMM information as well.  

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!



 

 








 

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