There have surely been enough hints … the BOJ interventions, the Mary Daly
“wink wink, nod nod” maybe we could tighten “too much”, and Mr. Insider FED
himself at the WSJ giving the ultimate blessing by passing on the rumor … add to
that the abundance of horrible economic news coming out of Biden’s ‘Murica, and
bad news is good news once again in the upside down world of “Stonks” and
“Stock Bellies” … nothing says higher stock prices more than disastrous
economic and/or geopolitical news … “Supervolcano Yellowstone blows … 70%
of the U.S. is under 50 feet of volcanic ash … millions killed … stocks hit all time
highs on hopes the FED cuts interest rates! … [sub headline: women and
minorities hit hardest by racy-ist volcano.]”
And so maybe we get the “open secret” PIVOT [or pause] from the FED … we’ll
see at 2 PM EST on Wednesday … quite frankly, it doesn’t square with slaying
inflation like they say they want to do … political pressure no doubt coming from
the senile, incompetent, & corrupt “Taliban Joe”, but I doubt anybody listens to
this Doofus, and I can’t see anything but “buy the rumor, sell the fact” when the
dust clears for “Stock Bellies” … but when money goes FOMO, anything can
happen.
I have said this a million times, but it bears repeating … if the spread is right and
conditions are volatile enough, the market to concentrate in is crude oil … the
problem at Turnkey always has been the thieving HFT LP or group of HFT LP’S
they use, where one second the bid/ask spread can be 2 or 3 cents, and then blink
your eyes and it goes to 7 cents or some such shit … they use the “variable
spread concept” as plausible deniability in their pricing, always saying the same
thing when they screw an order … “DUH!, market conditions, DUH!”, which is
absolute horseshit … it simply gives them the excuse for slippage … and what
makes it particularly egregious, is the fact that their CFD is an average of front
month, second futures month, AND spot WTI cash, so you never know if the price
they quote is legit or bullshit … AND by pricing this way, they LESSEN overall VIX
in oil, while at the same time fucking everybody with slippage to boot … about
15% of the time during the New York session, you can’t trade it unless you totally
love giving money away for nothing … during the rest of the day, it’s about a
50/50 crap shoot whether or not pricing is fair or bullshit … but for the PAMM, it’s
all we got so I have to live with it.
What makes the energy complex [oil + Natty Gas] compelling to trade, given the
right conditions, is 1) good VIX, and 2) most of the time the m1 charts short term
“trend purer” than anything “Stock Bellies” or FX can offer, meaning fewer spikes
from Hell both up & down … not to say both oil and gas don’t have their bat shit
crazy [BSC] moments, cuz they do like ALL MARKETS, but from a trading
perspective, either scalping / day trading, you’re gonna get consistently better
moves from energy, and you’re gonna get more of them … and for those
wondering, I’m not sitting on my ass pouting cuz Turnkey sucks some of the time
in oil … I’m actively courting some other houses to specifically AND
EXCLUSIVELY trade oil in some format … in other words, I would only trade crude
oil … dunno yet how this is gonna shake out, but the “copy trade” format, if I can
CONSISTENTLY get the conditions I demand, might be a solution … we’ll see in
the days / weeks ahead … I’m talkin’ a “razor thin” cost to trade [spread + any
commissions] over futures, and the CFD is price based on the front month futures,
NOT an average like Turnkey uses.
And just in case nobody reading the blog has noticed, the CME feeling pressure
from the offshore community in oil CFD’s, has their own “MICRO” WTI FUTURES
CONTRACT, where a 1 lot volume is 100 barrels instead of the regular futures
contract size of 1,000 barrels … volume and open interest is directly below, along
with the link to the CME micro oil data.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/micro-wti-crude-oil.
Of course, unless you’re nuts, there’s no way you’d want to trade futures over a
good CFD … for most of the world, futures profits are taxable, but CFD’s are not
cuz they are considered “bets” on price with the LP, so they fall under gambling
… in the U.S. all brokerage houses will require FULL KYC with documentation,
and all profits / losses from trading at the end of the year are reported to the U.S.
IRS via a 1099 … offshore brokerage houses report NADA TO NOBODY cuz there
is no legal requirement to do so in the jurisdiction they are domiciled … add to
that there isn’t any KYC whatsoever cuz deposits / withdrawals are done
exclusively in crypto [e.g., Bitcoin, or some of the stablecoins], even though
once deposited you can have the house switch to dollars … I’m not suggesting
anything to anybody here via “opinion”, I’M JUST STATING FACTS … So, a good
crude oil CFD that is only fractionally off futures prices is the way to go.
Directly below is this weeks 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.
Over the last month, crude has lost about 30 cents per barrel, per the 20 Day
Range MA in the New York session … it’s still more than adequate, and we haven’t
even hit winter yet … look for oil to explode once the ChiComs come out of COVID
restrictions [if they ever do], and ramp back up their economy … in the U.S.,
supplies are very tight with diesel especially inventoried low … last I read, only
28 days of supply on the East Coast, so distillate supply [diesel & gas] is
propping up crude’s price … things can certainly change, but for now OPEC+ is
telling Biden to “pound sand”, and the oil market is a potential time bomb ready
to go off … let’s hope here near term, Turnkey can keep their shit together so
we can participate … onto FED Lounge Lizard week!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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