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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

DON’T BE DECEIVED

“The shady & corrupt underworld belly of financial trading!!”


The shit we’re in now is beyond the pale … I dunno if it’s cuz the financial

community has gotten the snot beaten out of it this year, whether it's Biden’s

negative wealth effect kicking in, or whether markets have hit the wall cuz they

can’t take the news bombshells that seem to hit every other day … maybe a

combo, I dunno … what I do know, is that both in GBPUSD / CABLE & crude oil,

ranges are dropping faster than Biden’s diaper from their 20 Day Range MA’s,

and it’s making for literal “stink bomb” trading conditions … don’t be deceived,

it won’t stay like this for long, and you simply can’t do “stupid shit” and expect

not to get hit when the outdoor stall is tipped over.


Turnkey for its part today, making oil untradeable with spreads in crude that

would make Vito Corleone blush with envy … basically 4 - 7 cents with an

occasional 3 cent quote to fool the unwary … homey ain’t payin’ that kind of

vig to trade oil … not that it matters much cuz the range over multiple hours in

crude is a paltry approximate 60 cents … and again, as has happened so often

before, in the New York afternoon when the “Spoos” make their move to

somewhere under or over the rainbow, crude tags along with some kind of

correlated move that gets people to do stupid shit, and then it doesn't … today it

decided to un-correlate and move slightly higher while the “Spoos” get monkey

hammered … no matter cuz we ain’t trading it anyway cuz the cost is too high

… that leaves Cable, where now after the London Fix, “Stock Bellies” are

dropping some and GBPUSD / CABLE is scraping the bottom of its pathetic

range of about 30 PIPS over the last 7 - 8 hours and threatening new lows for

the day … in other words, nothing here cuz algo parameters cannot get in sync

for signals cuz they are compressed on top of each other … meanwhile to

further frustrate us all who live in this part of the world, all of the trading action

occurred in the Asian session … “wonderful, nice … when do I move to frickin’

Thailand!?” … and now that the world has spoken via the Pacific Rim, the rest

of you can eat the shit sandwich and enjoy CHOP.


GIVEN THE NEWS FLOW in GBPUSD / CABLE, have you ever seen a worse

market than the shit we’ve seen this week in terms of trading action? … nope,

not even close … Cable should be flying and it’s D.E.A.D. … sure, there have

been worse periods for price action, but not given the news flow there haven’t

… and given the premise the trading algorithm operates under, which is decent

VIX, seeing complete INCONSISTENT VIX of spikes mixed with way too many

m1’s that completely suck, it leads to the logical conclusion of algorithm metrics

on top of each other and at odds with each other … in other words, there isn’t

enough VIX to get them in sync for s high probability / profitable trade … and so

here I sit waiting patiently for conditions to improve, and every day it seems they

get worse … it’s not like I’m asking for the world here, simply normal VIX given

the ranges … but when all of the action comes in off hours or in the Asian

session, and we’re left with table scraps from the feast, there isn’t anything I can

do but sit … or get lucky, or lose money … sorry, this isn’t a viable trading model

… that’s the bad news … the good news? … it won’t stay like this for long.


Then there’s oil, where even if Turnkey had their shit together and the spread was

acceptable, watching oil go up/down over hours for 60 cents is an insult to

markets … so while I’m hoping the spread goes back to normal, like tomorrow,

even if it did, I want no part of 60 cent oil ranges … talk about chop and getting

eaten up by the alligators in the swamp, this is it in spades.


No trades again today, and again not for want or lack of effort … can’t trade the

“Stock Bellies” at Turnkey cuz they are rip offs with not only high spreads

relative to other houses, but the slippage is on a par with gold … that’s a recipe

for losses … we simply need slightly better, more consistent VIX in Cable and the

algorithm trades will show up … and they will, this shit goes in cycles, so like I

said, the goods news it won’t last for long … onto tomorrow.


… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!


-vegas




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