MATH, CRITICAL THINKING, & TRADING … A FINE WITCH’S BREW

“Don’t make me release the flying monkeys!!”

Things are not always as they appear on the surface, and a great way to figure

out which markets deserve your trading attention and which don’t, is to take the

bid/offer spread and divide it into the 20 Days Range MA … directly below the

table for that for some most active pairs on the MT4.

click on table to enlarge

In the table, in the last columns are the numbers if markets lose approximately 30%

of their volatility from current levels … and as you can see, gold, Nat Gas & Crude

oil, IF THEY AREN’T FLYING AROUND LIKE CRAZED MONKEYS, they are relatively

expensive to trade, and most likely you’re throwing money away … the best pairs

are GBPUSD & DOW30 IN TERMS OF LOWEST COST … which leads me to point

out, that at Turnkey even with what appears like a high spread of 4 index points for

the DOW30, it’s still cheap to trade relative to its VIX … meaning at 3 index points

it’s still a better deal than other markets … and what you’ll discover at other

houses that have lower index point spreads [e.g., SIMPLE FX], is that slippage is

snuck in as the bid/offer spread changes, so that in effect you’re paying close to

4 index points there as well … and I can attest, the Mrs. has found this out the

hard way … in other words, the spreads I have quoted in the table are the TRUE

SPREADS, and you’re paying them one way or the other … either low spread,

higher slippage … OR, higher spread, lower slippage … nobody is getting anything

for free here …  however, the DOW30 is better than the SP500 and the NDX100

when it comes to cost … and while I don’t entirely trust Turnkey’s LP’s to handle

trades fairly 100% of the time, I also got to apologize for saying they’re “rip offs”

… they aren’t … just right with everybody else at the end of the trade.

Today sees another blowout headline day for GBPUSD / CABLE, with Truss

resigning as PM, a 44 day stint that makes her the dubious record holder of the

shortest Prime Minister of Great Britain in history … Cable goes straight up, then

one of the FED PIE HOLES reiterates higher rates for longer, and Cable goes

straight down … ditto for the DOW30, while crude diddle farts around and has

another very sub par range day relative to its 20 Day Range MA … unless the

spread is right, and unless oil is moving, leave it the Hell alone, there’s better

markets for dollar gains … I’m adding DOW30 to my list of tradeable markets, so

now we got 4 … GBPUSD / CABLE, USDJPY, WTI CRUDE OIL, & DOW30 … right

now I’m not watching YEN much cuz of intervention fears around the YEN’S 30+

year lows of 150, and the fact cuz of that it’s lost much needed VIX in the process

… oil is doing us no favors by shrinking ranges, and the fact that Turnkey’s LP’s

in oil are playing games with the spread … that leaves tradeable candidates of

Cable & DOW30, which provide decent VIX and range movement.

It looked early on like there could be some DOW30 algo buy signals, but once the

FED PIE HOLE took away the punch bowl from the rally party, “Stock Bellies”

headed south in a hurry and have never recovered … Cable traded better, but not

by much … only 1 algo buy signal in Cable today … TURNKEY PAMM UP

SLIGHTLY … too much one-way action followed by news that took it the other way

in a straight line … a nice FAT “V” reversal today lower in the Dow 30, with Cable

correlating nicely but lagging slightly … we need better up/down in terms of

corrective activity for a higher number of algo signals, which is cyclical so I’m

expecting a return to normal. 

This straight move shit is for the birds! … adding DOW30, even with dubious fills

sometimes will help with profitability on days when FX is nothing but chop city,

and oil is relatively dead … no worries, we’re headed in the right direction with the

proper markets and trading algorithm … onto tomorrow!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas