“Trades
EURUSD in Asia with trend … what can possibly go wrong?”
Congratulations
Chuckleheads! Two days in a row, you ramp EURUSD sharply higher, only to see the
European and/or U.S. sessions completely wipe out the gains. It’s a wonder
anybody in Japan has any money left, considering 1) overnight, Japan’s ‘Coinbase’
was hacked for over $400 million dollars in crypto, and 2) Mrs. Wantanabe &
gal pals get mauled two days in a row trading FX. First the train ride to hell
via EURUSD, and today the double reversal “monkey
hammering” of USDJPY. Is it any wonder Japan has 25+ years of stagnant GDP?
And seriously … “Mr.” Wantanabe, what
the hell is wrong with you for shoveling vast amounts of cash to the Mrs., each
and every month, so she can lose it all?
This
got me to thinkin’. [Uh oh] “You know, I
should do trading seminars in Japan … I’d call it the “Don’t Do Stupid Shit”
tour, and introduce the novel concept of buying breaks and selling rallies … I
know, radical concepts for a gambling society that wants to live on the edge
constantly … when they’re not trading they’re in a casino chain smoking Camels
& playing ‘Pachenko’ … I seriously don’t know if they could handle making
money, since losing is ingrained in their collective psyche”.
So,
after yesterday’s “Trump dump” in
afternoon New York, I’m looking forward to today’s European open and hoping to
see Asia has gone slightly lower, and then some long liquidation from European
types in front of the weekend. “Oh no,
that would be to frickin’ easy … nope, right before Europe opens, Asia has put
in an approximate 107 PIP range to the upside, and we’re sitting near the high …
WTF is this? … another open higher go higher, after yesterday’s ugly daily
candlestick pattern? … it doesn’t get much uglier than a “gravestone doji” on
the daily chart, on the high of the move, where we haven’t seen these levels in
4 years … so natch, open higher and go higher … wait … what? George Costanza to
the white courtesy phone”!
And
I feel, looking at this clusterfark, like the kid who just found out there’s no
Santa Claus … and I know in an instant this day is totally ruined. If we’re
lucky it will go lower, but it won’t be easy, and the spikes up will be brutal,
making any short sale almost impossible. Being long isn’t gonna be any bargain
either, cuz the down spikes will come out of nowhere when you least expect them
and set off whatever sell stop you have in the market. Simply put, a setup for
a brutal trading day, where you better be very fast with the liquidation button
on long positions, cuz the trading setup has been totally ruined by the Chuckleheads
in Asia … “thanks morons”!
As
I have often stated, the only thing that matters in trading is the “setup”; something losing traders never
seem to come to grips with and accept. And if you’re trading off news, or what
some “analyst” [people who can’t trade but like to make you think they can] on
CNBC says [while talking the firms position], you’re gonna be screwed tighter
than Matt Lauer.
The
algorithm works very well … excellent in fact … “when trading conditions are normal … get into a rip-roaring bull or
bear market, and it fails cuz it can’t keep up cuz it’s too slow; many signals
will be given after it’s moved 20 PIPS … what good does that do us? This is
where “situational awareness” comes in; is this a bull market right now in
EURUSD? … if it took you longer than a half a second to say yes, try trading
utility stocks with ‘E-Trade’ cuz it will be moving at your speed … you simply
can’t short bull markets, just like you can’t get long in bear markets, cuz the
spikes will literally kill your position in milliseconds … you have to pick
your spots, and in bull markets, that means you don’t chase the market up … you
sit and wait for it to come down to get long … on the spikes higher, you
liquidate … rinse, repeat, what the hell is so hard about doing this”?
And,
as I said yesterday, the best and most optimal way of trading rip roaring bull or
bear markets is the “teacup handle turn”.
I wake up this morning, check my email, and I got about a dozen people asking
for more about the “teacup handle turn”
… examples, how to trade it exactly, etc. … and, in addition, some were
wondering why it wasn’t included in the manual. The reason it’s not in the
manual is because it’s a very special situation, for a specific type of market
condition, and if I included every single special situation there is in the
manual, it’d be over 1000 pages long. The better scenario, is to make it available
when it occurs, cuz then I have examples to show you, and we are dealing with
it in real time, not 5 years ago. Well, obviously now is that time.
After
engaging in some Homer Simpson “deep
thoughts”, I’ve decided to make the “teacup
handle turn” its own PDF, as an addendum to the “Scalper’s Algorithm: The Final
Solution” and post the file in the “Download Links” section in the right-hand column
and make it available for viewing online and/or download. So, on Sunday night,
I’ll have the file posted for everyone, in a special Sunday night blogpost.
Turning
to today’s trade … like I said, any long trade “setup”, totally “FUBAR-ed”
by the Chuckleheads in Asia … and, it’s a Friday, which means there are cross
currents of position squaring for the weekend; given the huge move we’ve seen,
having Asia do all work for the day’s range makes what’s left almost worthless.
Since the GDP & durable goods reports, and President trump’s speech at
Davos, EURUSD for the most part, has been under 1.24400 … the low from Asia is
1.23863. I made one long trade today, a good “setup”, and for a few seconds it looked promising … then “blink your eyes” once and it’s a race
down … simply put, a very tiny profit, but a profit nonetheless. This type of
trading action was typical of the whole day, Europe included, and it’s simply
not the kind of day I want to trade … the risk here is high, given the recent
moves. Having said that, any move down that takes out the low and sees sell
stops hit off, I’ll be a buyer … and we simply have not seen that.
Since
this up move in EURUSD started some weeks ago, if not for the Apple
repatriation dump news, and the “Trump
dump” from yesterday, there hasn’t been anything in terms of downside
movement … nada, zip, zilch in Asia, and nada, zip, zilch, & zero in Europe
… that looks to change next week, as the daily candlestick is starting to look
a lot “ugly”, and in need of a break
in price. Asia being Asia, the most likely scenario for a break in price will
come at the European open on some day next week; Monday or Tuesday the most
likely days … while we’ve seen some sell stops get hit off, at a minimum I’m
looking for 1.23680 to get taken out and more stops mauled … most likely it
will come fast and furious, maybe on some slightly disappointing news, or some
POL opens his Pie Hole … nonetheless, it needs to happen soon, or else this is
going to be a total train wreck when it ends on the upside. So, we’ll see what happens
on Monday.
I’m
somewhat “irked” at these assclowns
in Asia, that only know one thing; buy highs and sell lows, and they cost us money
cuz the “setups” for trades are completely
ruined … and while it doesn’t happen all that often, any time Asia puts in a
range of over 100+ PIPS in EURUSD, you can take it to the bank that’s pretty
much the whole day, and the next 16 hours will be a total shitshow … and that’s
what we got today. The bottom line is this:
“when the setups aren’t there, whether you are cognizant of it or not, your reward/risk
ratio plummets … and what you get are spikes out of nowhere that literally
blitz you into oblivion, and in the process the market loses everything it
spent the last hour or two attempting to gain … and the dirty little secret is,
you can’t escape them cuz they happen so damn fast. And Newbie traders get
totally bewildered, wondering how you win this game … well, it’s the setup, and
if it isn’t there, you put your hands in your pocket and wait ‘till it is …
just look at today’s afternoon New York trading, and in the context I’m talking
about, it all suddenly makes sense”! So, it is what it is, and we move on
to next week, where I’ll be shocked if we don’t get one or two down days to
take advantage from the long side … I’m outta here … until Sunday night mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM
spreadsheet directly below.
