SUNDAY UPDATE: LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING

 

“Seems legit to me!!”

Let’s start today off with the weekly 20 Day ranges & Medians for our 4

markets … BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SPOT GOLD [XAUUSD], & THE SP500

[“SPOOS”].

click on table to enlarge

While crypto slows down some, which is to be expected, gold has broken above

the $30 mark for daily average, where we’ll see if that holds or is extended further

… and as good as that sounds for gold, there are some “bigly & yuge” problems

with trading it … the spread could and should be better, and slippage on fills is

ALWAYS a problem with the asshole HFT LP’s … and what that means in practical

terms is that your risk on any trade ain’t what you think it is … quite frankly it’s

open ended in the worst case to $10 - $15 per OZ, and most likely to the $5 level

on other occasions.

On the other hand, consider the “Spoos” … NYSE median consistently above 30

index points, and while the micro futures usually trade close to or over 1 million

contracts a day [1 lot = 5* index], the interesting item to note is that volume is

almost always about 5X LARGER THAN OPEN INTEREST [OI] … As an aside, it’s

a couple of notches lower in gold … and that means it’s a day trade / scalp

market by the masses in  the U.S. … the rest of the world hardly trades futures,

instead trading CFDs cuz futures are taxed and CFDs are legally considered

gambling bets and NOT subject to tax.

The problem with the “Spoos” CFDs are the brokerage houses that offer them

and the scumbag banks or HFTs [most likely] that make a market in them … and

what you’ll find is that the houses that offer great conditions frown on scalping or

outright ban it … Coinexx is “middle of the road” when it comes to ranking, and

doesn’t mind scalping, but what happens if your trades are too fast, is that the

LP you opened the trade with gets really pissed if you consistently “pick them

off”, and in order to prevent this they’ll fill your liquidation price way off the

market … you may think you should be up ½ an index point, but your fill says

your down ½ an index point, as they fill you a full index point under the current

bid on your screen … scream at ‘em all you want, they don’t care.

But overall, outside of the occasional straight up / down all day long, which

infects ALL MARKETS to some degree or another, you can make a case that the

“Spoos” are actually a better trading market than gold or crypto … two reasons

… 1) better risk profile, and 2) somewhat better up/down moves during the NYSE

day … not every day to be sure, but most days … it all depends on the spread

and how the main LP at the house your at fills orders … some good, some really

suck … and for whatever risk profile you want, if you want higher consistent VIX

then trade the NDX100 … the spread is higher and the slippage greater, and along

with the DOW30 at Coinexx, both suck as trading vehicles cuz of horrendous

slippage IMHO … your house may be different and better, and it could be worse

as well … in the days ahead, I most likely will do some “Spoos” trades, and we’ll

see how we get treated … onto the week.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas