“This should be you!”
Sit back, relax and think … there’s a present under the tree for you … just you
and nobody else … in fact, nobody but you can see it! … and every time you
pass through the living room or den where the Christmas tree is, your eye
catches a glimpse of it sitting there … hiding, whispering your name to come
open it … and when somebody says to you, “what are you looking at”?, you say,
“oh nothing, just thinking”, and off you go … well, tonight’s the night when
Santa roams the world, and while you may have to wait ‘till Sunday to open
your present, the wait will surely be worth it!
I am a person the world says vehemently, “you can’t exist”! … academics,
professors, the “smartest people in the room”, Ph.D.’s, MBA’a, analysts [who if
they could would be “traders”, but since they can’t make it as a trader, they call
themselves “analysts”], brokerage house execs, exchange “pooh bahs”, lawyers,
doctors, FED Twits, & credentialed elitists the world over … “it’s IMPOSSIBLE for
you to exist”!! … “ummm, OK … here I am, deal with it” … and with that and a
wave of the hand, dismiss everything cuz it hurts brain cells to think about the
ramifications of what I bring to the table, and simply “let it go” as some kind of
accident of nature not worthy of serious consideration.
Pick whatever theory you want to analyze trading, from “Random Walk” to it’s
nothing more than “casino gambling” … and as everybody knows, you can’t
overcome a negative mathematical expectation via changing your betting
[trading] volumes … and while I agree that many times trading takes on an aura
of gambling, I would argue that’s because of 1) familiarity, and 2) when YOU
choose to make it a “gamble”, then it’s in fact “gambling” … but that’s your fault,
and doesn’t mean my trading falls into that category … by contrast, if we both
bet on “hard six” in the game of craps, only at different times, it’s the SAME
negative mathematical expectation each & every time for both of us.
What this means of course, is that “trading” [not the FED QE “funny money”
bullshit we see daily in the stock indices, but real “trading”], is most definitely
NOT gambling … of course, if you want to fall into the “Trading Places”
stereotype of the wild “Cocaine Cowboy”, have at it … I’m sure as hell certain
they’re out there still, and they were most definitely there when pits ruled the
world … problem is, when you fall into this type of trading behavior, it’s almost
impossible to change your trading habits, which ultimately lead to account
destruction.
When I was on the exchange floor, and I don’t mean for this to be demeaning or
condescending cuz that’s not my intent, but rather it’s simply the truth, at least
half of the “trading professionals” or “locals” as they were known, were some of
the dumbest people I’ve ever met in the entire span of my life … if brains were
dynamite, they couldn’t run a 10 watt bulb in a hamster cage … and yet,
hundreds of them were there year after year after year, in different market
trading pits, through raging bull markets, raging bear markets, and lifeless dull
markets … the same dim bulbs making great incomes, amassing fortunes
… well, how’s this possible? … even if I was a “dim bulb” Rube from the “sticks”,
who wandered into the big city, how did I outsmart, out think, and ultimately out
trade the “smart money” that was there to “pick my pocket clean”?
I’m gonna boil this down to a concise & simple answer … on the surface of it, it
may not make sense to some people at first, but when you think about it
“critically”, strip away nonsensical gambling idioms & trading lore, and look at
the real issues in trading … not the players, but the “game” itself, and yes Skippy
it’s really just a “game”! … making a great CONSISTENT income and amassing a
fortune boils down to 5 criteria … 1) Probability Theory, 2) Intraday VIX [IVIX],
3) Time, and 4) how well does your trading model or algorithm ACCURATELY
MEASURE & REFLECT THE TRADING PARADIGM YOUR MARKET OF CHOICE IS
IN, and 5) your cost of doing business, i.e. bid/offer spread + any round turn [RT]
commissions has to be LOW … MAKE THAT VERY LOW … so low, that’s it’s
insignificant to the IVIX and profitability of the market you’re trading. AND THERE
YA GO! … accept or not, I don’t give a shit, cuz it isn’t what you, me, or anybody
else thinks … it’s only what “IS”, what the reality of the market tells you … what’s
real and the entire rest is bullshit between your ears, and your ears ONLY
… follow the bullshit, and I promise you that sooner or even sooner, you’ll be
back in the “Pudding Business” … here it is right in front of you.
In the history of trading, it’s never been easier to quantify “probability theory” in
trading, make it visual, and then fugetaboutit! … it hasn’t always been the case,
and once “visualized” and made graphic, you can allow yourself to focus on
trading instead of the math … you know it’s there, but you don’t have to
constantly calculate it and mess with it, your computer system does that
automatically in real time.
IVIX simply measures your level of “opportunity” in a given market … the greater
the IVIX, the more opportunities you have to make money, OR make back losses
incurred on previous trades, so naturally you want to trade markets that have
above average IVIX … this should be obvious.
Time is where the “land mines” lay … when are the important market moving
reports coming out, and more importantly what are the “perceptions” and
“whisper numbers” markets are looking for … the actual numbers mean little,
it’s perception that counts going forward … avoid the land mines.
The second area of time has to do with internal market dynamics … every second
of every trading day, somebody somewhere with a large position is sweating
bullets & pissing blood … estimate where the stops are, both buy & sell, that can
either help you or hurt you … avoid taking positions where large stops are likely
to be that are opposite your intended profit direction.
The third area of time is what part of the day are you trading, and how does that
impact the market you’re trading? … what is the 20 Day Range MA of your
market, and where are you in relative terms to that number? … in other words,
you’re taking the IVIX. the actual 20 Day Range MA, and probability theory, and
asking yourself how time affects these areas as you move through the day?
Now for the interesting part, your trading model or algorithm you use to trade
… “well giddyup mi amigo, cuz if you put chicken shit into the model, don’t
expect it to produce yummy chicken salad”! … and what’s critically important
here is understanding the true nature of the market you are trading, and what
trading “paradigm” you’re actually operating in and under … get it wrong, and
you’re fucked, simple as that … this wasn’t an issue before the 2008 worldwide
financial crisis … since then, it’s been a very big issue … in gold, the “Rally
Protection Team” [RPT], to systematically smash gold down started in the Spring
of 2012 … in FX, the “Swiss Debacle” in January 2015 ushered in central bank
involvement in FX markets never before seen, and since then it’s been straight
downhill for most FX pairs VIX … BREXIT for Cable & Cable crosses, that for
almost 4 years up and until December 12, 2019 made trading Cable akin to being
at a “bingo parlor” … and of course, the U.S. stock indices which have been
heavily manipulated by the FED since February 2016, when they stepped in and
saved the U.S. domestic oil industry … and after that, it was an easy step right
over into stocks where they’ve been ever since and show no signs of leaving
anytime soon.
I’m like everybody else, I’m human … yes I know, hard to believe … I missed the
first couple of years of manipulation … I didn’t want to believe that government
was actually manipulating markets for policy [read elitist] purposes, and it cost
me … 2015 - 2017 were rough years for performance … I didn’t lose money, but
I didn’t make anything of substance either … a lot of “treading water”, as
algorithm models that were significantly profitable over decades of trading
became “coin flips”, and simply failed to deliver … “WTF happened here”?
… EASY PEEZEE [in retrospect]: “ A paradigm shift in financial markets … figure
out the new paradigm, make adjustments, look at whatever history is available,
do the math, start trading it … in the FX CHOICE PAMM / MAM that trades DOW30
exclusively, that means the “88/6/6” trading paradigm, using the
“Traders Course” [TC] algorithm for scalping [day trading] … and since I started
on October 28, 2019 the PAMM / MAM hasn’t had a losing day since I started
about 2 months ago … high probability of profit? … hell yes, but when the
manipulators step in and IVIX drops, I back away on those days and tell the
manipulators to eat shit and die, simple as that.
And lastly, IT MATTERS WHERE YOU TRADE AND HOW YOUR ORDERS ARE
TREATED … the trading biz is like rapidly shifting sand dunes in the desert, and
it’s been like this forever … new rules, new spreads, new commission structures,
new and better players, bigger money, more competition, better network
communications and higher & higher internet speeds … all of these are
constantly changing for the better for traders, IF you keep your eyes & ears open
to the changes … I can’t tell you how disappointed I am with Turnkey & Coinexx
as offshore brokerage houses, where the issues against customers are gigantic,
and nobody there seems to care in the least … bottom line is horrible slippage
on fills, terrible execution times, and phantom bid/offer quotes … just horrible
places to trade IMHO.
Fortunately, we’re now at PRIMEXBT … the very best bid/offer spreads & RT
commissions, for the LOWEST COST to trade of anywhere I’ve ever been in the
electronic, internet age of trading … BETTER TRADING CONDITIONS THAN WHEN
I WAS ON THE TRADING FLOOR! … and I might add, you don’t have to fork over
hundreds of thousands of dollars to join a corrupt exchange! … most of the time,
the very best crypto [BTC] & CFD crude oil conditions, and literally all of the time,
the very best FX trading conditions … add to that, instantaneous market fills ON
THE MARKET, with no slippage that I have seen, all attuned to the volumes you’re
trading, so there’s no guesswork whether you’re trading 1,000 GBPUSD or
1,000,000 GBPUSD … you click the buy/sell button, and you’re gonna be filled
faster than you can blink your eyes, right on the market in a few milliseconds
… quite the difference from bucket shops Turnkey & Coinexx where my fills took
MULTIPLE SECONDS, cuz they needed the time to reroute my order to a third
party shit weasel LP who filled me off the market and then split the proceeds of
the stick up …. This is what got FXCM kicked out of the U.S. … not illegal if
disclosed in the U.S., but highly unethical to say the least … other jurisdictions
it’s totally legal, and this is what both of these bucket shops do, and why orders
take seconds to fill, and why you get raped on every fill … and with the amount
of trading that scalpers can do over time, don’t underestimate how much money
PRIMEXBT puts back into your pocket … it’s frickin’ “bigly & yuge”!
Earlier in the week, one day I traded Cable 5 times from algorithm signals on
100,000 notional at PRIMEXBT … a couple of years ago, before I gave up trading
Cable at Turnkey, I got ripped as much as 2 ½ PIPS on a trade entry, and then got
mugged another 1 ½ PIPS liquidating the position … if I remember correctly, I
basically scratched the trade, not making or losing anything, but feeling raped
nonetheless … of course from Turnkey you get the standard, “DUH, market
conditions, DUH!” bullshit response … let’s just say this was an aberration, but I
still get screwed 1 PIP each way … 5 trades a day = $100 that got stolen from me
… 250 trading days in a year = $25,000 … yea, read that again and let me know if
you’re willing to put up with this kind of shit, cuz I’m not!!
Add to this NO KYC to open an account and start trading, and account balances
held in Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s most valuable currency, and if this doesn’t
“ring your chimes”, then I don’t know what it is you want from an offshore
brokerage house, or any trading house for that matter … if you’re not trading
HERE, you’re giving money away, simple as that.
Since high speed internet came onto the scene, which was about 2002 - 2003, I
have been publishing trading research, and hosting at various places over time
a blog … I do this out of respect & to honor my mentor Bert, who I promised
many years ago that I would do my best to “pass the knowledge on” to those
looking to change their financial lives … most of the time this isn’t work, but
merely an expression of passion that I have for the biz … but I can clearly tell
you this, that if it wasn’t for my mentor, you wouldn’t be reading any of this, or
considering a trading career … my mentor Bert was taught by a guy he knew in
the Army, who after WWII, came home and took one of W.D. Gann’s courses in
New York, sometime between 1945 - 1952, the year Gann died, and got to study
at the feet of the all time master of trading in person … from him over a 5 year
period, Bert learned the “ins & outs” of corn, cotton, & lumber [his favorite
market] … from what I was told, he died sometime during the late 1960’s
… now here I come about a decade later, and the rest is history.
All of this brings me to NOW … come Sunday, I’ll be releasing the
“Traders Course II” [TCII], which is exclusively focused on GBPUSD AND the
Cable crosses, most notably GBPAUD … now that Cable is out of “FX prison”
from BREXIT political bullshit, there is no better time to publish & release this
material … TC II is available FREE, if you open an account through my affiliate
link in the header of the blog, fund it with any amount you want, and then email
me to let me know you’ve done that , and I’ll send it to you ASAP … and quite
frankly, cuz I’m NOT looking to raid your wallet, and instead would suggest you
take the $60 you save and put it into your trading account, I’m not doing this for
the money … I don’t need your money … instead let PRIMEXBT pay your freight,
and trickle to me some coin over time for something you’re gonna do anyway
[which is trade], and whether you’re an affiliate or not you pay exactly the same
in RT commissions … everybody wins here! … OR, send me $60 in BTC to my
E-Wallet address in the header, go trade somewhere else where you’ll pay more,
and whatevs … I don’t give a shit, cuz I’ve done my part.
So, my Christmas gift to you, all of my readers, is priceless information … if you
think I’m full of shit, then fine, think that … go find a “guru” who will raid your
wallet, hand you some bullshit, then disappear … they’re all over the internet,
you won’t have any trouble finding them ready, willing & able to spank your bank
card … I’m just a guy with verified, audited results of making millions trading,
what do I know? … and while it’s gonna take a few days past Christmas for me
to get it all down in “black & white” and get it ready to send out to all of you, it’s
worth the wait and it’ll be ready sometime this coming Sunday.
OMG!, do my eyes betray me? … what is this “red” in the “Tulip Bulb 30” M1’s
today from the NYSE open? … I think I got a case of the “vapors” … do any of
the faculty lounge twits at the FED know of this move lower? … is Mnuchin on
the phone to the “C” team manning the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] desk?
… can we possibly get the DOW30 to close lower today? … well, it’s early yet in
the day, and with an early close cuz Santa is coming, I wouldn’t bet on seeing
“red” stay the course … looks & feels like a bag of dog shit to me.
Nonetheless, one Scalpers Algorithm buy signal today in the DOW30 … FX
CHOICE PAMM / MAM UP A HAIR SHY OF 0.2%.
A tiny bit of IVIX gave us one trade … after that, meaningless chop I wouldn’t
touch … feels like nothing but position squaring ahead of Christmas … cuz the
day after Christmas is “Boxing Day” all over the U.K. & Europe, stock indices
CFD’s won’t reopen ‘till Friday … FX keeps it’s normal schedule with tomorrow
closed. I didn’t trade Cable today or GBPAUD, cuz I just don’t want to be in very
thin markets ahead of Christmas … with a high probability they aren’t going to
do much anyway, why let some spike from hell ruin the day? … so, I’ll pick Cable
up again on Thursday when Europe comes back.
No blog tomorrow cuz it’s Christmas … enjoy festivities with family & friends
… until Thursday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great & joyous Christmas everybody! … MERRY CHRISTMAS!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment