Quite frankly, the header pic looks like BTC on Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday
from the European open to the NYSE close … and you’ll notice there wasn’t
really any panic selling [“bigly & yuge” sell stop hunts on the M1], simply a
constant & consistent pattern of continued selling non-stop, with very few
“dead cat bounces” that got crushed quickly when the short covering ended
… it isn’t the crossover of PLUM OVER WHITE that gets me long … it’s the
corrective activity after that which sees PLUM STAY OVER WHITE ON ANY
CORRECTION and then move higher … and we didn’t see many of those in the
last 3 days, although going into the NYSE close on Friday we did see some
short covering that lifted price … these scenarios offer the highest probability
of success … simple crossovers don’t!
I dunno whether lightning strikes twice or not, but human behavior of 1) greed,
and 2) fear are constant and forever! … in the spec collective, especially in a
free market environment, markets simply runout of fuel and panic takes over
… a lot of traders forget this in the age of modern manipulation of everything
else … and while BTC was getting “monkey hammered”, the shorts over in ETH
got blistered to the upside in their correlation trades and/or in the cross spread
ETHBTC … you simply have to trade each crypto pair as standalone or run the
risks of a pork belly spread trade gone rogue on steroids … MAN-O-MAN did
ETH clean out the buy stops!
Directly below the 20 Day Range MA & Median MA for selected pairs … and the
table shows quite clearly, it’s pretty pathetic outside of crypto … I said at the end
of 2023 I didn’t think 2024 offered much hope in terms of VIX, with maybe a
“here & there” release of some built up steam as a random process to take the
edge off some markets … so many rate cuts priced in already, I see nothing but
disappointment unless we get some depression level numbers, but given
government lying & propaganda all over the place, how’s that gonna happen
in an election year? … that’s the first third to half of 2024 … then comes election
bullshit which will paralyze markets like nothing before, the last half of the year
… throw in overt manipulation by central banks every other fucking 5 minutes,
and somebody enlighten me how traditional markets break out of this matrix of
bullshit?
Crypto’s industry wide problem, though, is one of commissions or spread, take
your pick!, which are too fat, way too high, and dependent on price … IQCENT
HAD A GREAT PLATFORM … the key word there is “HAD”, cuz it ain’t any more!
… the LP, Thompson Reuters, has instituted “ANTI-SCALPING” SOFTWARE that
fucks with everybody who trades a pair … overnight at the end of 2023, the
bid/offer spread became meaningless, and all that matters is the FREEZING OF
THE BID/OFFER WHILE A PAIR MOVES, thus trapping traders on the wrong side
and screwing them cuz they have no way to get out, and then at some arbitrary
point in the immediate future, everything simply jumps “mucho” ticks at the bat
of an eye … could be $20, or it could be $300 in BTC, or maybe more! … it’s only
a matter of degree in any of the other crypto pairs … the software decides based
on a random number generator along the distribution axis of a “T-Distribution”,
which is used cuz there’s no way to know the population VIX of a pair since VIX
changes so often … which means quite frankly, you better be buying a VERY FAT
PREMIUM BASIS in BTC when it shows up, cuz that’s about the only statistically
relevant profitable long trade in the “arb scalping” universe … ditto with all of
the other pairs.
Cuz it ain’t just trapping the wrong side, it also fucks you if when you bought the
market BTC rallies in the primary market … WHY? … CUZ WHILE PRICE
RALLIES, THE BID/OFFER THAT MATTERS TO YOU AT IQCENT IS FROZEN
WHERE YOU GOT IN … it hasn’t moved! … BTC goes up $50 at Coinexx or
Phemex, but you can’t get out … then quickly it starts to leak water and 90
seconds later it’s $150 lower from where you got in … then the bid/offer goes
down $150+ in a microsecond at IQCENT! … maybe more! … some FUBAR
setup huh?
Meanwhile, you have to watch BTC carefully if you’re trading it at a place like
Coinexx … usually better LOWER COST, but these Assholes will blow the
spread out for any reason whatsoever, so you have to keep an eye out for that
… and I don’t see where ETH at Coinexx is any better for the PAMM, although
some days they alternate screwing people between BTC & ETH … the one
positive is that the HFT running crypto at Coinexx is a pure “Arb”, and I don’t
believe any “Anti-Scalping” software is running at Coinexx in crypto … FX, gold,
“Stock Bellies” and you can count on the fact slippage is built into the cake and
your fills will always and forever be off the market, sometimes “bigly & yuge”
… the only markets worth trading any longer at IQCENT ARE EURUSD, USDCNH,
& USDJPY, and I have previously written about how they make their money in
these pairs, and what you need to do to effectively trade them for profit.
The question this week is simple … where does BTC find support and bounce
hard? … we’re gonna find out! … onto the week.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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