Today’s main feature presentation of volatility in everything comes at 8:15 AM
EST, with ADP job numbers … this the supposed “private sector” only jobs
report, that historically can be radically different than the math whiz kids over
at the Dept. of Unicorns & Fairy Tales, which we get Friday morning … I’m
hoping we get a sigma miss from expectations [up/down, who cares?] … what I
want is “spec chaos” over at IQCENT in USDJPY … you know, “Twilight Zone”
shit … and if we don’t get it, no big deal, it’s back to normal programming of
spec MOMO & FOMO.
USDJPY is a scumbag bank LP’s “highlight reel”!, where stops are always in
sight to be butchered like a hog, and FX traders everywhere got short fuses
… they learn quickly, that “the first rats that jump the ship, get to come back
later and do it again & again” … the ones that don’t go down with the ship … in
other words, those that panic first get to panic later … a self fulfilling prophecy
amongst the spec community, not only in crypto, but in Yen as well
… “arb scalping a must here!”
When crypto isn’t moving at a healthy clip, “arb scalps” get tough to find … any
kind of choppy action is gonna lead the LP at IQCENT to not let the bid/offer in
crypto pairs move much … chop in crypto sees the offer move up while the bid
remains constant … hitting the buy button is gonna see you go orbital, cuz your
fill has been robbed, mugged, & raped … I’ve written in previous blogs how
IQCENT makes its money from traders … very razor thin spreads, and no
commissions, so where’s the money come from for management’s yachts &
mansions, whether it’s in crypto or USDJPY? … it comes from splitting a silent
“traders tax” that gets applied when somebody buys upticks or sells down ticks,
somewhere outside of current market bid/offer quotes elsewhere, like at primary
dealers … “arb scalping” reverses this, and allows us to benefit from spec
dislocations in price, when buying, when TEMA 13 is OVER SMA 7, HL/2 … cuz
all I’m doing is “basis” trading … under normal USDJPY conditions, the basis of
IQCENT versus Coinexx is anywhere from -4 PIPS to +4 PIPS … when SHTF on
either econ reports, POL and/or Apparatchik “blah blah, yada yada”, or buy/sell
stops [which are always ever present!], if the market moves are big enough in
the m1 [around 20+ PIPS, the more the merrier], the “basis” is most likely gonna
go bat shit crazy [BSC] … not at all guaranteed of course, but highly probable
… and then we’re talkin’ about 20 - 30+ PIP discounts or premiums that
evaporate in seconds … when the specs at IQCENT panic, they don’t fuck around!
So what leads any LP to go this route, of being off the primary market so badly?
… it isn’t just specs at brokerage houses the LP serves, it’s also the fact, IMHO,
that smaller to medium sized financial institutions all over the world [numbering
in the thousands at a minimum] get spot transactions in USDJPY that come from
their modest trading desks getting corporate or institutional flow in one of the
many YEN crosses … could be South African Rand / USDJPY OR ANY OF THE
DOZENS OF OTHERS THAT FALL OUTSIDE THE BIG 2 OF EURJPY AND GBPJPY
… that financial institution gives their clients a bid/offer that’s wide, very wide
… they take the order and then since their not in the business of “trading”, get
to their source of liquidity, which could be “”Thompson Reuters”, the LP at
IQCENT … the bank is most likely taking in local currency, so that’s not the
problem for them … the problem is USDJPY, which they don’t need or want on
their books … and when that side of the equation gets quoted, they’ll get
“scalped” themselves getting rid of USDJPY by IQCENT’S LP … and thus we see
at times these fantastic “arb scalps” you’ll never ever see EVAHHHHHHH!, on
the MT4 at Coinexx or any other place … you don’t get it, THEY GET IT! … and
it’s happening all the time! … bottom line is, “FX is just like crypto, only you
only see it in crypto cuz everything all over the world is DECENTRALIZED, and
therefore open for all to see … FX is CENTRALIZED, meaning the top 5 or 6
mega world banks, led by JPM, make the market from which everybody feeds
… and that means on the MT4 or MT5, you get to ALWAYS buy the offer or sell
the bid, take it or leave it … “arb scalping” changes that, and now we get to join
the “club” … why would anybody ever buy USDJPY at the Coinexx offer [or any
other house where you’re locked in just like at Coinexx], when we can buy it at a
DISCOUNT TO THE BID!?
The “SortVolume.mq4” indicator over in “Download Links” is exactly what I’ve
been looking for to add into the MT4, to get a clue as to collective spec activity
in buying tops and selling bottoms in non crypto markets like USDJPY, when the
market is under relatively “normal” trading conditions … by giving us BOTH BUY
VOLUME [LIMEGREEN] AND SELL VOLUME [RED] in the same m1 candlestick,
we get a much better picture of what’s going on in real time … and how it’s
determined is from the LP, which in the case of Coinexx, most likely it’s an HFT
[High Frequency Trader] like Citadel, Black Rock, or Virtu OR from EBS
[Electronic Banking System] from the collective likes of the top 5 LP’s in FX
… either way, it should be relatively equal … up volume is when anybody buys
the offer in USDJPY from a bank or the HFT, and sell volume is when anybody
sells the bid in USDJPY from a bank or the HFT … it’s measured in real time and
changes during the m1, and gives us a very meaningful snapshot of spec activity
… make sure you incorporate it into your MT4 platform for non crypto markets!
On Sunday’s blog post coming up in a few days, I’ll be releasing a new Adobe
pdf that guides you step-by-step through LONG “arb scalping” AND algorithm
trading using TEMA, SMA, and the “SortVolume.mq4” indicator … instead of
ALWAYS being at the mercy of some scumbag bank or HFT, you’ll discover and
hopefully implement the concepts that will always see you buying at a
DISCOUNT to the primary market … you want an “edge” in trading?
… well here it is!
Turning to today’s trading action, inside the world’s most corrupt casino, and
didn’t that escalate quickly? … a softer ADP jobs number of 103K jobs with the
consensus expectation of 130K … and down goes Frazier! … as with most m1
blowouts on reports, the discount isn’t gonna take place the m1 of the report, it’s
gonna come in the immediate minutes after the number, and today was no
exception … directly below, a pretty nice “arb scalp” that took 11 seconds when
IQCENT WAS DISCOUNT TO COINEXX BY 15 PIPS!
After that, it didn’t take long for all of FX to go to shit in a handbag … 20 hours
into a 24 hour day, and USDJPY with an anemic 63 PIP range … EURUSD with a
pathetic 34 PIP range [what the Hell is up with that?] … gold I think is closed cuz I
haven’t seen it move more than a buck or two the entire day …. Crypto doing OK
in the Asian & early European sessions, but like everything else, when New York
enters the picture markets go to shit, thank you FED manipulators … yet, and
this is important … even on a shit day, “arb scalps” in USDJPY do just fine in
bringing home the bacon! … as I’ve said before, when crypto slows down to a
crawl, it’s very tough to find “arb scalps” worth taking, cuz unless you’re right
there watching for it, the LP in a millisecond will start raising the offer, and if
you’re a half second late, you ain’t gonna like the fill one “Hoover Dam” bit,
whether you’re trading BTC, ETH, MATIC, XRP, SOL, or DOGE.
After the ass mauling gold took on Monday, it more than likely is gonna take
some time for gold to get back on its horse … maybe a blowout sigma miss on
jobs to the downside come Friday via NFP, or maybe the FED meeting on
DEC. 12 provides an unexpected spark … and if that doesn’t do it, gold is
“dead money walking” ‘til the start of 2024, at the earliest … and while we will
patiently wait for gold to get its “sea legs” once again, “til that time the PAMM
moves trading over to USDJPY … we can’t “arb scalp”, but the algo signals
are there.
A good day for “The Syndicate”, and a boatload of USDJPY trades on modest
volumes, and we’re UP APPROXIMATELY 1.1% … onto tomorrow.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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