Perhaps my readers will be a little surprised at this, but another
“high vol / high VIX” market often overlooked by me cuz it can plain old kill you
if you’re not careful … thank Miss Gimpy for doing the work & research, and
then calling me out for not wearing my “Big Girl Panties” [BGP] … “STFU!
… trade it for not only “arb scalps” but for algo signals as well … you ain’t got
no logic to stand on to NOT trade it! … I don’t wanna hear about it … now go
get your BGP, & get your ass back here to trade!!”
I feel like I’ve been sent to the principal's office and the teacher used my middle
name as well, which ALWAYS spells trouble for you! … “OK, they’re on a little
tight, but let’s rock & roll!”
The market I’m referring to is USDJPY … and I know what I’ve said before about
USDJPY and the reason or reasons I disliked it, but “feelz” & FACTS are 2
separate things entirely, the former existing only in my head, and the latter
existing in the marketplace … I know a lot of people are gonna be happy about
this, cuz a lot of you are hesitant about crypto, and there are advantages of
trading USDJPY for “arb scalps” and/or algorithm signals at IQCENT … 1) the LP
at IQCENT keeps a tight lid on the spread, usually 0.4 or 0.5 PIPS with no
commissions … 2) unlike crypto, unless it gets “really messy” with price quotes
[rare, but it does happen], the LP is there with a market bid/offer … and 3) as I’ve
said before, you can’t trade at IQCENT without another source of primary
liquidity, so as to not get ripped off by premiums [when buying] or discounts
[when selling] … USDJPY at IQCENT sees the bid/offer quote anywhere from
-5 PIPS discount to Coinexx bid price, to as many as +5 PIPS premium to the bid
price at Coinexx, UNDER NORMAL TRADING CIRCUMSTANCES … however, get
a whiz kid econ stats report, a POL or central bank Apparatchik that opens his
PIE HOLE, and it can get wild! … latter today, we get SP & ISM services at
9:45 AM EST and 10:00 AM EST, respectively … spec traders at IQCENT FOMO
& PANIC better than any place I’ve ever seen!
I’ve made some minor changes in the algorithm … replace EMA [AQUA],
PERIOD 7, HL/2 [MEDIAN] to SMA [AQUA], PERIOD 7, HL/2 [MEDIAN] and
incorporate the “SortVolume.mq4” into the MT4 … this will improve algorithm
performance!
Natch, you wanna be buying when the algo shows TEMA [WHITE] OVER
SMA [AQUA], and if you choose to be short, when the algo shows TEMA
[WHITE] UNDER SMA [AQUA] … I still remain adamant that traders should stick
to one side of the market and stay there, switching only when central bank
policy changes sentiment of the Yen versus the Dollar … right now, the BOJ
still remains “insane”, and I’d much rather be long than short … some day that
will change [maybe], but it ain’t now … my point is, pick a side to trade from and
stay there until its time to switch, and then stay there for a while … don’t go back
& forth day-to-day switching just cuz it went up/down the previous day … if you
do that you’re gonna get chopped up worse than a tossed salad!
And “oh boy”, did the reports out today ever spook USDJPY traders at IQCENT!
… and as I wrote earlier today above, things move from “normal” to
“crypto crazy” in USDJPY when SHTF and prices either rise or fall dramatically
... well now, here come the FOMO & panic traders at IQCENT, and the LP is in for
some wild gyrations you can profit from, just like when crypto goes nuts … only
USDJPY gets a lot more of these then any crypto pair! … a lot more! … and while
not every report, POL, or Apparatchik creates havoc, plenty of ‘em do, and today
we got 3 of ‘em … the first S&P global services PMI, and the second ISM services
numbers didn’t have much affect, but job openings [JOLTS] showed a softer job
market, and while the first had some movement, USDJPY went up fast, then
down fast, and here comes the first batch of “arb scalp” opportunities … that
data blew out the “basis” [IQCENT versus Coinexx] to -15 PIPS to +15 PIPS, and
directly below, stripping away account numbers and the like and just showing
the data from the trade at IQCENT … notice both price and TIME the trades were
made … this profitable trade didn’t come from market movement, it came from
panic “basis” selling, followed seconds later with that wide negative “”basis”
going back to even.
Then came the 10 AM EST ISM and JOLTS data … this was a decent
“Thelma & Louise” over the cliff to the bottom of the quarry … and the basis a
minute or two later blew out to -30 PIPS to +30 PIPS … and at this level, I don’t
care what the algo is saying cuz with Coinexx USDJPY rallying, I’m taking the
trade almost 30 PIPS UNDER where Coinexx is trading USDJPY, and like crypto
ONLY BETTER CUZ USDJPY IS THE SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN THE
WORLD WITH ABOUT $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS A DAY TRADING VOLUME, I
know this “void” and deep discount won’t last but a brief few fractions of a
second before a bank, an arb, or some hedge fund comes in and takes the rest
of what’s offered by the LP … I’m betting that in a few seconds, Coinexx won’t
come even close to a drop that threatens the long trade … I don’t have to wait
minutes or multiple minutes, cuz this market is too deep for that … too many
players of every level!
And it led to the second “arb scalp” trade directly below … again, notice the
price and TIME it took … if you look on the Coinexx MT4 platform with an m1
candlestick, the time will show no big movement to justify this price … well,
here it is, and again I stress, this is strictly a “basis” trade [IQCENT TIME IS 2
HOURS UNDER COINEXX PLATFORM TIME ON THE M1].
All of this leads to an important question … “Why can’t anybody “arb scalp” if
available and the opportunity presents itself on reports, OR simply use
“arb scalp” concepts for a regular algorithm scalp or day trade?” … well, you
can do both! … one doesn’t disqualify the other, and they can be joined
together ... given USDJPY movements, whether it’s “normal” or bat shit crazy
[BSC] on reports or other news, you’re covered for a decent trade setup … and
whether you choose to be short or long [right now I favor long], it doesn’t make
any difference in the long run cuz you’re gonna have your moments either way,
plus the fact there is no advantage logistically or strategically for one side over
the other for trade advantages … the pros and cons of each side are
symmetrical and equal.
So for me, unless crypto is “moving” in the session I’m trading and offering
good sized movements often up/down, the advantages lie with USDJPY
… 1) more trades as the “basis” moves constantly in the -5 PIPS to +5 PIPS
range under “normal” trading conditions … 2) USDJPY gets wild far more often
than any of the crypto pairs, so getting very wide discounts and premiums occur
much more frequently …. 3) the IQCENT LP is much more involved with USDJPY
and offers better bid/offer quotes, even when SHTF, unless it gets truly wild,
which is what happens far too often in crypto that sees trades missed cuz the LP
won’t make a market until things settle down … 4) USDJPY is a much bigger and
deeper market than any crypto pair right now ever hopes to be, and thus getting
the discounts you want for long positions, when you get them, are relatively far
safer from a risk perspective than crypto pairs … “get long, wait seconds,
liquidate, let’s do this again!”
Thank you Miss Gimpy! … [I suppose you want me to buy dinner cuz of this?
… oh right, ALL DINNERS from now on!]
Meanwhile over in gold land, a “dead cat bounce” if I ever saw one overnight
and into U.S. trading … at the very least, it’s gonna be very tough to make hay
in gold from the long side until NFP on Friday … the daily chart looks as “ugly”
as it can get for gold right now after Monday’s ass mauling by the FED
… consolidation and retesting lows are gonna have to happen IMHO, before any
price rise can be sustained … a lot will depend on the NFP whiz kid report, so I’ll
hold judgement until then … No trades in gold today for the PAMM.
Yup you guessed it, a stellar day for “The Syndicate” as we did nothing today
but “arb scalps” in USDJPY at IQCENT … UP APPROXIMATELY 1.2% on modest
volumes … first some “arb scalps” under “normal” trading conditions, then
comes the deep discount BSC trades to round out the day … quite frankly, this is
better than NDX100, cuz there the spreads are higher which makes costs greater,
and unless crypto can start “moving & shaking” during the time I’m trading or
looking at it, the LP at IQCENT has responded to the challenge of a
“1 tick market”, by jacking the offer higher while keeping the bid constant, and
that leads to some truly horrendous fills that makes “arb scalping” less
profitable … crypto has to be moving nicely, and lately it hasn’t been doing that
while I’m sitting at my screens … USDJPY IS THERE ALWAYS!
And while it would be nice to be able to do this for the PAMM, there’s no such
animal called “arb scalping” at Coinexx or any other MT4 platform … you’re
stuck with the LP come “Hell or high water”, and the “arb scalps” out there,
they’re taking for themselves … it is what it is … onto tomorrow!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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