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Friday, December 29, 2023

DON’T MAKE MOUNTAINS OUT OF MOLE HILLS

 

“Trading is SIMPLE! … I never said it was EASY!!”

Before we get to actual trading, a few things need to be said … 1) traditional

financial markets are RIGGED, MANIPULATED, & SKEWED against specs

… 2) trading platforms are dishonest and a disgrace to the concept of trading

anything representing a “free market” … and 3) liquidity providers [LP’s]

everywhere, no matter the platform or house, are scumbag thieves and crooks

and belong in jail … their sole purpose is to enrich themselves at your expense,

and they all employ to varying degrees very sophisticated mathematical

algorithms to trip you up into losses … they understand spec psychology better

than you know yourself, and most likely you never realize you are constantly

being enticed into psychological reactions you don’t understand or fully

appreciate.


I’ve written at length about “arb scalping”, which is only available with LP’s that

are not on the MetaTrader MT4 or MT5 platforms … you are completely at the

mercy of a scumbag LP for a bid and offer, without knowing whether or not it’s

legit or bogus … most are “BOGUS” / phantom bid/offers, and you have ZERO

chance of ever getting a fill near them … under the surface, the LP is skimming

the shit out of markets worldwide, and you end up getting the worst bid/offer

imaginable WITH SLIPPAGE TO BOOT! … it’s called life at the bottom of the

MetaTrader totem pole!


Open Order Book [OOB] platforms are only available in crypto, but are just as

susceptible to abuse from “arbs” [SPOOFING ORDERS] and “Whales”

[RUNNING STOPS], and most of the time that depth of market you’re looking at

is a complete joke … again, manipulation at the highest psychological level

known to humans, and the “spoofing” bullshit that goes on here is legendary

… bid/offer spreads are about as tight as tight can be, with the problem being

“gas fees” [a/k/a commissions], which are “high” to say the least … then we

encounter places like IQCENT, which have the OOB tight spreads, and also

have ZERO commissions … it begs the question of “how do they make their

money then?” … EASY PEEZEE: “they split slippage & thievery with the LP

[Thompson Reuters], and probably sell customer account information to boot

for extra income [nothing personal, just trading info about you]”.


I mentioned briefly the other day about “anti” scalping measures LP’s employ

against specs … 1) the bid/offer quote doesn’t correspond 1:1 with a primary

market [e.g., Phemex] … so while a crypto pair rallies 7 ticks on the bid side at

Phemex, at IQCENT, the bid/offer doesn’t change at all, it remains the same as

before the rally … if the market keeps rallying, then the IQCENT LP will in one

jump, up the bid/offer by a factor set by a mathematical algorithm that represents

a statistical “T DISTRIBUTION” based on current volatility in the marketplace … if

VIX is low or medium it can jump 7 - 15 ticks, and if VIX is bat shit crazy [BSC], it

can go much higher to levels over 70+ ticks into the hundreds! 


Bottom line is simple … what seems like random up/down movement AIN’T!

… it’s the LP attempting to thwart specs who are “scalping” cuz the market is

volatile enough to do it and make money at the LP’s expense … and the LP is

saying to you, “we have ways to defeat you that you aren’t aware of!” … only,

they didn’t reckon on me coming along and spilling the beans! … generally

speaking, “T DISTRIBUTIONS” are an attempt to normalize small sample sizes

… directly below a generalization.



Generally speaking, you have to determine the scope of “BASIS PREMIUM” &

“BASIS DISCOUNT” for the crypto pair or pairs you are trading, and get a good

idea given the VIX level of the pair when you’re trading it, of where PREMIUMS

& DISCOUNT values are at and when you should adjust them for major VIX

changes … remember “BASIS” = (price at PHEMEX) - (PRICE AT IQCENT)

… NEVER EVER buy a DISCOUNT [price is higher at IQCENT than Phemex]

… I’m most familiar with the crypto pair MATICUSDT [POLYGON] … under

normal VIX for the pair, PREMIUMS & DISCOUNTS will be in the +25 ticks for

PREMIUM to -25 ticks for DISCOUNTS … when m1’s start to go BSC, they can

go into the hundreds! … realize that these measures taken by the LP are to

thwart scalpers looking for a quick hit at the LP’s expense … they may look

random, but I can assure you they aren’t! … you need to know the SCUMBAGS

YOU ARE DEALING WITH!, and how to defeat them at their own game! … very,

very few understand this, but now you do!


The trading algorithm for crypto pairs is as POTENT AS IT CAN POSSIBLY BE!

… TEMA period 13 [white], and SMA period 7, hl/2, [orange] … both in the library

of indicators on the Phemex platform [ https://phemex.com/trade/MATICUSDT ]

… and in crypto, volume is often a harbinger of tops and bottoms, especially after

a medium to long run in price [up or down, doesn’t matter] … large sell volume

[red] at bottoms and large buy volume [green] at tops … directly below FROM

EARLIER TODAY, can you spot the top in MATICUSDT price and match it with

volume?


click on chart to enlarge

Crypto pairs love to run and squeeze cashews! … “Whales” love to “pump &

dump” pairs at will, and the TEMA & SMA lines are almost perfect in calling

short term TRADEABLE TOPS & BOTTOMS! … “just follow it Skippy” … when

TEMA is above SMA BUY PREMIUM … liquidate on jumps higher … rinse / repeat,

what’s the problem? … don’t turn mole hills into mountains by adding a whole

bunch of technical indicator shit that is only going to rob performance … nobody

can deliver the “Holy Grail” so stop looking for it! … and btw, as 2024 unfolds,

more and more people will make the move to crypto pairs and abandon

traditional markets altogether … “it’s dead Jim, it’s DEAD!”


Like previous days, monster ranges in SOLUSDT & MATICUSDT, and if you can’t

make money in this, YOU CAN’T MAKE MONEY PERIOD! … blog update on

Sunday … cya then!


… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!


-vegas







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