Well now, most important inflation numbers EVAHHHHHH!, until of course the
next one, and while the “Uniparty” destroys the Banana Republic with profligate
spending on the dumbest shit possible for the “Free Shit Army”, it’s important to
know if you’re one of the “math whiz kids” calculating inflation horseshit, that
the fate of the country depends on you lying … and then when the numbers
either meet or exceed lower the expectations of Wall Street analysts, the Ponzi
con game can continue unabated for another month.
But what if the “whiz kids” didn’t get the White House email for mandatory
lower inflation numbers, and inflation truth takes hold? … then Skippy, markets
have a very big problem!
Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … well, for a few minutes anyway … and
after the immediate mandatory rollercoaster in USDJPY, that screed both longs
and shorts, scumbag banks decided to take it slightly higher … then the fun
began, cuz after that second leg up to the 145.50 area, the bullshit chop that
ensued for about 20 minutes allowed me to multiple “arb scalps” in quick order,
with PREMIUMS of about 12-15 PIPS, which almost immediately came back to
“basis” ZERO or a slight discount … “OK, fine so far, let’s keep the party going
shall we?” … err, no let’s not! … and as fast as it started, it ended even faster as
USDJPY died on the vine “el quicko mucho” … and it never came back out of
about a 25 PIP range of bullshit chop for the next 5+ hours … and with that kind
of bullshit going on, which is just pre-positioning for tomorrow’s FED interest
rate horseshit, there’s no way you get any “arb scalps” that mean anything or are
going to go somewhere, simply cuz the market isn’t going to give you the
PREMIUM to buy cuz nobody is panicking any longer … well yes, this is
disappointing, so when they won’t play, time to move over to the area that’s
always “playing”! … crypto … and MATICUSDT is on the move again, with half
the New York session over [7 AM EST - 7 PM EST], it’s already got an
approximate 500+ PIP range and is delivering the bacon so to speak.
Now follow me here, and make sure you understand the importance of what I’m
writing … there’s a “bigly & yuge” difference between USDJPY [maybe EURUSD]
AND THE CRYPTO PAIRS when it comes to “arb scalps”… they act differently,
and the dynamics of the trade are entirely different … I’m going today to
highlight how “arb scalps” are set up in crypto pairs, particularly my favorite
pair MATICUSDT [POLYGON] … let’s first remember how “basis” is determined,
cuz you absolutely CANNOT trade at IQCENT without a primary market for price
on another platform … I like Phemex, but there are others like Binance
… “BASIS” = the BID price of MATICUSDT @ PHEMEX - THE PRICE OF WHERE
YOU CAN BUY IT @ IQCENT … therefore, I want to buy PREMIUM BASIS, and I
NEVER buy DISCOUNT BASIS!
Now let’s remember how IQCENT & their LP [Thompson Reuters] make their
money when the bid/offer spread is only 1 tick at the 4th decimal place AND
there are no commissions … EASY PEEZEE: “They blatantly screw their client
base on fills, and whatever they steal the LP splits it with management of the
brokerage house, in this case IQCENT, but remember the LP probably has
dozens of houses where they act as LP.” … which immediately begs the
question of why I would recommend a house that does this? … it’s cuz of the
fluctuations of the “basis” from positive to negative, back & forth, all day and
night, and our ability TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS … AN ADVANTAGE
WHEN DONE RIGHT, YOU’RE NOT EVER GONNA GET ON THE MT4 OR ON
OPEN ORDER BOOK [OOB] PLATFORMS BY THEMSELVES EVER!
Since crypto is essentially 100% spec, where arbs in the primary market
[Phemex or Binance] are present to reflect spec order flow while making
guaranteed money making trades with specs, it’s the source of the calculation
for the “basis” … then along comes lesser LP’s like the one at IQCENT, and they
have an entirely different agenda … their computers keep close track of all of the
clients trading a pair like MATICUSDT, AND THEIR COMPUTER SYSTEMS KNOW
TO THE NANOSECOND WHEN IT’S OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD … when it
gets overbought, that means future sell pressure cuz they all got to sell and
liquidate at some point … on the way down, specs often double / triple /
quadruple up losing positions, SO YOU ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE
PREMIUM BASIS … why? … cuz the LP knows there’s sell pressure cuz your
long, it ain’t gonna give you an out unless you “SELL IT IN THE HOLE!” … in
other words, you sold MATICUSDT @ 0.8614 cuz that was the bid, while at
Phemex the bid was 0.8630 … when specs puke collectively all at once, the
PREMIUM will balloon out to levels of around 25 - 30 ticks … that’s the usual
norm … but when conditions get truly bat shit crazy [BSC], and MATICUSDT
goes down 200 - 500 ticks in 1 or 2 m1’s, the PREMIUM HAS IN THE PAST
BALLOONED OUT TO 200+ TICKS … I’ve shown the trades I and Miss Gimpy
have made in MATICUSDT, where in 30 seconds or less we’ve made this 200
ticks as the “basis” comes back near ZERO “el quicko mucho”!
On the flip side, when traders get oversold in MATICUSDT, off of any bottom
you’ll see a DISCOUNT GO ORBITAL … it’s not unusual to see anywhere from
-20 on the basis, and if the rally is acute going straight up, to -40+ DISCOUNT
… the reason should be obvious! … the LP isn’t gonna let you out unless you
“PAY THE PIPER BABY!” AND HIT THE OFFER TO LIQUIDATE some 40 ticks
OVER where the offer at Phemex is at … and what if it sits for a minute or two
and goes down slightly? … if history is any guide the DISCOUNT WON’T COME
IN VERY MUCH … and if it takes off again higher, you are truly fucked, where
you’ll end up buying the high some -30 to -40 “basis”!
The entire premise then of the LP is pretty easy to figure out, and unless you
maintain discipline & patience, they will catch you and screw you! … and the
system favors long positions cuz when you buy PREMIUM, all that needs to
happen is for the bid at Phemex to stay steady or go up a few ticks, and that
PREMIUM disappears “el quicko mucho” so fast it will make your eyes water
… literally seconds … THAT’S NOT HOW IT WORKS ON THE SHORT SIDE OF
THINGS! … and that’s why I strongly recommend for crypto pairs, you trade
them from the LONG side and get the proper PREMIUM … I’m not your MOM, so
if you want to venture to the short side, it’s fine with me, but don’t email me with
tears in your eyes when you get short a fat DISCOUNT, and some pair like
MATICUSDT JUST KEEPS GOING STRAIGHT UP, AND ALONG THE WAY TO THE
TOP IT KEEPS THAT -20 TO -30 DISCOUNT, and in the process it blows the shit
out of your account … I don’t wanna hear about it, cuz I warned traders
NOT TO DO IT!
And as I have repeatedly said, you don’t buy PREMIUM on the way down in price,
cuz neither I nor you have any idea where it can land … it will eventually bottom,
and that’s where the nice, juicy, fat PREMIUMS WILL SHOW UP FOR
PROFITABLE LONG TRADES … for a pair like MATICUSDT, I’m looking for
PREMIUM in the vicinity of 20+ ticks once it bottoms … and if it doesn’t happen,
OK fine, I just wait cuz it will happen at some point! … and if SHTF on the way
down to hundreds of ticks lost, 20 ticks of PREMIUM ain’t gonna cut it … just
wait and there should be a MASSIVE PREMIUM COMING SHORTLY FROM
SYSTEM STOPS.
A truly disappointing day in USDJPY, where 1) U.S. CPI came in right on
consensus, and 2) once the dust settled from the report the market simply died
on the vine giving not only “arb scalps” the “deep six”, but simple algo signals
the kiss of death as well … no trades in the PAMM, but tomorrow sees PPI early,
then the “Biggy”, the FED at 2 PM EST … I doubt the PPI does anything, but
we’ll see.
For “The Syndicate” today multiple arb scalps” in USDJPY in a short time frame,
and then I moved over to MATICUSDT, where “arb scalps” were plentiful cuz
MATICUSDT IS/WAS MOVING! … WE’RE UP APPROXIMATELY 0.8% on light
volumes, here before FED day … and while MATICUSDT was moving, BTC &
ETH didn’t do Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat in the U.S. session so far … go figure!
… but it’s crypto, so anything / everything can happen and usually does
… onto tomorrow.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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