It’s been a very long time since I’ve seen the depths & scope of the trading
clusterfark seen on Friday in the U.S. session … double massive sigma misses
to the upside in both NFP & ISM reports … of course, market reactions across
the board were immediate and vicious, with FX and particularly gold feeling the
brunt of massive long liquidations … of course your sell stop got raped, what did
you expect? … only “Stock Bellies” traded anywhere near sane levels.
Which brings me to the version 2 trading algorithm … it’s not ready for release yet,
cuz I’m still working on it … it’s broken up into 2 separate documents … one is the
algorithm straight up with its components, along with implementation and rules
for trading … the second is the premise behind the algorithm and the theoretical
basis for the components … in other words, how it’s made and why … and this is
the section I’m finishing now … briefly, it gives the reader 2 choices … 1) gimme
the algo, I don’t care how you created & developed it, and/or 2) I want to
understand what’s behind it and why it works … and after this is finished, I’ll
release the binary options updated manual a week or two later.
As Friday pointed out, you don’t get any favors from scumbag LP’s, pretending
to make a market, when in fact they are nothing more than thieves … liquidity
providers my ass, the only way you get a halfway decent fill is if your order helps
out their own trading book … if not, and you’re trying to buy along with them
trying to buy, or sell when they’re selling, and you’re gonna get a shit fill off the
market absolutely GUARANTEED … of course, some houses are better than
others in different markets, and a lot depends on how much trading biz a
brokerage house can steer to a bank or super HFT … but when SHTF and panic
sets in, both buy and sell side, you had better be early on your liquidations
… cuz if you ain’t, it’s gonna leave a burn mark!
I have said this repeatedly on the blog … if crude oil CFD’s traded like futures,
and you had futures conditions, meaning 1 or perhaps a 2 cent spread between
bid / offer, then I would abandon every other market and exclusively trade crude
oil … even with today’s shit ranges of only a couple of bucks, that kind of spread
and the VIX of the market still make it worthwhile … however, there isn’t any
offshore house I know of that comes close to this, that is “friendly” to U.S.
citizens or residents … there are some NO KYC places that come close, most
notably “XBTFX” [2 cent spread + 0.7 cents per barrel round turn commission,
making the cost 2.7 cents per barrel to trade], and “SIMPLE FX” [3 cent spread
and no commissions] … but 2.7 or 3, ain’t 1 or 2, or anyplace in between!!
… trading U.S. futures, whether regular or micro, involves full KYC with a U.S.
broker [e.g., AMP Futures], and will generate 1099’s that are sent to the IRS
… read anything you want into that statement, it’s simply a statement of FACT,
NOT OPINION … even in “slow conditions”, I could most likely live with a 2 cent
cost to trade, BUT IT ISN’T OUT THERE, and never has been … instead, we’re
treated to shit like 4 - 7+ cent spreads [and higher] if the market gets very active,
and that’s totally unacceptable.
And since that’s basically “off the table”, and there is no way in Hell I’m opening
a U.S. futures trading account, it brings us face-to-face with “Stock Bellies”, the
other leading futures trading vehicles at the top of the financial world of
derivatives trading … the ONLY complex that enjoys the “88/6/6” trading
paradigm … argue all you want, tell me all about market crashes, explain to me
your opinions about the evil & pernicious “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT], show
me the economic stats pointing towards a depression right around the corner, and
the imminent collapse of the U.S. economy to 1929 levels of despair and hardship,
and tell me all about how your charts are pointing to the SP500 [”Spoos”] going
sub 1,000 in a market crash of epic proportions … been hearing ALL OF THIS &
MORE FOR DECADES! … and yet, “Stock Bellies” [SP500, DOW30, & NDX100]
over time spend 88% of the time going higher, 6% going sideways, and 6% of the
time getting “monkey hammered” [from the daily charts] … go ahead, do the math
from the inception of the PPT since the crash of 1987, and this ratio holds up
very well.
Knowing this, and understanding that there isn’t anyway in Hell the FED is gonna
ever get rid of the PPT, it only makes perfect sense to want to trade any of the
“Stock Bellies” CFD’s FROM THE LONG SIDE ONLY … I’m not saying you can’t
make money being short from time-to-time with a short position … only that
consistently doing that is gonna land you in the “poor house” … you basically
have a 16 - 1 advantage being long! … excuse me, what’s not to like about this?
… of course, what matters most when it comes to any of the 3 markets in this
paradigm, ARE THE TRADING CONDITIONS OFFERED BY THE SCUMBAG LP’S
… “aye, there’s the rub!!” … is the bid/offer tight and legit, or is it phantom and
complete bullshit? … what about slippage on fills, is it very low to non-existent, or
is it outrageous? … and what kind of margin leverage do I get from the house,
good or shit?
Directly below, are the links to the “micro” futures traded by the CME [volume &
open interest], in response to the competition offered by the offshore world’s
CFD’s.
SP500 … $5 times the index … minimum tick = 0.25 index points
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/micro-e-mini-sandp-500.volume.
NDX100 … $2 times the index … minimum tick = 0.25 index points
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/micro-e-mini-nasdaq-
DOW30 … $0.50 times the index … minimum tick = 1 index point
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/dow-jones/micro-e-mini-dow.volume
On Friday, February 3, 2023, the volumes for the micro SP500 = ~ 1.55 million
contracts, NDX100 = ~ 1.50 million contracts, and DOW30 = ~ 180,000 contracts.
Of course, when SHTF the minimum tick values go out the window, but keep in
mind when things slow down some, what you’re paying to trade the CFD’s
versus what the futures are doing … you may not like what you see!
Since the merger of Turnkey into Coinexx, for the PAMM I’ve lightly traded the
“Spoos” and DOW30 … I haven’t traded the NDX100 since the old days of
Turnkey back when it was near 7,000 on the index … when you look at the micro
values, my best guess is that you get better fills when you match futures levels,
and if you don’t, you can expect wider slippage … this makes sense cuz the LP
doesn’t want fractional positions on their hedges … e.g., at Coinexx now, all of the
indices are $1 * the index per 1 lot volume, so if you trade 1 or 2 lot volume in the
“Spoos” you’re trading a fractional micro lot, which is 5 times the index … expect
a shit fill … however, if you trade in multiples of 5 in the “Spoos”, execution
should be much better … ditto for the NDX100 in multiples of 2, and in the DOW30
it doesn’t matter … this partially explains my experience of generally getting
better fills in the DOW30, no matter the volume, rather than the “Spoos” … a
good “hybrid” so to speak is the NDX100, which is where all of the high flying
tech stocks reside … more volatile than the “Spoos”, less volatile than the
DOW30, but much better liquidity and volume than the DOW30 … just from Friday,
about 800% better!
As I said, houses differ on spreads, commissions, and slippage … you ain’t
gonna get the info you need from a demo account … you need to test live
conditions … from what I have seen so far on the Coinexx VPS, bid/offer spreads
are better than average from other houses by a small amount … RT commissions
are very low … slippage is the main issue for all 3 of them … buy on a green
spike up, or sell on a red spike down, and expect the worst, cuz that’s what
you’re gonna get … that’s gonna happen no matter where you trade … bottom
line, though, is that the version 2 trading algorithm is ideally suited for indices
trading … going forward, I’m going to be doing some NDX100 trading for the
PAMM … the quoted spread is good enough, that if slippage can be kept in check,
it’ll be better than the “Spoos”, I think … we’ll see … I’ve been told in no
uncertain terms, that higher volumes get better treatment … multiples of 5 in
the “Spoos” and multiples of 2 in the NDX100 … again, we’ll see, but at least in
theory it makes sense.
Just looking at Friday’s volume figures from the micro futures side of things, it
becomes readily apparent that the trading public is “all in “ trading “Stock Bellies”,
and have basically given the middle finger to oil, gold, and FX … micro oil had
about 85,000 contracts traded on Friday, micro gold about 111,000 contracts
traded … compare these to indices, and it ain’t even close.
All of this brings us to the version 2 algorithm itself … it works exceptionally well
in all markets … but, and here’s the rub … “you have to be able to get in and out
effectively without getting butchered with bullshit spreads and slippage!” … one
look at gold from Thursday and Friday, and unless you love $0.50 - $1.00 bid/offer
spread conditions + SLIPPAGE of who knows how much, there isn’t anything you
can do with $50 - $60 ranges that are in freefall … may the force be with you if you
have to hit the sell button on the way down … FX almost as bad, where both
EURUSD and GBPUSD [Cable] saw higher spreads than normal, with bid/offer
quotes jumping around frenetically, many times over 1 PIP from the last quote a
microsecond ago … and that means slippage my friend, much higher than normal
… what good does a 1 or 2 tenths of a quoted bid/offer spread mean when you hit
the buy button and get filled 1.5 PIPS higher on a bullshit spike in the offer?
… only to see it go down immediately to where it was less than a microsecond
ago … blink your eyes twice and you’re down 3 PIPS … ditto the same on the sell
side … and what all of this means in reality, is that the EURUSD spread isn’t 0.1 or
0.2 PIPS, but is closer to 1.5 - 1.7 PIPS when they get finished screwing you … and
I’m betting, this isn’t what you expected … Hell, might as well be in “Stock Bellies”
cuz I won’t get treated any worse, and I’ll have a much better chance of market
movement cuz of the “88/6/6” paradigm, and the chances of the “Loser Formation”
showing up are far less than what’s likely to happen over in FX after they screw
you!” … and if you think I’m wrong about this, then explain to me why “Stock
Bellies” wallop the shit out of FX on the spec trading side of things via micro
futures, not even counting all of the CFD volume? … I’m listening, and I don’t hear
anything! … in addition, most of the volume occurs in NYSE hours, which is only
6 ½ hours long, not the 24/5 bullshit seen in FX … that means more action in a
compressed time frame, not the drawn out crawl moves often seen in FX … so, if
you’re trading EURUSD, what do you think you’re getting that isn’t better than
any of the “Stock Bellies” CFD’s?
And this is why I passed on trading either EURUSD or GBPUSD on Friday … why
trade shit that’s worse and run the risk of 1) equal to worse slippage, and
2) “Loser Formation'' possibilities definitely on the immediate horizon … and
truth be told, “Stock Bellies” didn’t even see greatly expanded ranges … things
were pretty subdued on that front, so it wasn’t as if the “Spoos” had a 150 index
point range, or the NDX100 had a 400 - 500 point range … both gold and FX had
expanded ranges … look what that got you?
In the version 2 trading algorithm manual, I give you everything you need to trade
1) the 3 “Stock Bellies” markets, 2) EURUSD, USDJPY, & EURJPY, and 3) Gold
[XAUUSD] & Crude Oil [Brent and/of WTI] … so, if you are comfortable with a
brokerage house spreads and slippage, and you wanna trade #2 or #3, the manual
has you covered … ditto if you happen to trade futures as well in any of these
markets … the algorithm supports both long and short positions, so if shorting is
your passion, have at it … in addition, there’s bonus coverage of longer term
trading of “Spoos” and gold via the ETF’s SPY & GLD … most houses in the U.S.
now offer ETF commission free for those shares, and they are perfect for longer
term traders cuz you don’t have to pay the daily “vig”.
Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s of selected markets for this week.
You’ll notice expanded coverage of the New York session for both SP500 and
NDX100 New York ranges [9:30 AM EST - 4 PM EST] … it only makes sense to
include these along with the DOW30 … a quick glance at the table, and it
becomes apparent that most days / weeks, the ranges in the New York session
are 85% - 90%+ of the entire day’s price range for the “Stock Bellies” … “oh, so I
don’t have to move to frickin’ Thailand after all to get decent North American
trading action?”
“Stock Bellies” ranges popped a little over the previous week, after having been
on a downward trajectory since the end of 2022 … let’s hope it stays this way
… I’m disappointed in both FX and gold, at least as far as Coinexx is concerned,
but it’s probably the same everywhere, as conditions deteriorated into shit in a
handbasket rather quickly … for gold especially, I’m left wondering how long
people put up with this manipulated horseshit before they finally say “adios” to
pet rocks as a trading vehicle … every couple of years they pull this “over the
cliff” horseshit on specs … quite frankly, it shouldn’t be a surprise to any of you
when you see the volume figures for “Stock Bellies” significantly higher than
gold, or even crude oil … at some point people walk their accounts to other
markets … it simply all depends on what kind of conditions your house gives you,
when it comes to the “Stock Bellies” CFD’s … some are good, some are shit … I’d
rate Coinexx more towards the good side, and they’re a Helluva lot better than
Turnkey ever was, so they have made progress with LP’s in the “Stock Bellies”
arena … onto tomorrow and the week!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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