Who’s up for a QUINTUPLE REVERSAL day? … no you say, that can’t and
doesn’t happen? … well, feast your eyes on yesterday’s “Spoos” trading action
where we got just that! … welcome to the casino, where EVERYTHING is
possible.
I realize Japan was closed last night cuz of “Emperor’s Day”, just one of the
hundreds of Holidays enjoyed by the Japanese … but does that mean the entire
world goes with ‘em? … seriously, overnight some of the softest ranges and
trading activity you can ever hope to see … with all that’s going on in the world
today, how can this be? … do people not care anymore or did they simply run
out of money?
I noted yesterday, it doesn’t really matter what you got up on your screen, and
that’s true … when the “Spoos” are quiet, everything is quiet … one of the pairs
I have always been fascinated with is GBPCAD … 1) it’s not the YEN on the
denominator, 2) USDCAD is a North American market, meaning it trades through
the London Fix and goes until the NYSE close at 4 PM EST, and 3) it’s always had
pretty decent and CONSISTENT VIX … not usually too hot nor cold when it comes
to ranges and trading action … the key here, is the total cost to trade it and can
the LP’s give you honest & fair fills … in the past, when Turnkey was around,
getting fair fills was a problem, a big problem … and the spreads were definitely
higher with Turnkey by about 1.5 - 2.0 PIPS … however, since Coinexx has taken
over Turnkey, their spreads are easily below 1 PIP most days … on news of
course, when SHTF they will jack higher, but that happens with everything, not
just FX, and not limited to Coinexx.
Is this “Worldwide Vacation Day” … outside of a little trading in the “Spoos”,
where we’ve just crossed into reversal territory to the downside, nothing else
seems to want to trade at all … FX pairs and crosses simply D.E.A.D. … I’m
watching GBPCAD, and for the last 4+ hours, this cross hasn’t got a 25 PIP range
… what’s going on? … well, outside of nothing! … now a little movement into the
New York afternoon … GBPJPY after hitting a new high for the year a couple of
days ago, is down again, and it’s been a slow walk down the hill ever since
… very tough trading conditions not made any better with Japan being closed.
Over in “Stock Bellies”, a quick feed the Chipmunks at the open [natch], and
also everybody that thinks NVIDIA is gonna take “Stonks” higher … that lasted
about 20 minutes, and since then it’s been a move to new lows, almost straight
down with only very brief rallies … as I stated in previous blogs, I don’t feel
comfortable giving COINEXX volume lots that are necessary to trade the “Spoos”
… I don’t care what they say, we’ll get butchered worse than a fat hog … we can
however trade the DOW30, and that’s what I’m watching … I’d like to see more
range, cuz lately New York session ranges have been awful … the current 20 Day
Range MA for the NY session is over 400 index points, but that is skewed to the
upside by a few big range days [thanks to the FED & CPI], and an awful lot of
shit days … it’s closer to 300 than 400, but no matter, it simply needs more
consistent action minus the nuclear blowups … the spread has been OK, but the
trading action hasn’t … today’s “Trading Ratio” [TR] barely above 3, which is
acceptable [but not ideal], and I’d like to see it somewhat higher above 4
… currently on the daily chart coming into important support around the 32,700
area … if that gives way, it could lead to a very nasty sell off … quite frankly, over
the last few days, I’ve been keeping “powder dry” and not taking the buy signals
in the DOW30 from the algorithm when the Heiken Ashi Smoothed [HAS] has
been pink/red … the gains small, and the red spikes from Hell show up and take it
all away in seconds … pushing the liquidate button on a red spike down in the
DOW30 guarantees a shit fill … how shitty a fill depends on how deep the red
spike, and some of them can get mighty deep … mighty deep! … one thing I
will note, though, is that the HAS does a great job of tracking short term price
behavior … when it’s pink/red, the market has a tough time rallying and stalls
around the pink/red zone of the HAS … likewise, when the HAS is blue, there’s
support and “wind at your back” for rallies on small breaks that turn higher
… when the line is breached and slope color changes, you can get some nasty
m1 moves very quickly.
Right now, U.S. “Stock Bellies” are in the grip of 1) specs being positioned too
long, which leads to selling, 2) lost hope of the Lounge Lizards anytime soon
pausing or pivoting on rates, and 3) somewhat baffling hotter macro economic
numbers that IMHO are pure bullshit … and until this streak lower runs out of
steam on the downside, you got to be very careful in your trading … I will remind
readers, that if you just don’t get whacked in the back “6” of the “88/6/6”
paradigm, you back the ship up to carry away the money … ignore this advice,
and the back “6’ can take months, if not years of gains away faster than Biden’s
brain turning to mush … that’s pretty quick! … historically, what we need to see
is some kind of “capitulation” on the NYSE open, and then prices going higher
into the afternoon and close … so far that’s been completely absent … I don’t
necessarily need to see it before I trade the DOW30, but I would like to see it
happen soon enough to get us out of the back “6” … first, though, we need
better action via conditions, and that starts with CONSISTENT VIX … normal
DOW30 range in the NY session over 450 - 500+, and a TR >4 … no worries, it’ll
be here soon enough!
Meanwhile over in ETHUSD, that market is bedeviled with spikes from Hell that
distort pretty much everything … both up & down it makes no difference … they
come out of nowhere, and have been going nowhere, but if you get caught in any
of them you’re toast … you’ll have to make an enormous additional amount of
trades, AND BE PROFITABLE ON ALL OF ‘EM, just to make up for one trade that
went bat shit crazy [BSC] in seconds or a couple of minutes … and it’s been
happening far too regularly for my taste … again today to the downside by about
$20 - $30 in less than 2 minutes … then goes “Loser Formation” straight
sideways afterwards … this leaves me cold … ICE COLD! … gold & crude oil are
simply dead and at present not worth looking at or bothering with unless you
need losses.
No trades today for the PAMM, but that will change shortly … today was the first
halfway decent day in “Stock Bellies”, and although not ideal, was on the side of
“acceptable” … I have no idea what has caused this shortening of ranges and
dampened VIX … maybe 0DTE options and OPEX, but I doubt it .. given the news
flow, both domestic and foreign, “Stock Bellies” should be exploding with volume
& volatility … and yet, it’s been eerily absent, with only today seeing some pickup
… I don’t think either the “Spoos” or NDX100 is gonna work for us at Coinexx
with the PAMM … 1) I don’t trust them, 2) their CFD sizes are too small, thus
making my order size too large for them to fill fairly and honestly … and I don’t
want to get screwed by these LP thieves on a “big order” [that really isn’t] … the
DOW30 is a different story, and at least so far with Coinexx, my trades have been
OK in terms of fills and latency, and the trade size is normal for the industry at
1 * the index.
Algorithm buy signals in the DOW30 have been excellent, although when ranges
are small and tight profits aren’t nearly the same … you just have to be paranoid
about spikes from Hell and stop runs, and where the spread is … lately [since the
merger with Turnkey], the spread has been a consistent 2 - 3 index points, with
somewhat slow days seeing 2, and more volatile days seeing 3 … hopefully, now
that the DOW30 has broken out of that very tight 3+ week range, we can get back
to normal, and I can resume trading it … the “Profit Yacht” is ready to sail!
… onto tomorrow.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment