So close and yet so far away … it’s been sitting in front of my face for too long
… Captain Obvious would be proud of me, but understanding the importance of
volume flows is the critical element for making money trading … especially short
term trading or scalping, cuz being able to accurately and effectively map those
buying [buying offers] versus those selling [selling bids] tells you everything you
need to know about either “buy fuel” or “sell fuel” and what happens next in
3 … 2 … 1…
I don’t care whatever indicator you want to mention or bring up … before it can
measure anything, somebody or group of somebody’s have got to either come to
the market to buy or sell … their volume over the very short term will be reflected
either in “up ticks” or “down ticks” … all other indicators then take this info and
process it into what the indicator is supposed to measure … there is always lag
… with volume there’s no lag … buying is gonna immediately create “buy fuel”
and selling is gonna immediately create “sell fuel” … the real question involving
trading, is whether or not this market buying or selling is continuing a short term
trend or is going contratrend, and if it’s correcting by how much and when will it
continue … or not continue and start a new trend in the other direction.
To this end, we then need a good trend indicator over the short term, and we have
that in the Heiken Ashi Smoothed [HAS] … an indicator that is good enough to
allow us to either “buy at 1 and sell at 2” [longs], or “sell at 2 and buy at 1”
[shorts] … and it all starts and ends with volume from somebody!
Over the weekend, an interesting article over on ZH from our buds at Dumbberg
… and the data paints a picture of exactly what I have been saying RE the SP500
… namely, while INTER daily vix IS DROPPING, i.e. from day to day close,
confirmed by crappy 20 Day Range MA table values, INTRA daily action has gone
bat shit crazy ]BSC] with reversals, double reversals, and triple reversals all over
the place … and the culprit?? … EASY PEEZEE: 0DTE options … see my
shockingly shocked face that is shocked! … directly below, the link.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zero-expiry-options-highlight-where-real-
What happens when the monster they created decides to not play nice? … who
picks up the pieces some day when tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars
come flowing in, and with no time on the clock, that selling pressure can’t be
met? … the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] DOES NOT sop up selling! … it’s
there to PUNISH AFTER THE SELLING IS OVER by aggressively bidding prices
higher, thus giving nobody a chance to get back in that decided to sell on the
waterfall … so, they ain’t gonna be there! … who then?
It all boils down to “who’s getting their cashews squeezed?”, and by how much,
and has nothing to do with reality as anyone knows it … break it down and it’s all
order flow, volume, and panic … in other words, no rules trading … and if you’re
on the wrong side or trying to pick a top or bottom, it can go wherever the Hell it
wants inside “The Twilight Zone” [TZ] … and that means a lot farther than you
have the stomach or money to outlast the pain … and the next day? … could be
entirely different and moving in the other direction just as fast that got you killed
the day before … makes no sense, and that’s by design … welcome to the casino!
… did you get that lunch buffet coupon?
Here at the criminal NYSE open, we start the day off in the usual way by feeding
the Chipmunks, and those laundering money overnight that need a home … rally
of course, what else is there at the open? … and yes, with some wonderful m1
candles that make ZERO sense unless you view them in the light of what I just
wrote … then it makes perfect sense … an absolute fucking joke of an excuse for
a supposed “market” … I’m trying to give the “Spoos” the benefit of the doubt
here, but it’s getting harder to view this as a “market” and not as a central bank
roulette wheel with crooked and corrupt croupiers … and the only thing keeping
me from not even looking at this shit and simply trading ETH, is the fact that
EVERYTHING flows off of the idiotic “risk on / risk off” [RORO] horseshit going
on in "Stonks", so you can’t ignore it … and the “herky jerky” bid/offer quote flow
tells me at least right at this moment, what’s going on in the “Spoos” isn’t legit
… c’mon fellas, get your shit together.
It’s Noon in New York, and I can hardly believe what I’m seein’ … outside of the
first few minutes of insanity, as money from all over the world is laundered into
its new home, this has been nothing but a walk down the hill with ZERO rallies
… a couple of ill fated attempts, but those got shot down “el quicko mucho”
… the red spikes from Hell having their way today … and all of a sudden the
world wakes up to higher rates? … gimme a fucking break here … cuz what
you’re seein’ is nothing short of a giant cashew squeeze lower from those short
puts, or the put credit spreads … I can almost feel their pain … and if the
“Spoos” break 4000 today, it’s gonna get a whole lot worse … like I said earlier,
who’s gonna buy this shit in a “no rules” environment where anything
… literally anything … can happen to the downside if it starts to pick up steam?
… there is no trading here … what’s this concept of trading you speak?
Welcome to the back of the “88/6/6” paradigm … made infinitely worse by 0DTE
options, and the goal here is to survive … granted, making money is great, but in
the back “6”, you need to survive and not get whacked, understanding that when
rallies come, they come viciously fast but don’t last … meanwhile, the Mrs. & Miss
Gimpy today trading the “Spoos” over at SIMPLE FX, both doing well, but the
downs and small ups come quick and vanish … at 10 * the index, it’s easy to trade
1 - 5 lot volumes … can’t say the same at COINEXX, where I’m terrified of the fill if
I trade 20 - 50 lots volume cuz they are 1 * the index … big diff, and I don’t feel like
being the guy who pays for the little weenies wrapped in bacon at the next LP
party … got to have the wind at my back, and quite frankly today, I don’t see that
in the “Spoos” from the long side … up until a few minutes ago, ETH not doing
much of anything, but with a small rally off the lows below 4010 in the “Spoos”, a
little correlation short covering fire on today’s decline in price is in the works
… quite frankly, I’m a little disappointed in ETH today, cuz I thought there would
be better trading conditions … again, what’s “trading”? … I see walls of buying
and walls of selling in markets, but I don’t see many ups/downs except over the
last few minutes … this is some of the worst “Stock Bellies” trading action you
can ever hope to find and be unlucky enough to sit here and watch it
… ugly, very ugly.
And the problem is, everything else on the board, to some degree or another,
correlates with the idiotic RORO jockeys, so you can’t ignore the “Spoos”, cuz
one way or another you’re trading it whether you want to or not … but if you sell
some market just cuz the “Spoos” are going lower, you’d better hope 1) the
“Spoos” don’t rally, and/or 2) the correlation doesn’t stop … welcome to bullshit!
… and while I’d like to generally be a buyer of ETH, it’s tough sitting here
knowing “Spoos” are going lower and it’s putting a lid on crypto via the “risk off”
horseshit … and outside of one rally, that’s what has happened the entire day
… in a nutshell, this is the problem with correlations and markets, and nobody is
in a mood to buck the risk off trend today … at least not so far … and when
somebody changes their mind, the whole fucking trading world will panic to the
upside in some kind of orgasmic quake of buying … and you might ask where’s
the PPT on a day like today? … until the selling is over and done, you won’t see
‘em … they don’t exist to stop selling, they exist to hurt sellers after they sell by
aggressively bidding prices higher.
Now below 4000, if it stays like this to the close, there might be Hell to pay
overnight and in the morning … the Lounge Lizards won’t be happy ‘til the
“Spoos” crash and burn, which might happen a lot sooner than they would like
to see … not from a range perspective, but from a trading perspective, this is
awful … I mean really awful … might as well be trading corn spreads … an
extremely sad state of affairs you can plop right at the feet of government
Apparatchiks.
No trades today in anything today for the PAMM … I guess you could have just
sold something, closed your eyes and prayed … that would have been a solid
game plan … anything you thought about buying, except for about 10 minutes,
leaves you poorer quickly … it’s called life inside the casino … sometimes, your
roulette numbers just don’t come up, and that’s what this shit has evolved into
… the good news is that tomorrow it could be the opposite and you can’t get a
downtick to save your life to get long … why not? … take away the criminal open,
which as I’ve pointed out numerous times, is only a money laundering exercise
for elites across the world and does not represent any type of “trading” … once
that’s over, this shit dies faster than Biden’s brain … it really is pathetic.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment