20 Day Range MA’s of selected pairs directly below.
While I don’t think USDJPY is going to plummet back to earth as the FED reaches
the limits of their hiking rates, neither do I think USDJPY is going to go skyward
still more … without higher rate differentials between the 10 YR. of the Treasury
versus JGB’s, what’s going to propel ever greater USDJPY levels? … “risk off”
will only drop rates farther … and much like the Trump “reflation” trade in 2016,
where USDJPY went from the 104 level up to 118 in a matter of a few weeks, and
then spent the next 4 years going down slowly, we could be in a similar situation
now with USDJPY.
Quite frankly, if I’m only partially right it’s gonna make for some very tough
USDJPY trading going forward … reversals, double reversals, and most likely
smaller daily ranges than we’re seeing now … and that also spells trouble for
GBPJPY & EURJPY, unless the numerator pairs can pick up the slack … given
the proclivities of both the ECB & BOE, which are nothing more than a large
collection of political hack “fuck ups”, who couldn’t sell ice cream at the beach
and make money on the hottest day of the year, don’t look to them to make any
sense whatsoever in terms of policy execution … always a “day late and a dollar
short”, fighting the last war, a basket of retarded kittens on meth would better
run monetary policy than these Asshats … that might “shake up” the
numerators some, but crosses get much better movements when the
denominator moves, and if the YEN is “chop city”, the crosses will become a
“traders graveyard”, as the trend following crowd gets mauled and eaten up in
the FX meat grinder.
And as Friday’s trading action showed if you were watching it closely, USDJPY
was a literal nightmare of spikes both up & down with ZERO follow through that
mattered … then in the New York afternoon, simply cuz they can, scumbag Wall
Street banks run buy stops before “Thelma & Louise” show up, and it’s the all
too typical “kill shorts, get some specs long on buy signals, then kill longs”,
WTF just happened on a Friday afternoon? … and as I have warned repeatedly,
“scumbaggery & fuckery” goes orbital when afternoons roll around in New York,
Europe closed, and all that’s left are the criminals at JPM, Squid, and the other
virus horde usual suspects, and you might as well have a big red circle on your
back … New York afternoon hunting season is ALWAYS in full swing!
We all know, and have for years, that Japan is a monetary “basket case” … but
the E.U. & Britain ain’t exactly paragons of monetary virtue either … both have
“bigly & yuge” problems, not the least of which are totally stagnant economies,
governments run by Elitist out-of-touch Twits, and in the case of the E.U.,
complete “fragmentation” in the bond market between the “haves” [Germany,
France] and the “have not PIGS” [Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain] … and quite
frankly, the ECB is a bankrupt institution, holding utterly worthless “bond paper”
from the PIGS in the hundreds of Billions of Euros, with LESS THAN ZERO
chances of ever seeing any of it get repaid, other than with new borrowing … and
if you’re wondering why EURUSD can’t get any “traction” to the upside and put in
some multiple daily / weekly “bull runs”, this is the reason … however, like all
dark clouds on the horizon, for traders EURUSD can make a lot of sense to trade
if given the “right” trading conditions … and they are 1) super razor thin bid/offer
spread, 2) super low or NO commissions, 3) a super fast [latency] execution
platform, and 4) ability to chart and run indicators on SUB 1 MINUTE TIME
PERIODS … fortunately for the PAMM, we have all 4.
Generally speaking, I tend to round off “total costs to trade” when calculating
the “Trading Ratio” [TR] … for dollar FX pairs [a couple of crosses] that usually
is very close to 1 PIP … EURUSD is the exception to this, as the spread at
Turnkey is usually in the 0.0 - 0.2 or maybe 0.3 for most of the day … I haven’t
experienced any slippage at all on the platform the PAMM is on now, so if the
“total cost” is under 1 PIP, that means the TR becomes easier to get higher
values … and higher values means it’s a great market to trade … don’t get me
wrong here, there are times when EURUSD can be as bad or worse than USDJPY
in terms of spikes from Hell, both up & down, but lately you’d be hard pressed
to argue anything but the fact that YEN is becoming a “spike nightmare” … and
has also been the case, the bid/offer spread in USDJPY has increased to the
point where it’s about equal to GBPUSD … that means TRIPLE THE COST TO
TRADE … granted, EURUSD has slightly less VIX than either Cable or YEN lately,
but that VIX comes at a very heavy price … given what I see for USDJPY going
forward, now that the markets are definitely sensing a “FED fold” on hiking rates,
and the futures markets are already sensing Q3 - Q4 2022 for rates to go LOWER,
USDJPY isn’t gonna be the “slam dunk higher” rocket ride it’s been in the
March - early June panic we’ve just been through … Japan being the basket
case it is, USDJPY ain’t gonna be going over the cliff lower either, unless the
U.S. goes into a complete economic depression … and that means very choppy
trading … well, if it’s “CHOP” going forward, then the market to be in isn’t
USDJPY, but rather EURUSD … MUCH BETTER LOGISTICAL TRADING
CONDITIONS … so, onto EURUSD as we start the trading week tonight in the
Asian session.
Version 2.1 of the trading algorithm is up and posted over in “DOWNLOAD
LINKS” … the updated version is on page 9 & page 14 … if you’ve already read
the algorithm, simply read the updates online … they aren’t very long and it
takes only a minute or two … onto the week!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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