I get to my screens today about 4:30 AM EST, and before I turn on anything I’m
wondering just what the Hell this train wreck of a currency known as YEN, has
got in store for the world today … and to my surprise, again another century
mark comes and goes as the relentless selling continues unabated day-after-day,
with the usual Apparatchik Morons in Japan spouting bullshit, as if anybody is
listening, as the world simply says, “Sell Mortimer, SELL!” … now today we’re
threatening the 134 level … and it makes you wonder just where the “line in the
sand” is for USDJPY? … 140? … 150+? … YEN has depreciated by OVER 30%+
in the last 26 months … do they really want a Venezuela Bolivar? … and the
inflation this is gonna unleash, cuz Japan imports “Hoover Dam” everything, is
gonna be enormous … what’s that gonna do to the QUADRILLIONS OF DEBT
that gets rolled over via higher interest rates?
It’s almost as if these Dopes have graduated from the “Joe Biden School of
Economics” … what would be any different? … with “Spoos” very quiet
overnight into the New York sunrise, it once again has nothing to do with
“risk on / risk off” [RORO], and everything to do with interest rate differentials
and more importantly where they are headed … and the parabolic train wreck
USDJPY heads down the mountain, and we all know how this ends … just like
every other market that goes parabolic … utter spec destruction … and the one
thing that’s bothering me right now, is that the entire trading world is getting
way too bullish on USDJPY on even the tiniest pullbacks, including the YEN
crosses which are even worse … just remember, not every dog gets to ride
on the fire truck!
And if you ever wondered what full, retarded kittens on meth FOMO looks like,
well here ya go … anything YEN in the denominator in the crosses, and USDJPY
itself … full fledged get me out of YEN at any price .. and it’s not just interest
rate differentials either, you also got to factor in a complete loss of confidence
in the BOJ to do anything right … “Peter Pan” Kuroda is a caricature of himself,
a complete joke that is steering his country to currency destruction via idiotic
uber easy monetary policy, and with it down the road hyperinflation in Japan if
this train wreck isn’t taken off the tracks … people see it and they want out!
Turning to today’s “Slots-A-Rama” slot machines the financial MSM [with a
straight face] calls “markets”, the day is basically over before it begins … the
sun hasn’t even risen in New York, and already USDJPY has a range above its
20 Day Range MA … 2 things to note here that are critically important … 1) the
20 Day Range MA is basically a normal probability distribution, with the value
each week, the high part of the curve … moving away from it by sigmas
[standard deviations], and the probability lessens as you get a range either way
below or way above the value … currently USDJPY this week is at approximately
121 PIPS … today’s range at the NYSE open is almost 200 PIPS, so if you think
the range is gonna be expanded even farther via upside price action, you’re
looking at a very low probability event to make you money … ditto if the range
was 38 PIPS and just sitting there doing NADA … in this scenario, placing any
kind of trade is doing “stupid shit”, cuz you simply have to wait for it to move
… and if it doesn’t? … then you don’t make any trades … 2) the larger the range
over its 20 Day Range MA, the larger the pullback has to be for me to be
interested in taking any buy signal from the algorithm … take any signal too
close to the high and you’re asking for mucho trouble.
I would also note that if you do get the necessary corrective activity, all trades
subsequently done for the day HAVE GOT TO BE SCALPS … you can’t hang on
for bigger gains, cuz the highest probability is that the market goes “chop city”
the rest of the day … unlike what we’ve seen lately in quite a few parabolic
markets, with now YEN joining the “parabolic club”, the premise of the algorithm
is to capture moves AS THE MARKET MOVES TOWARDS IT’S 20 DAY RANGE MA,
or close to it, or maybe slightly higher … it isn’t to come in and go “WTF is this?”
every day and see blown out ranges, thank you very much Chicoms,
Chuckleheads, and of course Mrs. Watanabe & Gal Pals!
You play the cards you’re given, and unless you live on the Pacific Rim [do I have
to move to frickin’ Thailand?], you got no choice but to play via the algorithm
rules if you want to make consistent money … today is a very good example of
what happens when the range for the day blows through the 20 Day Range MA
by a large percentage … when it finally does correct, what’s left but crumbs?
… there are some quick scalps, but if even one of these goes tapioca and turns
tail quickly, where do you draw the line for realizing loss? … cuz unless it’s
gonna be a massive reversal, wherein you get your ass handed to you, you
absolutely know the second you get out, it then resumes the uptrend … now
what? … how many scalps does it take to make it back, or do you think you
can hang on, cuz in retrospect it rallied 25 PIPS and you of course just naturally
assume you would have hung on ‘til the end? … right, not gonna happen!
… only the first bounce off the larger “time” correction [not price] has a high
probability of being profitable, the rest are coin flips.
And since the day was basically over before it began, my only choice was to wait
for a short term top, see price correct lower over a decent amount of time [at
least 15 minutes], then wait for an algorithm buy signal … and we got ONE
… TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … and no, this isn’t the “Up Slightly Fund”, but
remember this is only the third day trading USDJPY, and 2 out of the 3 have seen
blown out ranges, and the other was very close … overall, I’m satisfied with the
platform in terms of fills and latency, although latency could be better … however,
it’s fast enough and the slippage is either ZERO [most] or maybe a tenth of a PIP,
and I know our orders aren’t being held by the scumbag LP bank to screw us
… so far so good, we’re being treated fairly.
Tomorrow sees the ECB interest rate decision … might have an ancillary effect
on USDJPY through the cross, but given recent hawkishness by the
Apparatchiks, don’t be surprised if what appears to be bullish news for EURUSD
turns out to be “buy the rumor, sell the fact” … not prediction’, just sayin’ … onto
tomorrow, and it would be nice to turn on my screens and not see USDJPY with a
massive range at 3 or 4 AM EST … we’ll see … in any event, no matter what
you’re trading, the trading algorithm is “GOLD BARS”, back the Brinks truck up
to the back of your yacht!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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