Yesterday, for a considerable amount of time during the New York session,
USDJPY had a TR of around 2.5, and while I’m not saying that “stinks”, it stinks
… and the one thing noticeable when the TR’s of any pair shrinks, is the fact that
the number of “false positives” increases, right along with some signals that
work beautifully … 2 other things happen as well … 1) the HEMA gets
“out of sync” with the signal generator of TEMA & HULL, and 2) TEMA gets very
“jagged” as 15s candlesticks jump around going nowhere … one of the
drawbacks of releasing the version 2.0 algorithm, is the fact that Netdania
provides no history like you’d get if you paid Trading View $1200 per year
for the privilege.
OK, it’s FREE, and at that price nothing is “perfect”, so I work through it and
notice what might need “tweaking” and what’s solid … otherwise nothing gets
published for many more days & weeks, and nobody wants that … depending on
what market it is you’re trading, the HULL might need to be lengthened … my
best estimate, is that the value for HULL on the 15s is going to be optimal
somewhere between 11 - 19, and that for your market you’re going to have to
fiddle with it, and watch it to figure it out … with multiple dozens of pairs, I’m
not gonna do that, cuz for the PAMM we’re in EURUSD, GBPUSD, & USDJPY
… with occasional trades in EURJPY & GBPJPY [and maybe if Turnkey ever gets
its shit together the DAX40] if they’re priced right … for these pairs, optimal TR
values should be between about 3.5 - 8, with anything over 8 potentially causing
some heartburn from the scumbag bank LP’s as there is a decent chance the
spread goes up & slippage enters the equation … not for certain, but something
to watch closely … but if you’re in another cross or another dollar pair, any of
the stock indices, or even something like gold, you’ll have to start with VALUE
OF 11 IN THE HULL and work from there and spend some days looking at it to
weed out potential “false positives” on trades.
When YEN starts moving, and moving well, quite frankly you can have any of the
values between 11 - 19 for the HULL and the algorithm works exceptionally well
… however, when the TR starts dropping from “chop city” conditions
[like yesterday], a level of 19 seems optimal … this upcoming weekend I’ll make
an update to the trading manual to include this info, and it’ll become version 2.1
… no rewrite, I’ll simply add a paragraph in the appropriate spot of the manual to
update … please remember, though, no matter where I or you put the value of the
HULL, there ALWAYS EXISTS A NORMAL PROBABILITY CURVE AROUND THAT
VALUE … meaning, while we can cut down the number of “false positives” we
can NEVER get rid of all of them.
Turning to today’s shitshow circus inside the world’s largest casino, not to
disappoint cuz it doesn’t, USDJPY a complete clusterfark of either FOMO [panic
buying cuz of the fear of missing out] or panic selling … today both as rates going
down in the U.S. over depression fears, AND “risk off” [at least initially] cuz the
“Spoos” were going lower … Spicoli up at the Clown College today for testimony,
so another propaganda piece we gotta put up with & digest … and through it all,
versus the other FX pairs, YEN is running “helter skelter” while all of the others
are walking quietly to parts unknown.
Quite frankly, there are only 2 scenarios to get the YEN to rally with any “legs”
… 1) a worldwide depression, led by China & the U.S., and rates fall dramatically
… and in this scenario, the FED purposefully hikes rates aggressively into
economic weakness to hasten the economic onslaught & destruction, and
2) the BOJ gives up on yield curve control [YCC} and starts to hike rates … right
now the way the lay of the landscape looks, I’d have to go with option #1.
And so like almost every day ending in “Y”, USDJPY is either a “rates” OR a
“risk off” story … there ain’t anything else … the other pairs got their own
problems, but their central banks aren’t as outwardly idiotic & stupid publicly
as the BOJ … and with the “Vix Genie” out of the bottle, wherein she ain’t goin’
back in under any circumstances I can foresee, USDJPY if the spread can hold
decently, is the hands down VIX winner for a good long while … thanks FED &
super thanks “Peter Pan” Kuroda for being such a complete Fool.
With rates getting crushed cuz markets are looking ahead to the upcoming
depression, and know with certainty that Spicoli & the other Lounge Lizards
will tighten right into an economic hurricane creating “demand destruction”
… yes, making everybody poorer is their idiotic answer to fighting the inflation
bogeyman they unleashed with such “glee” when creating the world’s biggest
financial bubbles the last 2 years up to a couple of months ago … as a result we
could be looking at USDJPY in store for some rather ugly retracement activity if
the 10 YR. Treasury rate somehow gets under 3% and keeps falling … an awful
lot of very long position holders in USDJPY, AS WELL AS THE YEN CROSSES,
might be in for some rough times this summer … dunno yet, too early to tell
… the first domino to fall would have to be the 135.500 level, followed rather
quickly with a move under 135.000 … that would make a Helluva lot of longs very
nervous, and if that level didn’t get taken back rather quickly, I’d say the
probability of Kuroda getting bailed out by a world depression, just got a
lot higher!
Today’s trading activity in USDJPY can be summed up quite easily … every small
break bought aggressively causing large, instant spikes in price higher that got
faded like a cheap suit in sunshine … rinse, repeat the entire day from near the
European open to the New York afternoon … with a current 20 Day Range MA of
over 150 PIPS, seeing a “smallish” range of barely 100 PIPS from the tips was
disappointing … as rates got monkey hammered, USDJPY tried to go lower but
found buyers everywhere … a couple of occasions saw sell stops get hit, but
overall it was 4 steps down, 3 up the entire day … “I’d describe it as a
“chopfest” with some range and a light bias lower” … just past Noon EST, so the
day is far from over, but I’d have to say unless rates somehow go lower still, the
pressure will build on USDJPY to go higher … just too many factors against the
BOJ and YEN right now … quite frankly, though, just a bullshit day with some
very, very choppy & vicious conditions, both on down as well as up spikes.
A shipload of algorithm signals today, too bad most of them got nixed cuz the
trend was lower the entire day except for a few minutes … only one algorithm
buy signal in USDJPY, TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY.
Now that I’ve had more time to watch USDJPY on the Netdania 15s chart, I’ve
“tweaked” some of the parameter settings I think will optimize signals as well
as performance … as I said earlier, with multiple dozens of pairs available on the
MT4 and/or MT5, I can’t watch and study all of ‘em … this upcoming Sunday on
the blog update, I’ll have version 2.1 with those “tweaks” as an addition where
appropriate in the manual text … and sure enough, now that Europe is closed,
here comes the USDJPY rally with rates doing NADA … can’t move for shit until
the European banks close, then it’s the scumbags from Wall Street that take over
… same old same old with these assholes, and it’s why I absolutely hate to trade
New York afternoons in FX … it’s pretty much “scumbaggery & fuckery” in any
trading day ending in “Y” … just a reminder, there is no history on the Netdania
platform, and it only goes back a couple of hours, so I don’t have the luxury of
spending research time looking at past action … it all has to come in real time
… which isn’t a problem really, and it sure beats paying $1200 per year cuz it’s
FREE!
In any event, I think the “tweaks” will greatly help performance going forward
… we’ve been fortunate this last week cuz we’ve seen some good
up / down / sideways action, and it allows me to see how the algorithm reacts
under very dramatically different scenarios … and for a professional trader, you
can’t be a “one trick pony”, only making money in one particular market
environment … you got to be there day-in-day-out, come bull or bear … which is
why I usually [with rare exceptions] will stick to one side of the market or the
other … being either long or short brings exactly the same problems to the table
for a trader … if you constantly switch, what you’re really telling me is that you
know, or think you know, which way this crap is headed … and guess what, you
don’t! … the key is, can you make money while being wrong!? … that doesn’t
sound right, but it’s accurate … if I’m usually always getting long, can I make
money on down days by being long? … or if I’m always short a pair, can I make
money on days the pair is going higher? … if the answer is no, then you got a
problem, a very big problem! … I’d be willing to bet that nobody could even get
51% of all days right … with all of the reversals, double & triple reversals we see
now, you’re gonna be playin’ “Whack-A-Mole” trying to outguess the market
pair you’re trading … by sticking to one side or the other [makes no difference
to me], you are GUARANTEED to have days where you are in “sync” with the
market and the algorithm makes more money than the FED can print!
If the razor thin spread holds at Turnkey in USDJPY, and we usually get that,
although when the “Trading Ratio” [TR] gets above 8 things have the real
potential to start to get interesting with blown out spreads & some minimal
slippage thrown into the equation, I’d rather trade USDJPY than Cable [GBPUSD]
or EURUSD … and the reason is simple … USDJPY has a totally predictable,
idiotic central bank [BOJ] that does “stupid shit” practically 100% of the time,
and has done it for over 30 years! … by any metric you want to name, Japan is a
fiscal & monetary nightmare, with a debt / GDP ratio of about 270%, and a
national debt in the QUADRILLIONS OF YEN [trillions now added weekly!] … all
that with the highest median age population of anywhere in the world, and one
of the lowest birth / death ratios as well … a country that’s spiraling towards
death, it’s just a matter of time … quite frankly, IMHO no level of USDJPY is
too high!
Even with today’s subdued range, about 30% UNDER the 20 Day Range MA,
trading action had a relatively decent TR … most of the day saw 5.5- 7.0 … too
bad it was all up/down in microseconds and the market went relatively nowhere
… even if the HEMA had been bullish, there weren’t any corrections of moves
that went anywhere … it was all one way or the other, mostly in panic mode
… still, with the very light changes I’ve made for USDJPY in the algorithm
parameters, if we see a day like this again [and we most certainly will], we’ll
pick up some signals and have more trades … onto tomorrow!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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