clust“Oh for the good ‘ol days when everything went up!”
Can’t wait to see what “hocus pocus” the Lounge Lizards dream up this
afternoon, to remedy the clusterfark mess they created when they decided to
fund the biggest financial bubbles of all time … some days it’s very hard to
discern who’s dumber than a box of rocks … 1) the BOJ, 2) the ECB, 3) the FED,
4) anything Biden says or does, or 5) it’s a tie cuz they’re all FUBAR … MY
MONEY goes on #5.
Everything is going swimmingly isn’t it? ,,, “unexpectedly”! … retail sales “MISS”
… manufacturing “MISS” … inflation soaring … right now, I’d bet heavily that
we’re already in a “Biden Recession”, about to be a “depression” as the Lounge
Lizards are set to hike rates by the largest amount since the early 1990’s … but
hey, it’s all Putin’s fault, or big oil, right? … 81 million votes, huh? … you people
that voted for this senile criminal are getting everything you deserve “HARD”
… next time, if there is a “next election”, don’t be a dumb ass.
I get to my screens today around 4:30 AM EST, and I’m wondering if it’s
“rock & roll” or “sleepytime” waiting for the FED … it has been anything but
“sleepy”, and quite frankly I only hope FX can keep this up, and the “Vix Genie”
stays pissed off well into the foreseeable future … for the last 3 - 4 hours+, the
“Trading Ratio” [TR], which if you missed yesterday’s blog post go read it if it’s a
new term for you, has been about 8 for USDJPY & for EURUSD it’s currently
running “hot” at about 10! … ECB news, and an emergency meeting, and how
they are dealing with “fragmentation” [think PIGS] in terms of bond yields the big
story here, so I doubt it stays this high, but nevertheless, EURUSD is “smokin”
right now pre FED … EURJPY running around 7 but has spiked some, and
GBPJPY running around 6 for the morning … ALL seeing good trading pre FED.
I’m hesitant going “full retard basket of kittens on meth” trading cuz it’s FED
day … and what that means, is that it brings in flows that aren’t usually seen
cuz of position squaring … and with today’s interest rate decision carrying a very
big importance to the market, and with the “bigly & yuge” rise in USDJPY seen
the last 2 - 3 weeks, these flows have the potential to be large and very disruptive
… to a minor degree we’ve already seen that … for the most part, USDJPY
following a very close correlation to the 10 YR. Treasury yield … so far, trading
action is a lot more active than I thought it would be.
At the London Fix right now, and in USDJPY trading action within the last half hour
has cooled considerably … some disappointment with the ECB as their
“emergency meeting” failed to give details on what they’re gonna do about
“fragmentation” going forward … trust me, they’re “winging it” and have no clue
beyond floating trial balloons with banks to see if something sticks … LaGarde is
about as dimwitted as Biden & Spicoli put together, so don’t expect concrete
details anytime soon … this is what “diversity” hires gets you … in any event, it’s
led to some greater trading action to the downside in EURUSD as we move into
the witching close of Europe at the London Fix … and with this disappointment
over fragmentation RE bond yields of the strong northern members of the E.U.,
versus the literal deadbeats of the south E.U., EURJPY becomes ever more
dangerous to trade and opens itself to some serious whipsaw action … like I
said before, it’s tough to know which Apparatchik central bank is the bigger
“fuck up” … both at the ECB and the BOJ you wouldn’t hire any of ‘em to mow
your lawn … they are absolutely useless & worthless rolled into one … and it’s
why when I first heard some ECB Apparatchik on Monday mention fragmentation,
I immediately foresaw potential trouble here for this pair … not so with either
USDJPY or EURUSD, and right now while it’s close, “Peter Pan” Kuroda & his
crew of “yes men” Apparatchiks have taken the lead in being “insane” … quite
frankly, outside of the ‘08 financial crisis that saw all interest rates go to ZERO,
I can’t think of another time USDJPY had so clear of a “fun-durr-mentals” trend
going for it, unless you go back to the 1980’s, when the G7 via “The Plaza
Accord” wanted a sharply higher YEN … this time around, everything the BOJ
does SCREAMS “Sell Mortimer, SELL!”, AND EVERY WEEK SEES THEM GET
CRAZIER & CRAZIER PRINTING MORE YEN TO PROP UP LOW BOND YIELDS
… what can’t go on, won’t go on, and when this “Hoover Dam” breaks, there’s
gonna be water EVERYWHERE!
From an algorithm trading perspective, what I’ve done is split the algorithm of
any market into 2 camps … 1) normal to moderately higher VIX, which is a TR
of < 2.5, with the caveat that if the TR goes to 1 or below it can’t be traded, and
2) moderately higher to high VIX, which is a TR > 2.5 … all of you should have a
daily chart up on your screens with a HIGH & LOW 20 PERIOD SMA, which the
difference between the two gives the 20 Day Range MA for any given day, and a
HIGH & LOW 60 PERIOD SMA, which when the chart is switched to m1, will give
the latest 60 minute reading of the average m1 range for the pair.
The 20 Day Range MA gives a good picture of ranges, and when to be cautious of
taking signals near the high or low of the day when the MA exceeds its average,
but it doesn’t really give any idea what’s happening minute to minute or second to
second … for that you need the TR … and when appropriate, and the TR is above
2 and hopefully 2.5, use Netdania 15s charts, HULL 11 PERIOD, TEMA 8 WITH 0.2
SMOOTHING, & CCI OF 8 … as I stated yesterday, Netdania doesn’t have VIDYA in
their library of indicators, but the HULL is very, very close especially at lower
period values, so we really aren’t losing anything by using HULL on the 15s chart
… unless trading conditions fall off a cliff, it’s gonna be tough to see a TR of < 2.0
going forward, but if we do, simply use the manual settings … this upcoming
weekend, I’ll be upgrading the trading manual to “Version 2.0” to incorporate all
of the Netdania information along with higher volatilities … so it boils down to a
pretty simple scenario … if the market you want to trade has a TR of 1 or less,
leave it alone and find greener pastures … if the TR is < 2 - 2.5, use the original
manual settings … and if the TR is > 2.5, use the 15s chart with the settings I
outlined above … and the higher the TR, the greater your opportunities of making
money via profitable trades CONSISTENTLY … my only caveat about this last
point would be markets like Nat Gas, crude oil, and/or gold & silver … all 4 have
an historical history of being nasty as Hell on stops, along with some very
vicious moves out of nowhere on news … if you’re a scalper, “Stock Bellies” &
specifically FX is the place to be for more consistent, RELATIVELY safer
MARKETS TO TRADE … choose wisely.
With this last piece of the trading puzzle in place, and I’m referring to using the
15s charts via Netdania, with indicators, and then using your MT4 platform for
order entry and the bigger picture of the m1 timeframe which shows the HULL
200 EMA, I’m finally at the finish line! … maybe it gets better than this, but I don’t
see how … our execution time is in the ballpark of 10ms - 30ms, I’m experiencing
ZERO slippage from quoted bid/offer, we’re paying ZERO COMMISSIONS, and our
USDJPY spread is usually between 0.0 - 0.3 PIPS … and so far, I have to give
kudos to Turnkey … now if they could ever get their CFD’s to be like this, then
they’d have the perfect package … give them time maybe, and we’ll see … so far,
that’s the only needed improvement they could work on, and maybe they are
… since they don’t consult me [I know, stupid right?], we’ll just have to wait and
find out in the weeks / months ahead … but for now, this is awesome … and for
those of you who have read the manual, digested my blogs on the “volatility split”
I have described the last few days, and gotten everything up and running, either
on a demo or live, you can see the awesome power of the algorithm at work, and
just how well it models price behavior, and more importantly where the turns are
for going higher and lower … and how about that HULL 200 EMA for support &
resistance on the m1?
As I said earlier, I am loath to pretend it’s not FED day, and just go do what I would
call “normal trading” … I don’t think it’s prudent or wise to do that, when potential
flows could blindside the shit out of you, and the closer we get to 2 PM EST, the
worse those flows could potentially be … with about 3 hours to go to detonation,
I won’t do anymore potential trades until we’re post FED, if then.
Onto the madness! … well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … 75 bps hike like
expected … meh, for 5 minutes only the scumbag LP banks win … 10 YR. U.S.
Treasuries now starting to head higher, not exactly a surprise … Spicoli presser
in 30 minutes, and here’s where the potential fireworks are … how can he put his
foot in his mouth today?
15 minutes later it’s a non event [so far] … Dear “Peter Pan” Kuroda: You’re on
your own, we’re not protecting your Yen from going to much higher levels
… with love, Spicoli. And with that bit of love making out the window, here’s a
new post link from ZH echoing the obvious I’ve been pointing out here for
weeks on end.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-man-standing
More bullshit from Spicoli, and I’m amazed anybody listens to this Doofus … like
Biden, has he ever been right about anything? … now says he “expects”
inflation to flatten or cool after 2 more hikes … uh huh, sure it will … in any event,
I’m glad to see USDJPY go lower some, as 10 YR. Treasuries back off some … I
really don’t want to see a parabolic rise in USDJPY cuz we all know what that
means at the end … time for some relief rallies in risk assets to get the
“Chumps” back in before the next leg down.
Multiple buy signal algorithm trades pre FED today in USDJPY … TURNKEY
PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … with this crap out of the way [FED], and multiple days
with trades and excellent fills & latency, volumes and number of trades will
increase starting with tomorrow’s trade … GiddyUp!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my
own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
No comments:
Post a Comment