“Uh Oh! … time for a “big girl panties” check! … Yup, OK!”
If markets don’t keep you humble, nothing ever will … and last week we saw shit
I’ve never seen before in FX, and I’ve been around since the beginning of modern
financial markets that started in the mid 1970’s - early 1980’s … last week I
showed the “quadruple reversal” in the European session for EURJPY … never
seen anything like this … in addition, though, we got a “triple reversal” [at the
same time] in GBPUSD … that M30 candlestick chart directly below, with
commentary.
click on ANY chart or table to enlarge
I’ve never seen a dollar pair have a “triple reversal” during the FX day, much less
confined to an 8 hour period that coincides with the European session from open
to close … not saying with 100% certainty, but I don’t ever recall seeing it, and
quite frankly my “big girl panties” haven’t been this “ruffled” since the great
October 1987 crash in stock index futures … all the result from Spicoli’s J-Hole
speech … wait, wut?! … yea, no shit “wut”, cuz in the history of trading there have
been a whole lot more important & earth shattering events, than this Doofus
spitting out bullshit from Wyoming … and it’s this one that markets go completely
bat shit crazy and set new records of chaotic insanity? … OK, well I’ve for sure
seen it all now [until next week or month when the proverbial freight train down
the mountain, out of control and filled with plutonium, plunges off the tracks].
And quite frankly & I got no problem telling people this, it “shook me up some”
… no, it didn’t make me a “deer in headlights”, but at the same time when I see
shit that’s never happened before, it makes me 1) very cautious, and
2) wondering when the next shoe drops for more of the same … AND THIS IS
IMPORTANT! … this is all a manifestation of central bank manipulation attempting
to control volatility and ranges in FX since 2015 … and when even they realize
they’ve lost control and SHTF, they back away and VIX & IVIX literally explodes in
their stupid, hubris filled faces … and then to make matters worse, they sit back
and then say, “hey, no worries, we have the solution”! … FFS! … the revolution
can’t come fast enough to see these Dipweeds hanging by their ankles from trees.
As a result of all of this, late last week I decided to sort of revamp the Sunday
blog, and instead of focusing on one particular FX pair, give the table of the most
popularly traded markets on the MT4, whether futures or CFD’s, and list IVIX
INDEX levels for these markets so people in the PAMM / MAM can see & compare
volatility levels and UNDERSTAND why I do what I do … directly below, the IVIX
INDEX levels, and please read the notes.
It’s important to note, that I have leveled the playing field for these markets so the
numbers are comparable to each other, but I want to emphasise that when you
compare markets outside of the space they trade in, you have to be cognizant of
bid/offer spreads AND slippage … none more so than in stock indices, where if
you go past more than a 2 lot volume CFD, the slippage exponentiates quickly to
horrendous levels … sure, the NDX100 & DAX30 look great on the surface, and if
you’re trading a 1 lot volume CFD, I don’t blame you for trading these markets
… but they have ZERO LIQUIDITY, simply cuz the scumbag LP banks or HFT’s
pretending to be a “liquidity provider”, are nothing of the sort … they don’t have
to make an honest market, and at bigger volumes than a 1 lot or 2 lot, they most
assuredly won’t … I have listened to all of the lies & bullshit they have promised
over the months & years, and guess what? … right, it’s ALL bullshit & lies … they
will tell you anything to get you to continue to punch the buy/sell button so you
trade and they can steal more money from you … so, unless you’re willing to trade
futures, emini’s or e micro mini’s [PAMM / MAM aren’t allowed to trade futures],
there isn’t any hope ANYWHERE from any of the offshore brokerage houses that
offer CFD’s … they all use the same scumbag banks and/or HFT’s [BlackRock,
Citadel, and/or Virtu], so you will suffer the same results no matter where you go.
Looking at the metals, you’ve just entered another universe of terribly rotten
bid/offer spreads AND unbelievable slippage … quite frankly, the message here
from the “liquidity providers” [hang on while I puke … OK, better now] is simple
… “we’re not gonna let you scalp and “pick us off” during the day zillions of
times … that’s our job for you! … so, you’re gonna need at least $1.00 to a $1.50
gain from your position to insure a profit when you click the liquidate button, cuz
we’re gonna widen the spread and throw in “triple fuck you” slippage cuz we can
… don't like that? … too bad, them’s the rules”.
That puts us solely in the FX space, where last week my biggest disappointment
was in seeing Turnkey basically double the bid/offer spread in GBPCHF right out
of the gate on Sunday night and never looking back towards a spread of 1 PIP… I
dunno, whaddaya do? … EURGBP this past week another big disappointment with
severely restricted ranges … the Yen crosses came alive, but so what? … sure,
you get to take the dollar out of the FX equation, but when they all move in the
same direction, the crosses suffer and the dollar pairs shine … only if the YEN
comes alive again can the crosses be counted on in the same breath as the dollar
pairs … is YEN volatility coming back? … I’ll believe it when I see it, and until then
won't believe it will … the BOJ says [as if they’d tell the truth, but whatever]
nothing is gonna change with Abe’s resignation … only time will tell.
Looking closely at the IVIX INDEX tables, my “mi culpa” is simply this … “the fog
of “never seen this before” got in the way of clear judgement on Thursday &
Friday, and I should have been making a fortune in GBPUSD … instead, I’m
jumping around looking at dollar pairs and assorted crosses, and clearly the IVIX
INDEX levels are in favor of trading Cable over anything else in the FX space … in
any metric you want to look at, during the entire week and over different time
frames, Cable beats the pants off any other pair, and with a bid/offer spread AT
OR UNDER 1 PIP, the only other pairs that offer this are EURUSD, EURGBP,
EURJPY, & USDJPY … everything else is GREATER THAN 1 PIP for a bid/offer
spread … only EURJPY comes close, but even it lags badly when compared
simply to Cable levels … so, I get to sit and eat a big helping of humble pie while
markets move, the algo shines, and I sit … opportunity lost, but opportunity is
infinite, so buckle up the “big girl panties” [making sure they’re clean & freshly
washed], and move onto Monday and the start of the week in Cable”.
… until tomorrow … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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