“When you live in a “Humpty Dumpty” world, you are here!”
“Humpty Dumpty”, a great metaphor for the clueless Twits at the FED, ECB, &
BOJ … and after Humpty had fallen off his perch, “all of the kings”s horses & all
of the king’s men, couldn’t put Humpty together again” … and so shall it be with
the present day financial system … I used the graphic from an article today over
on ZH, the link directly below.
All of which brings me back to trading … and while I’m not going to give away the
specifics of my new e-book, there are underlying concepts that cannot be ignored
if you want to be successful trading, and/or if you want to make a career out of it
… these should be obvious to most of my readers, but clarifying them gets you to
focus on them … they are, in no particular order of importance cuz they’re ALL
important, 1) trading is a “game” of probability wave functions … there is no
“Holy Grail” or 100% guaranteed winners … in short, you’re the “casino” to a
bunch of wannabes, and you MUST be one step ahead of them. 2) You cannot
buy rallies and/or sell breaks and expect to survive … your account will get
ground down into dust if you do. 3) You absolutely must have the LOWEST COST
TO TRADE available to anybody on the planet, so that your “cost of doing
business” is inconsequential to your trading success, no matter how small or
large your account is. 4) Your market of choice MUST HAVE ADEQUATE IVIX
[intraday volatility] … without IVIX, everything else is meaningless. 5) You
absolutely must liquidate “spikes” in your profit direction when they occur, and
not get overly greedy. 6) Whatever your trading model is, whether you adopt my
theories and methods or develop your own, you must adopt your “thinking”
about the market in terms of the algorithm or trading model, and nothing else
… in other words, wrap your head around the algorithm and what it is saying
about the market, and leave bias and opinion to those who lose on a regular
basis. And finally 7) find the best brokerage house there is to get you ALL OF
THE ABOVE, including the lowest margins, deposit / withdrawal in BTC or other
crypto if you desire, minimum or NO KYC, and most importantly LP’s that treat
you fairly.
And this brings me “back to the future” … and while the coronavirus is shining a
very bright light on the systemic failures of the FED, and government in general,
don’t think for a minute that these Twits aren’t getting ready to literally throw
money from helicopters … not to you & me of course, but to scumbag banks and
Wall Street in general … and that leaves the gold market as one of the only
markets going forward that makes any sense from a “trading” perspective.
This last week, nothing has made me happier than to see Turnkey and their LP’s
finally … and hopefully it is “finally” … finally make a tight and fair market in
XAUUSD, and abandon the ridiculous slippage nightmare that has bedeviled this
market for a long time … I’m fairly sure, new LP’s helped immensely … as little
as 4 years ago, the very best XAUUSD bid/offer spread was about 35 cents, and
most houses were at 50 cents, and even then slippage was a nightmare … now
we’re consistently at 10 - 16 cents at more than a few houses, and RT
commissions at Turnkey are about 3 cents per OZ. … nobody expects the 10
cents per OZ. spread in the futures market, but if you think futures are tight at
that spread consistently, I got news for you, cuz they ain’t … fact is LBMA
XAUUSD is far bigger than the COMEX futures contract, and pricing there drives
futures.
Bottom line though, is that this market has matured to the point where it’s
1) widely available in the offshore brokerage world at excellent spreads
[commissions are another story, so it pays to check it out first], so if houses want
to keep trading business they must remain competitive, AND 2) gold is easily
understood by everybody and is popular among the public, although U.S.
Sheeple remain collectively clueless and uninformed … but along with this
comes another revelation.
And that revelation is that, along with crypto like BTC, gold has major forces at
work that fly in the face of government fiat and shitbox institutions like the FED,
ECB, & the BOJ … in other words, math is about ready to take over the world and
that surely heightens the awareness of gold & crypto … the question then
becomes, “OK, but can I get the necessary ingredients I need to make consistent
money in this”? … a month or two ago, especially for U.S. citizens or residents, I
would have said it’s gonna be tough cuz as most know the US government does
not allow XAUUSD trading by any brokerage house that is domiciled in the US,
and about 98% of the world’s offshore brokerage houses do NOT accept US
clients … now however, mostly cuz of crypto, not simply just cuz of the changes
at Turnkey, there are at least 6 - 10 places that are highly competitive for the
trading biz of XAUUSD … it’s not clear to me if this is cuz of the LBMA wising up,
or industry people waking the fuck up an smelling the coffee, or maybe a
smattering of both, but bottom line is it’s a fact of biz now … and I know this to be
the case cuz the corrupt CME now offers “micro futures” contracts in gold, which
are 10 OZ. contracts, cuz they feel threatened by the offshore community … and
just for reference, yesterday, the “micro futures” in gold traded 31,624 contracts
… most of that volume, I’m assuming, comes from small CTA’s and/or small
institutions, cuz you’d have to be literally insane to trade inside the US today if
you’re an individual [and you should know why without me saying so].
Add it all up, and gold trading has “evolved”, and what we have as a big
advantage, is knowing you can kiss any house off if they stray from the
mainstream … and bottom line without saying so, I think this is at the heart of the
change at Turnkey in regards their new LP’s, their relatively new “Global Live”
trading platform, and their behind the scenes insistence on not losing further
business in this market … they pay a shipload of fees to the LBMA members for
access to their servers, and that means you got to have people trading it … I
don’t give a shit how greedy you are, that greed won’t mean anything if nobody
trades your XAUUSD and it just sits there … they know it, and we now know it,
so might as well make the best of the situation by making it the best it can be
and everybody wins … that’s where we’re at now … let’s hope it stays like this!
Looking at gold today, so far it’s an “inside day” as things get started this early
A.M. … feels like the market is just resting … I will note that over the last couple
of days, there have been some “fat fingers” that have come in and dropped price
from $5 - $8 per OZ. within a minute … and these have been bought aggressively
seconds later … I don’t see this as some sort of manipulation lower by the FED,
as much as I see it allowing bullion banks to cover shorts and even the books
… think about what would happen to price if one of the major players like JPM,
Barclays, or HSBC suddenly went the way of Bear Stearns cuz their shorts got
out of control and the market kept rising … say goodnight baby, we’d be off to
the races in true gap style higher … of course, the “Rally Protection Team”
[RPT] doesn’t mind if your sell stop got hit off, cuz more than likely a scumbag
bullion bank bought it … most days, gold hasn’t been correlating very well with
stocks, but when SHTF like it has this week, suddenly traders are peeking at
stocks for clues … do yourself a favor, and don’t get sucked into this trap.
For the most part, since Europe opened, gold has been in rather mild $7 - $8
range, with trips up/down to the outer edges in the infamous “Flying Wedge of
Death” [FWD] pattern that kills “MoMo” traders like garlic or sunlight are to a
vampire … quiet, very quiet … how long does this last? … and against this
backdrop, the FED is hellbent on taking the US into NIRP and negative interest
rates … and that is bullish as all get out for gold going forward … rates can
never, ever go significantly higher ever again, cuz if they do the math says the
game is over, and trust me no FED Twit wants to see that on his/her watch.
Imagine gold with $100+ ranges for the day, M1’s that average $5+ the entire day,
and the market going $10 - $20 up/down in seconds … or how about any FX pair,
with 1,000 PIP ranges, etc. … well welcome to stock indices, and quite frankly I
want no part of this FED induced “shitshow circus” they are responsible for
… this is fucking insanity, watching bid/offer quotes go hundreds of DOW30
index points in seconds and/or minutes, only to stop on a dime and reverse with
a vengeance … and once again today, the PPT just has to pump stocks up at the
open, and then comes the “Thelma & Louise” ride down, and sets the tone for
the day … thanks, no thanks, I don;t feel like playing when conditions get this
bad and chaotic … quite frankly, if the SP500 breaks 3000 tomorrow on the
downside, and starts free falling from there, we’re looking at a 1929 type of
market crash. And with the way the news flow is going, no stock index is safe.
There is some really “squirrelly” shit going on in gold today … bullion dealers
using every trick in the book to keep price from rallying, and once again today
somebody’s “fat finger” goes hunting and sends mystery tick lows into the mix
that get bought up quicker than you can blink your eyes … the FED doing
everything under the sun to bail bullion banks out of their massive short
positions … problem is, all breaks are being aggressively bought by central
banks and everybody else … even if you subscribe to “fun-durr-mentals”, there
isn’t anything on the horizon to give gold “legs” to the downside … we’re on our
way to NIRP & a government default on debt sometime in 2024 if rates don’t go
negative, and both the ChiComs & Ruskies are buying gold hand over fist
… simply put, it makes for great trading.
I didn’t do any trades today for the Turnkey PAMM / MAM, as I am transitioning
back over to gold, and putting stock indices on the back burner … it’s gonna be
a long time before traders recover from the total “ass beating” they’ve taken this
week … the BTFD at all costs crowd has been taken to the cleaners and most
likely won’t be back anytime soon … that means you can kiss the NDX100 off,
cuz it’s gonna be a while … and while the “88/6/6” paradigm most likely still is in
play, it’s gonna be a lot more unforgiving & tougher than before … and these
straight freight train moves up/down definitely don’t help matters. Quite frankly,
it is not “trader friendly” and it might be a while before the indices see any kind
of sustained rally and/or good trading conditions … what we’ve this last week is
horrible.
The gold algorithm today did extremely well, and once you get the e-book and
read it, you’ll know why … looking forward to getting back to gold, starting with
tonight’s Asian session and I’ll take it from there … until tomorrow mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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