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Thursday, October 24, 2019

WHY ARE WE UP HERE?

“Please meet the DOW30 and don’t piss her off!”

As somebody who has been around markets for a very long time, it’s simply
amazing to see this levitation act performed almost daily in the stock indices
… none more so than the DOW30, where if you’re not performing well in the
index, they’ll simply replace you with another company that will … but aside
from that, economic stats, even the lying ones from the Dept. of Unicorns &
Fairy Tales, show a dramatically weakening world & domestic economy
… practically everything you can measure is down, and it’s worse overseas
… and yet, for all the “the sky is falling” articles of the world going down the
rabbit hole, here we are within a few hundred points of an all-time high in the
DOW30 … how the hell does this happen?

To answer that is easy … MANIPULATION … 1) the “Plunge Protection Team”
[PPT] via the FED, which buys every single break … “oh sure, they’ll let you sell
and take it down a little, but when you’re done they will make you look like a fool
on the way back up in minutes as they manipulate bids higher” … 2) corporate
buybacks … where else can you jack the stock higher by not doing anything but
simply reducing the float of your stagnant stock? … 3) QE by the FED … where
do you think the billions go when the FED does QE, when the treasury issues
debt, the big banks buy it, and then turn right around within minutes or days and
sell it to the FED at PREARRANGED HIGHER PRICES … does anybody in John Q.
Public see any of that? … hell no, it goes right into the stock market.

The U.S. stock indices are right now, and have been since February 2016, a
“88/6/6” paradigm model where 88% of the time the market goes up, 6% of the
time it goes sideways, and 6% of the time it gets “monkey hammered” … go back
into the past further and it’s “80/10/10”, which only means the manipulation is
stronger now than it ever has been since 1987, and with the “baby boomers”
retiring and their private pensions vastly underfunded [go ask one of the 80,000
GE retirees what just happened], the FED has no choice to prop stocks higher to
meet the trillions needed for retirement checks … or bail them out … propping
stocks is cheaper.

Name for me another market that has this “bias” in favor of one side of the
trading equation? … nope, you can’t and it’s not even close … there isn’t
anything else.Throw all of this into today, where the news flow can’t be any worse
for stocks, other than war or some other calamity of epic proportions, and it
makes you sit up and ask, “WTF is going on, cuz none of this makes any sense
whatsoever”! … NEWSFLASH: “It’s never made any sense, and that’s the point
… by definition, it’s not supposed to make sense, cuz if it did, smart guys would
take away all the money … you want to know what is rarer than smart guys?
… it’s disciplined guys who could care less about the smart guys”!

This just in … Trump says the FED is “derelict in their duties” … stocks tank
… later on, British PM wants new elections Dec. 12 … stocks tank cuz of new
elections in Britain … “sure, let’s talk “makes sense”. And if it wasn’t for these 2
specific “events” today, I doubt the DOW30 would have moved 30 points … it
only moved about 80 points the first 16 ½ hours,, and then came the Trump tweet
… new high and then new lows within 30 minutes, all “speed of light … crickets”
… then we drift like a log on a lake until Boris drops his election ploy … down
goes Frazier ... and now it’s back up, and the familiar “Flying Wedge of Death”
[FWD] makes another appearance to kill traders … meanwhile, over in algorithm
land we got NADA … given the rules and the setup, just not in the cards when
lightning strikes and then trading goes dead … if I get a signal I’ll take it, and if I
don’t I won’t, simple as that.

Take away Trump & Boris, and today is a complete non-event for the stock
indices … FWD in full glory, and when I see this, I back away knowing algo
signals will be few and far between if at all … and so far it’s been a complete bust
for the day. Mid afternoon and something better happen soon, or it’s on to
tomorrow.

OK market, call my bluff! … it did, and therefore I’m done for the day … if it got
any slower we’d put the markets on a respirator … Traders Course [TC] info
coming tomorrow. Onto Friday! … until tomorrow mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!  

-vegas


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